SWKS +8.9%, WAL +2.8%, GOOG +1.2%, RP -26.5%, AMD -17.9%, IBM -1.8% following earnings/guidance...China property sector is in focus with the release of June property price data...Asian markets were cautipus after Ukrain developments..Malaysian Airlines (MAS MK) -11%...- BOJ released the minutes of its June policy meeting, reiterating most members agree on continued easing until 2% inflation is stable. BOJ also agreed to monitor risks and adjust policy if needed, while some members saw the easing effects intensifying. Nikkei225 is the underperformer among the regional indices, tracking firmer JPY receiving the safe-haven bid during the US session when USD/JPY fell below 101.10 - 1-week low...Nikkei -1.2% Hang Seng -0.31% Shanghai +0.25%
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Amazon Nudged to Weigh Content Expansion Amid Fox Bid: Real M&A 2014-07-17 23:37:16.266 GMT
(For a Real M&A column news alert: SALT REALMNA <GO>.)
By Brooke Sutherland July 18 (Bloomberg) -- After Rupert Murdoch’s attempt to grab Time Warner Inc., online giants Amazon.com Inc. and Google Inc. may decide to accelerate their expansion into content. The bid from Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. would create the world’s biggest media company and bring HBO’s “Game of Thrones” and “The Lego Movie” into Murdoch’s fold. Amazon has started creating original TV shows, and Google’s YouTube has funded filmmakers to fill new channels, though neither is a formidable competitor to Netflix Inc. or Hulu LLC. A takeout of Time Warner could drive Google and Amazon to get more serious about expanding, said CRT Capital Group LLC. The Internet companies may prefer to sign licensing deals or build more content on their own, said JMP Group Inc. If they wanted to be bolder, Google or Amazon could buy their way to more programming with a purchase of “The Hunger Games” maker Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., or Amazon could even buy Electronic Arts Inc., CRT said. French video-game maker Ubisoft Entertainment would be easier to digest, said Bank of Montreal. Google could even go as far as to make a bid for Time Warner, Wunderlich Securities Inc. said. Should Fox and Time Warner combine, “a lot of chips are in one hat at that point,” Neil Doshi, an analyst at CRT, said in a phone interview. Amazon and Google would “have to get pretty aggressive in terms of how they think about content, what they want to do.” Representatives for Mountain View, California-based Google and Seattle-based Amazon didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Offer Confirmation
Time Warner, the owner of HBO and TNT, confirmed this week that it received a more than $75 billion offer from Fox. While the New York-based company rejected the bid, Murdoch is willing to pay even more, people with knowledge of the matter said, a sign the billionaire is undeterred by the rebuff. The confirmation comes after Time Warner Chief Executive Officer Jeff Bewkes was asked last week whether Google or Fox would be interested in a purchase. If Time Warner is in play, Google may be inclined to weigh an offer, Wunderlich said July 16. The potential acquisition sparked a rally in media stocks representing about $90 billion of shareholder value as investors bet it may presage more consolidation. Content providers could combine to build scale and strengthen their power to negotiate with distributors, which are striking deals of their own. It could also mean Amazon and Google may want to double down on content.
Working Plans
Proprietary shows and movies are appealing to the Internet companies because it gives consumers one more reason to engage with their platforms. Amazon has already been developing programming and financing pilot episodes for children’s shows and comedies to air through the company’s Instant Video service. A few years ago, Google announced it would spend about $100 million to support video programming on YouTube. The company also said last year that the site would begin selling subscriptions to film and TV services over the Internet to compete with Netflix. Amazon and Google “are trying to build this consumer ecosystem to be the one-stop shop for media consumption,” Kerry Rice, an analyst at Needham & Co., said in a phone interview.
Exclusive Producers
A takeover of a company such as $4.4 billion Lions Gate by either Amazon or Google could make sense, said Doshi of CRT. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., China’s biggest e-commerce company, is teaming up with Lions Gate to stream Hollywood movies and TV shows through a new set-top box. “A lot of these movie studios want to get deeper entrenched in online,” Doshi said. “And if Amazon or Netflix or Google has deep pockets and is willing to pay a lot of money to do deals, I don’t know if it would be too far off for one of these companies to potentially acquire a movie studio and be able to make movies exclusively for their subscribers.” For Google, a deal would bolster the YouTube brand and allow the company to charge more for advertising on a high- quality film, the analyst said. Yesterday, the company reported sales that exceeded analyst estimates. Amazon could consider buying a video-game maker, maybe even a company as large as Electronic Arts, which is valued at $11.6 billion, to drive more people to gaming on its Fire TV system, according to Doshi. Ubisoft, with a market value of about $2 billion, may be a more logical first step into video-game content for Amazon should it pursue that path, said Edward Williams of BMO.
‘Left Field’
“Amazon could step in and buy a console game company and then look to help that company take its content onto mobile through the Kindle ecosystem,” the analyst said in a phone interview from New York. “Buying an Ubisoft, which is a fraction of the size of EA, financially is just an easier one to swallow. It’s definitely a left-field move, but it’d be kind of an intriguing one.” Representatives for Redwood City, California-based EA and Ubisoft said their companies don’t comment on speculation. A representative for Lions Gate, based in Santa Monica, California, didn’t respond to requests for comment.
Better Yet
Getting bigger in content doesn’t necessarily mean acquisitions. Buying a major media company is a risky and expensive endeavor, and Amazon and Google may prefer to just license shows and movies or negotiate a joint venture arrangement, said James McQuivey, an analyst at Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Forrester Research Inc. “Frankly, owning the content creates all kinds of hassles,” he said in a phone interview. “I think most of these companies would want to think twice.” Buying an established content producer could undermine the neutrality of the companies’ platforms, said Ron Josey of JMP Securities, a unit of JMP Group. Amazon and Google may also prefer to develop their own shows and movies. Such a move would mimic Netflix, whose “House of Cards” and “Orange is the New Black” have grown in popularity. “Both of these companies are sufficiently large, they can sort of do whatever they want,” said Josey, a New York-based analyst. Google and Amazon probably “feel they can at least give it a good try on their own before they have to go out and buy someone to have that type of offering. History suggests that they believe they can build things just as well as anybody.”
For Related News and Information: Fox’s Play for Content Throne Buoys Discovery, Scripps: Real M&A NSN N8V09B6JTSF2 <GO> Murdoch Said Open to Offer More Than $75 Billion for Time Warner NSN N8TQH76S972H <GO> Liberty Global $824 Million ITV Stake Shows Value of Content NSN N8V7ET6KLVRD <GO> Google deal news: GOOGL US <Equity> TCNI MNA <GO> Amazon deal news: AMZN US <Equity> TCNI MNA <GO> Bloomberg Industries, diversified entertainment: BI DVEN <GO> Top deal news: DTOP <GO> Real M&A columns: NI REALMNA <GO>
To contact the reporter on this story: Brooke Sutherland in New York at +1-212-617-0448 or bsutherland7@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Beth Williams at +1-212-617-2307 or bewilliams@bloomberg.net Whitney Kisling
Asian Market Update: China property price growth slows further
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA JUN NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 8 OF 70 CITIES V 15 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 69 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - NPD: June total US video game sales $736M, +24% y/y
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -1.3%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,951
***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Aug gold -0.1% at $1,316, Aug crude oil +0.6% at $103.83/brl, Sept Copper flat at $3.22/lb - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$1.5B in 2.75% bonds due 2019; Avg yield: 2.8736%; Bid-to-cover: 2.59x - (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥2.46T in 0.1% (0.2% prior) 5-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.147% v 0.185% prior; Bid to cover: 4.14x v 4.62x prior - (US) Weekly Fed Balance Sheet Total Assets Week ending July 16th: $4.40T v $4.38T prior; Reserve Bank Credit: $4.36T v $4.34T prior; M1 y/y change: 11.1% v 10.9% w/w; M2 y/y change: 6.5% v 6.4% w/w - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1568 v 6.1564 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Jul 8th; 6th consecutive weaker setting)
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - China property sector is in focus with the release of June property price data. Across all-70 cities prices fell m/m for the 2nd consecutive month, down -0.5% v -0.2% prior, while y/y price growth slowed to 4.2% from 5.4%. Overall, new home prices rose in just 8 cities vs 15 in the prior month and fell in 52 cities vs 35 prior. Existing home sales price declines were pronounced even in the top-tier cities, with 1.3% m/m declines in Beijing and -0.7% in Shanghai. Top property names are trading higher however on indication of more relaxed sentiment toward easing property curbs from a Chinese govt official. Newly appointed Land and Resources (MLR) Minister Chen Zhenggao said the local govt can introduce policies on property market according to their situation. Those comments come in the context of the statement from Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development official overnight who said the govt supports reasonable housing needs, but would curb speculative demand.
- Sentiment started out cautious overall across the Asian markets, tracking late-session selloff on Wall Street. There is little certainty over the details in the downing of Malaysian Airlines aircraft in east Ukraine, as Western leaders express their condemnation for the presumed terrorist act and call for international investigations on the ground. Rebel leaders said they will hand over the aircraft blackbox to Moscow and that they will agree to a ceasefire to facilitate the recovery operation. Separatists are also pleading innocence, stating they do not have the required technology to down an aircraft flying at 10km altitude, while Ukraine Pres Poroshenko said he was certain his side did not fire on any aerial targets. Russia Pres Putin said the entire conflict is to blame for the tragedy, but that ultimately the fault is with Kiev for conducting military action in the region. Malaysian Airlines shares were down 10%, and most international carriers have now formally diverted their routes away from Ukraine. Geopolitical tensions were also emanating out of the Middle East, where Israeli govt confirmed it has started ground operations in Gaza.
- BOJ released the minutes of its June policy meeting, reiterating most members agree on continued easing until 2% inflation is stable. BOJ also agreed to monitor risks and adjust policy if needed, while some members saw the easing effects intensifying. Nikkei225 is the underperformer among the regional indices, tracking firmer JPY receiving the safe-haven bid during the US session when USD/JPY fell below 101.10 - 1-week low.
- Among notable US names reporting results after market close, GOOG is up modestly despite missing on earnings as paid clicks rose 25% y/y. Seagate and IBM are down about 2% each in extended session, and AMD is down a pronounced 19% on contracting gross margins and soft revenue guidance for Q3.
***Equities*** US markets: - GTIV: Rejects Kindred offer; receives alternative proposal from another party at $17.25/shr (8% higher than $16/shr offer from KND); does not disclose the name of the alternative party; +10.9% afterhours - SWKS: Reports Q3 $0.83 v $0.80e, R$587.0M v $570Me; +8.3% afterhours - CE: Reports Q2 $1.47 v $1.23e, R$1.77B v $1.72Be; Raises FY14 EPS growth to 15-17% (implies $5.18-5.27 v $5.09e) from 12-14%; +2.4% afterhours - MATW: Reports Q2 $0.86 v $0.80e, R$280.0M v $264Me; +1.1% afterhours - GOOG: Reports Q2 $6.08 v $6.23e, R$12.7B v $12.4Be; +1.0% afterhours - PETM: Said to be interviewing investment banks, seeking advice amid investors' demand for sale - financial press; +0.9% afterhours
- COF: Reports Q1 $2.04 v $1.79e, R$5.5B v $5.43Be; -0.3% afterhours (after initially rising over 0.6%) - STX: Reports Q4 $1.10 (adj) v $1.10e, R$3.30B v $3.32Be; Guides Q1 Rev at least $3.55B v $3.52Be; Q1 product GM to be relatively flat - conf call; -1.7% afterhours - IBM: Reports Q2 $4.32 v $4.31e, R$24.4B v $24.2Be; -2.0% afterhours - AMD: Reports Q2 $0.02 v $0.03e, R$1.44B v $1.44Be; Guides Q3 Rev +2%, +/- 3% q/q implies $1.47B v $1.58Be; -19.0% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Unicharm 8113.JP +1.8% (press speculation on Q1 results); Qingdao Doublestar 000599.CN -1.7% (prelim H1 results) - Financials: Haitong Securities 6837.HK -0.3% (H1 prelim results); China Vanke 000002.CN +3.8%, Poly Real Estate 600048.CN +6.6% (China Jun housing price data) - Materials: OZ Minerals OZL.AU -0.7% (Q2 production results); BBMG Corp 2009.HK -1.4% (H1 guidance) - Energy: China Shenhua Energy 1088.HK -1.4% (Jun coal output) - Technology: Sharp Corp 6753.JP -3.1% (press speculation on Q1 results); Forgame 484.HK -10.5% (H1 guidance) - Utilities: Yaskawa Electric 6506.JP +2.9% (Q1 results)