FT : Investors turn to small boutiques for wealth management

Investors turn to small boutiques for wealth management

Investors are rejecting large fund managers and turning to small boutiques to handle their wealth because they are more nimble and quicker to react to the twists and turns of the market.
About 41 per cent of wealth managers and multi managers expect to increase their asset allocation to boutiques over the next 12 to 18 months, according to research by fund distribution company Harrington Cooper.

The survey conducted among 80 wealth managers and multi managers in the UK in September and October also found that only 23 per cent expect to increase the percentage of their assets in passive funds, or those that track the market.
Wealth managers hold only between 1 per cent to 10 per cent of their total assets in passive funds. Ninety-four per cent invest up to half of their total fund assets in boutiques.
However, despite these findings, other research has found that passive funds have become more popular with investors in the past two years as these groups have slashed their fees, while many active managers are underperforming.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch found in research, published last week, that fewer than one in five active mangers beat the market this year in the US equity space. This is the worst performance since 2003 when BofA first started gathering the data.
The BofA data covered all US large company equity funds, including those tilted towards value stocks or growth companies, that are actively managed. Only 17.7 per cent are beating the Russell 1000 index of large-cap stocks so far this year. That compares with 40.5 per cent for 2013 as a whole.
Active managers have struggled this year because very large companies have outperformed, which makes it harder for active managers to generate returns above the market.
This is because active managers tend to have a bias towards smaller companies. They find it harder to build up overweight positions, or increase their allocations in stocks of very large companies above that of the index, because of the size of these groups.
The difficulties of the large company US equity funds contrasts with support among some wealth managers for allocating to boutiques.
Key reasons for allocating to boutiques include: The belief the interests of investors and the fund manager are more aligned within boutiques owing to their small size and the view that they are better placed to deliver returns in excess of the market because they tend not to try and replicate the index they are benchmarked to.
Some investors warn that small boutiques do not have the ability to diversify like their bigger rivals. The concentration of their portfolios in certain asset classes or regions can also lead to big losses, if those particular assets or regions underperform.

WSJ : We Need Stock Prices to Fall 25%

We Need Stock Prices to Fall 25%
At Current Prices, Investors Should Have Mixed Feelings

In early October, as share prices wobbled, I had high hopes that U.S. stocks would plummet to attractive levels. Instead, shares have shot higher, adding to the rip-roaring bull market that has seen stocks triple since March 2009.

Jonathan Clements
Jonathan Clements
The long rally has done wonders for my portfolio’s value. But it also means stocks are now more richly valued—and expected returns are lower. Unless you never again plan to add to your stock portfolio, you should have mixed feelings about the market’s heady gains.

Think about all the money you’ll invest in stocks in the years ahead, whether it’s with new savings, reinvested dividends or by shifting money from elsewhere in your portfolio. Wouldn’t you rather buy at 2009 prices than at today’s nosebleed valuations?

Indeed, I find it hard to get enthused about the prospects for U.S. stocks over the next 10 years. Consider the three components of the market’s return: the dividend yield, corporate-earnings growth and the value put on those earnings, as reflected in the market’s price/earnings ratio.

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We already know the dividend yield: It’s 2% for the S&P 500. But big question marks hang over the other two components of the market’s return.

How Fast Will Earnings Grow?
Over the 10 years through mid-2014, the per-share earnings of the S&P 500 companies grew 6.3% a year, far ahead of the 3.6% nominal (including inflation) growth in GDP. But there are three reasons to fear slower earnings growth over the next 10 years.

First, the recent gains have been driven by rising profit margins. After-tax corporate profits rose from 7.9% of GDP in mid-2004 to 10.6% in early 2014. Without that boost, the S&P 500’s earnings would have lagged behind GDP growth.

Suppose profits remain at 10.6% of GDP, rather than reverting to 7.9%. Even in that scenario, investors likely wouldn’t be happy, because corporate profits would grow no faster than the economy.

That brings us to the second reason for worry: Economic growth may disappoint. Over the past 50 years, roughly half the economy’s 3% after-inflation growth has come from increases in the working population and half from productivity gains. But the labor force is now growing more slowly, as the entrance of new workers barely outpaces retiring baby boomers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the civilian labor force will expand 0.5% a year over the 10 years through 2022, versus 0.7% for 2002-12 and 1.2% for 1992-2002.

On top of that, many American families simply can’t afford to spend freely, either because they’re unemployed or underemployed or they remain handcuffed by hefty amounts of debt. That, too, could crimp economic growth.

A third reason to worry: Over the past 10 years, companies have bought back as much stock as they’ve issued. That’s unusual—and it may not last. Historically, shareholders have seen their claim on the nation’s profits diluted by two percentage points a year, as new companies emerge and existing companies issue new shares.

What Will Happen to Valuations?
Let’s be optimistic: Suppose after-tax corporate profits remain at 10.6% of GDP, both nominal GDP and overall corporate profits grow 5% annually over the next decade, and earnings per share also climb 5%, because companies continue to buy back stock at the same pace they issue shares. If all that comes to pass, stock prices would also climb 5% a year—if we don’t get any change in valuations.

That’s a big “if.” Consider the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, which looks at share prices compared with average inflation-adjusted earnings for the past 10 years. The average for this P/E was 19.6 over the past 50 years and 16.6 over the past 100 years.

But since 1990, the average has been 25.3—which is pretty much where we are today. A bullish interpretation: Stocks have been richly valued for a long time, so perhaps we won’t see a big market decline and stocks can hang in there at current valuations.

Where does that leave us? Add 5% annual share-price gains to the 2% dividend yield, and you’re looking at a 7% total return over the next decade, while inflation runs at maybe 2% or so. And that, I would argue, is a scenario where everything goes right.

My hope: We get a 25% decline in share prices. That would make the market more reasonably valued and provide a buffer against disappointment—and I’d have greater confidence that my next stock-market purchase would collect a decent long-run return.

WSJ : Halliburton: Drilling Into the Deal Math

Halliburton: Drilling Into the Deal Math
Merger Could Make Sense on Paper, But Hurdles Loom

If you’re going to do a deal that might irk your customers, the government, and even the company you are buying, it had better be worth it.

And on paper, at least, purchasing Baker Hughes BHI +1.94% could make sense for Halliburton. HAL +2.40% But the potential backlash presents a big hurdle to getting a deal between the two oil-field services giants whose talks were revealed by The Wall Street Journal last week. Little wonder there is tension between the two sides and the real possibility that Halliburton goes hostile.

Crucial parameters such as price aren’t publicly known. Assume, though, that Halliburton pays a 30% premium to where Baker Hughes’s shares closed on Wednesday before the news broke. That would imply a price of $66 and change per share, 11% above where Baker Hughes was trading on Friday.

At an implied value of $28.7 billion versus Halliburton’s own market capitalization of $46.7 billion, much of the price tag would have to be paid in stock: Assume 70% with the rest being cash. That would leave the combined company with manageable net debt of about 1.5 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

Together, Halliburton and Baker are forecast to make $9.5 billion in earnings before interest and taxes next year, using FactSet data. Assuming it pays 5% interest on combined net debt of $17.6 billion—which includes the $8.6 billion of new borrowing to fund the cash paid to Baker Hughes’s shareholders—earnings before taxes would be $8.6 billion.

Assume an effective tax rate of 32.5% and net income would be $5.8 billion. Factor in the new stock issued to Baker Hughes’s investors, and earnings in 2015 come out at $4.77 per Halliburton share—two cents lower than the current consensus forecast.

Now factor in synergies. Assuming 5% of Baker Hughes’s costs could be eliminated—a typical rule of thumb—this would add $1 billion to annual pretax profits. Plug that into the model, after factoring in some upfront costs and taxes, and combined earnings jump to $5.34 a share—11% higher than analysts’ current estimate.

The other big, though more abstract, prize is the potential for the combined company’s shares to be awarded a higher stock-market multiple to reflect its better competitive positioning. At Wednesday’s close, the average multiple of 2015 earnings for Baker Hughes and Halliburton was 10.8 times, a 28% discount to bigger rival Schlumberger. SLB +0.50%

Say Halliburton-Baker closes that gap by half, implying a new multiple of 12.9 times. Applying this to the pro forma earnings figure results in a market value of almost $84 billion—25% more than Wednesday’s combined total.

All these numbers are highly malleable, especially with oil prices moving rapidly, but two things are clear: First, there is enough potential money on the table to justify a conversation. Second, realizing those riches would rest squarely on a bigger company not only extracting synergies but also being rewarded with a higher stock multiple.

Therein lies the deal’s big challenge. Halliburton and Baker Hughes combined would effectively create duopolies in at least four different business areas, controlling, along with Schlumberger, between 70% and 90% of the market for things like well logging and drill bits, according to Kurt Hallead of RBC Capital Markets.

That would be bound to alert antitrust regulators, likely egged on by oil companies not thrilled at the idea of suppliers getting together just as energy prices are sinking. Even if a deal were approved, the remedies required could eat into both the synergies and the potential gain from the stock being given a higher multiple.

The potential rewards of a Halliburton-Baker deal could be big, but getting them from the spreadsheet to Wall Street would be tough.

>>> Baker Hughes Announces Receipt of Director Nominations from Halliburton;

Baker Hughes Announces Receipt of Director Nominations from Halliburton; BHI considers this a pressure tactic 

Baker Hughes today announced receipt of notice from Halliburton Company that it intends to nominate candidates to replace the entire board of directors of Baker Hughes at its Apr. 2015 annual meeting. 

The nominations followed discussions between the parties regarding a potential business combination transaction, and Halliburton's refusal to improve its first and only value proposal. Baker Hughes considers the notice to be an attempt by Halliburton to pressure the Baker Hughes board into accepting a transaction with Halliburton on Halliburton's terms.

The discussions began after Baker Hughes received an unsolicited proposal from Halliburton without prior notice on Oct. 13, 2014 to acquire all of the outstanding shares of the Company in a proposed transaction that Halliburton claimed would produce $2 billion in synergies after any required divestitures. 

The discussions continued over the following weeks and substantial progress was made in analyzing the substantial antitrust issues that would be involved in any such transaction, allocating antitrust risk between Halliburton and Baker Hughes, and negotiating merger documentation.

After receiving the Company's counter proposal on value, Halliburton refused to increase its first and only value proposal and, among other things, refused not to solicit the Company's employees during the period before closing. Instead, Halliburton delivered the director nomination notice to the 

Martin Craighead, Chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes stated: "Baker Hughes is disappointed that Halliburton has chosen to seek to replace the entire Baker Hughes board rather than continue the private discussions between the parties. Baker Hughes believes that Halliburton's various attempts at coercive tactics, instead of being willing to negotiate a reasonable value for the Company's stock and despite having stated twice that they have room to increase the value of their offer, are attempts to control both sides of a negotiation and are entirely inappropriate.”

Consistent with its fiduciary duties, the Baker Hughes board, in consultation with its financial and legal advisors, has carefully reviewed and considered Halliburton's initial proposal and unanimously determined that it is not at an adequate value level and therefore not in the best interests of the Company's stockholders.

Accordingly, the Company's stockholders are advised to not take any action at this time. Mr. Craighead sent the attached responses to Halliburton's CEO during the negotiation process.

>>> Ansaldo Breda suitor Insigma looking for new partners in China to make bid

Ansaldo Breda suitor Insigma looking for new partners in China to make bid 

Insigma, the Chinese technology company, is looking for private partners in China to make a bid for Finmeccanica’s assets Ansaldo Breda.

This was reported by Italian-language daily Il Sole 24 Ore, quoting unnamed sources.

Insigma is unable to present a standalone offer before the deadline of 17 November. Therefore, it is seeking partners to make a combined offer if it will be allowed to after the deadline, the article noted.

Meanwhile, Hitachi the only remaining bidder in the race might ask for an extension to conduct further due diligence. The report said that Finmeccanica will assess the matter with its advisers UBS and Mediobanca.

In particular, Hitachi is looking into Breda’s book order. In addition, Hitachi will have to buy Ansaldo Sts together with Ansaldo Breda as previously reported.

Finmeccanica’s stake in Ansaldo Sts would cost EUR 600m and the potential buyer would have to launch a public offer since the company is listed. The report quoted financial sources as saying that the EUR 600m also includes the debts of both Sts and Breda.


Source Il Sole 24 Ore

>>> Shaftesbury stakebuilding by Samuel Tak Lee prompts takeover speculation

Shaftesbury stakebuilding by Samuel Tak Lee prompts takeover speculation 

Samuel Tak Lee, a Hong Kong-based billionaire, has been amassing a position in the UK-listed property group Shaftesbury, fuelling speculation of a takeover bid, The Sunday Times reported.

Shaftesbury confirmed on 20 October that Lee’s stake had crossed the 5% threshold.

The item reported speculation that Lee might table a bid for Shaftesbury or seek to acquire the central London-focused company’s Chinatown properties. Lee already holds the nearby Langham Estate and is considered by Shaftesbury to be a “neighbour” who can see its portfolio’s value, the report noted.

Lee is believed to have proceeded with the stakebuilding on the advice of Langham Estate chief executive Ahsan Ellahi, the item reported. It said Ellahi did not wish to comment on the matter last week.

The report said Invesco Perpetual also recently upped its holding in Shaftesbury, crossing the 11% threshold in September, as confirmed by the property company on 20 October.

The sovereign wealth fund of Norway owns a stake of slightly more than 9% in Shaftesbury, the report said.


Source Sunday Times

>>> Saipem preferred buyer could be from the GCC or Italy

Saipem preferred buyer could be from the GCC or Italy
Saipem, the listed Italian oil industry services group controlled by the petroleum giant Eni, is more likely to attract interest from the GCC or Italy. This was reported as part of an analysis in Milano Finanza which did not quote sources. The report said that Rosneft of Russia, which has expressed an interest in Saipem, is an unlikely candidate. This is not only because of the sanction against Russia, but also because of a proposal previously made by Rosneft to former Eni Chief Executive Paolo Scaroni to have a stake in Saipem in exchange of some warranted orders has been rebuffed and is likely to be refused in the future. The report said that Rosneft has debts of USD 55bn and has asked the Russian Government for USD 45bn.

Subsea 7 and Seadrill of Norway, also mentioned as potential buyers, are unlikely buyers because they have contract with low marginality. Instead, the report said that either an Italian solution with Fondo Strategico Italiano a local financial institution, or a Sovereign Wealth Fund from the GCC where Saipem is present is a more likely and preferred solution by many investment banks such as Mediobanca. The report said that Citi, which is advising on the sale, will receive offers for Saipem in January 2015.
 
Milano Finanza weekend edition

>>> Barron’s summary: positive on Ford, BC, CMI

Barron’s summary: positive on Ford, BC, CMI 

Cover Story: Strong exports and dynamic economies have put Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand-taken together-on the path to becoming the "New China"; Their collective economies are smaller than China's, but their collective annual output, at $641B last year, equals that of China 20 years ago; Among other attractions are low wages, prompting foreign companies to pressure Chinese suppliers to set up shop in these countries; Funds and ETFs are the easiest way to play the New China (+ MSMLX, WAFMX, THD, VNM), in addition to some stocks (+Vietnam Dairy Products, Kinh Do, Hoa Phat Group, Land & Houses, Thai Union Frozen Products). 

Features: Positive on F: Automaker had a rough year due to high warranty costs, poor results in Russia and South America, and lost production during F-150 transition, but the new aluminum model of the iconic truck should give the company a boost, and shares could rise 30%; Positive on BC: Leading maker of recreational powerboats and marine engines in the U.S. has undergone a major restructuring, recently posting a 13% rise in revenue and an earnings win, and stands poised to benefit as economy grows and consumer confidence rises; shares could rise 20% or more; Positive on CMI: Worry about competition facing maker of diesel and natural-gas truck engines, which has sent shares down, appears overdone, and they could rise by as much as 15% over the next year. 

Tech Trader: Cautious on T, VZ, CMCSA, NFLX: Columnist Alexander Eule says President Obama's statement in support of net neutrality has created turmoil on Wall Street; some analysts feel full imposition of Title II regulations would be a disaster for the cable and telecom industries and are calling for a less onerous approach. 

Trader: Positive on HAL, BHI: A merger would bring large synergies, says Alexander Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management, but Baker Hughes would be hard-pressed to approve a deal at less than $75 per share, where the stock was just a few months ago; "A low-yielding Treasury market appears to be in the cards for 2015's first half, which makes stocks more attractive; Cautious on ANET: At current valuation, stock will meet expectations for the next few quarters, but growth is likely to slow. 

Small Caps: Positive on BHLB: Share price of the bank, one of New England's largest, has been restrained over concerns about its ability to do more deals due to relatively low capital base, but a solid acquisition could lead to a 15% rally. 

Mutual Funds: Interview with Dennis Lynch, Portfolio Manager, Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund Growth Portfolio (top ten holdings: FB, AMZN, ILMN, TWTR, ISRG, GOOG, PCLN, TSLA, GOOGL, CRM). Special Report on the $2T ETF industry, which offers more than 1,600 products for investors. A panel, including Sam Katzman of Constellation Wealth Advisors, Terri Jacobsen of UBS, Frank Marzano of GM Advisory Group, and Ben Johnson of Morningstar discuss the best strategies for investors. 

European Trader: Positive on Casino Guichard Perrachon: French food retailer is in a sector that is seeing lower profits overall, but management has been quick to identify trends and re-focus operations, and investors could see a handsome payout.

Asian Trader: In Japan, "there is some evidence that the value-added tax is undermining the stimulative effects of Abenomics, which combines central-bank easing with added government spending to try to get Japan's economy growing.” 

Emerging Markets: Though the Mexican government has adopted a number of finance, energy, and market reforms, investors should still expect setbacks as the economy improves. 

Commodities: "U.S. cattle futures have posted some of the biggest gains among commodities this year, and the rally looks to be far from over.” 

Follow-Up: Cautious on HAS: Partnering with DWA makes sense for toymaker, but since the studio has produced neither hits nor free cash lately, a buyout doesn't make sense, and could leave Hasbro saddled with significant debt and lower free cash flow; Positive on SRC: REIT that owns buildings used by retailers such as WMT and HD has restructured debt, improved credit quality, and diversified through acquisitions, and remains a good buy for investors. 

CEO Spotlight: Profile of MTN chief Robert Katz, who has created a new business model for the skiing business. 

Streetwise: Cautious on SHLD: Understanding the value of Sears' real estate would seem to be essential to investing in the stock, says Jacqueline Doherty, who calls for more disclosure from the retailer.

Barron's : Japan’s Abe Faces a Key Test This Week

Japan’s Abe Faces a Key Test This Week
The prime minister could call for new “snap” elections if Monday’s GDP reading shows anemic growth. There are risks no matter what.

Japan is full of surprises these days. It’s like a hospital patient who refuses to enter the operating room after getting a morphine injection. Better to debate the treatment and enjoy the drug’s pleasant effects than go under the knife.

Last week, Japanese media reported that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will dissolve the lower house of the Parliament and call for snap elections in December that would allow citizens to weigh in on a potentially painful tax hike next year. The possibility that Abe would postpone the tax hike before the election cheered investors, who drove the stock market up 23.6% as the yen fell below 116 to the dollar.

At issue is a second consumption-tax hike. In April, Japan raised the sales tax from 5% to 8% and is scheduled for another increase, to 10%, next October, unless Abe can redo the 2012 legislation that mandated the procedure. The hikes are intended to address a government deficit equivalent to 7.6% of the nation’s GDP.

There is some evidence that the value-added tax is undermining the stimulative effects of Abenomics, which combines central-bank easing with added government spending to try to get Japan’s economy growing. In the second quarter, ended in June, Japan’s economy contracted by 7.1%, as consumers anticipated the change—spending more in the first quarter and then tightening their belts. Monthly government surveys showed that Japanese workers felt their lots worsen in the three months through October. Not surprisingly, the tax hike is unpopular. Almost three-quarters of respondents recently polled by public broadcaster NHK said the second hike should be delayed or scrapped altogether.

Abe has said he would decide on the tax after seeing Japan’s first estimate of third-quarter gross-domestic-product data, scheduled for release on Monday, Nov. 17. The 2012 legislation gave him an escape clause, allowing the VAT rate to be raised only “on the premise of a favorable turn in economic conditions,” specifically about 2% real economic growth. But Monday’s economic data are unlikely to cut him any slack with the fiscal hawks in his ruling coalition: Economists expect modest 2.1% growth in the third quarter. As a result, Abe could call for the quick parliamentary elections as early as Tuesday.

A snap election is really about using voter discontent to reinvigorate Abenomics, says Tobias Harris at Teneo Intelligence, a geopolitical research firm. First, Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party would be the likely winner, retaining a similar number of seats in Parliament; the LDP had a 37% approval rating in October, while its biggest opponent, the Democratic Party of Japan, had just 6% approval. Second, if the approval rating of the Abe cabinet continues to fall but the Democratic Party of Japan doesn’t gain seats, a member of Abe’s own party could challenge him in the regular elections, slated for next September. A snap election would reset the clock, giving Abenomics new momentum and another four years.

But opportunistic political maneuvers have side effects. In late October, the Bank of Japan launched more quantitative easing, keeping the central bank’s promise from 2012 to help ease the pain from any tax hike. If Abe doesn’t meet his part of the bargain, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda could pare its massive easing, says CLSA’s Japan strategist Nicholas Smith. “Governor Kuroda was in [Japan’s] Finance Ministry earlier in his career and very much subscribed to the ministry’s view of fiscal responsibility,” notes Teneo’s Harris. Abe will have to figure a way to appease Kuroda postelection.

So far, Japan’s equity market is a yen-driven trade, so investors not hedged in yen do not benefit as much. While the Topix has shot up 20% from its mid-October trough, the dollar-denominated iShares MSCI Japan exchange-traded fund (ticker: EWJ) gained only 6.7%.

But an Abe victory could be a catalyst for a breakout. If the yen stays near 115 per dollar, Morgan Stanley reckons the Topix could reach 1,865 by September, from 1,400 last week.

There are three investment themes worth noting. If Abe delays the second hike, retailers would be first-order beneficiaries. J Front Retailing (3086.Japan) and Isetan Mitsukoshi Holding (3099.Japan) both had a nice run last week and trade, respectively, at 9.8 times and 13.2 times enterprise value to earnings, in line with their five-year historical average. Japan’s $1.3 trillion government pension fund has promised to buy more equities, so brokers like Daiwa Securities (8601.Japan) could benefit. And, of course, there are real estate developers with heavy exposures to Tokyo’s prime assets, such as Mitsubishi Estate (8802.Japan), which I discussed in a previous column (“How to Avoid Japan’s Muddle,” Sept. 26).

MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE SEA, mainland China was also at the cusp of a technical breakout, on news that the Hong Kong Shanghai Connect will open on Monday. The program will allow money to flow freely between the two bourses. Stocks with listings on both exchanges started last week with their Shanghai shares trading at a 5% discount, but the Shanghai shares rallied to close at a slight premium. On Tuesday, Shanghai turnover rose 32% from Monday, hitting a record high of $95 billion. The Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Index ETF (ASHR) rose 3.7% as of Thursday’s close, far outperforming the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), which tracks Hong Kong–listed stocks.

Barron's : Vail Resorts’ CEO: Transforming the Business of Skiing

With ski season well under way in the Western U.S., the forecast for Vail Resorts is sunny and balmy. The nation’s largest owner and operator of ski resorts recently scored a big win by acquiring Utah’s popular Park City Mountain Resort after a lengthy legal battle. Vail, based in Broomfield, Colo., plans to combine Park City with another of its properties, Canyons Resort, to create the largest ski resort in the country, which it hopes will become a mecca for “destination” skiers worldwide.

The Park City purchase, like much else at Vail (ticker: MTN), reflects the strategic vision of CEO Robert Katz, 47, a former Wall Street deal maker who has run the company for the past eight years. In that span, he has applied business precepts common in the lodging and cruise-ship industries to the more informal world of skiing, markedly enhancing the experience of customers and boosting shareholder returns.


Katz, a Wall Street veteran, is upgrading Vail’s slopes and amenities. Photo: Ray Ng for Barron’s

“The company literally transformed under his leadership,” says Roland Hernandez, Vail Resorts’ lead independent director and the former chairman of Telemundo. “He created a fundamentally different business model for skiing.”

Katz’s model relies, in part, on the so-called Epic Pass, a discounted season pass that gives holders access to Vail’s 12 resorts and 10 other ski properties around the world. Introduced in 2008 at a preseason price of $579, Epic Pass gives Vail a major competitive advantage and predictable, recurring revenue. It also allows the company to leverage its growing scale. Today, the pass accounts for 40% of annual ticket revenue.

VAIL RESORTS, FORMERLY known as Vail Associates, was founded by a World War II mountain-division ski trooper, who trained in the Western U.S. and saw its potential as a ski destination. He opened a resort in Vail, Colo., in 1962. The company gradually expanded through acquisitions, adding the Keystone and Breckenridge resorts in Colorado in 1997.

Under Katz, Vail has acquired the Northstar, Kirkwood, and Heavenly resorts near Lake Tahoe, Calif.; Afton Alps, in Minnesota; and Mount Brighton, in Michigan, as well as a summer resort in Wyoming. It also owns Beaver Creek, in Colorado.

The mountain division, encompassing the ski resorts, ski schools, and dining, contributed 77% of fiscal 2014 revenue of $1.3 billion (the fiscal year ended on July 31). The company’s lodging segment manages hotel properties, including RockResorts, and its real estate arm owns and develops property around the resorts.

Vail was pummeled during the financial crisis, as occupancy rates and customer spending fell. Determined to avoid layoffs, Katz persuaded employees to agree to salary reductions in return for stock. He also skipped his own paychecks. The shares plummeted 76% from mid-2007 to March 2009, when they bottomed at $14.80, but have since rebounded to a recent $87.85. They spiked 12% when the Park City deal finally was announced.



Vail is expected to generate $341 million in fiscal 2015 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—a 30% gain. Shares aren’t cheap at 11 times estimated Ebitda, but the company’s largest holder, Baron Capital Management, looks for the stock to double in the next five years. “I’m betting on Katz,” says Ron Baron, whose firm holds a near-15% stake. “I don’t want to sell, but some foreign [investor] who wants to own U.S. real estate might be willing to pay 12-13 times cash flow.”

BASED ON INDUSTRY statistics, skiing seems a troubled business. RRC Associates, a market-research firm, reports that annual snow-sport visits per 1,000 people fell to 180 in 2013 from 220 in 1980. In roughly the same span, according to the National Ski Areas Association, the number of operating ski resorts in the U.S. fell to 470 from 735, as the high cost of snow-making, coupled with the stress of warmer weather, forced smaller, undercapitalized facilities to close. Yet customer spending at ski resorts has been rising; it climbed to $7.1 billion in the 2012-13 season from $6.1 billion three years prior, the NSAA says.

Vail has been particularly astute in developing products and services to separate customers from their money, albeit in highly enjoyable ways. During warmer winter weather, for instance, visitors spend less time on the mountain and more in the spa, or tubing, or taking snow-boarding lessons. As Katz sees it, “Our company is less about skiing and more about vacations.”

That’s because he helped make it so.

When Vail introduced the Epic Pass, Katz says, “people thought I was crazy. They assumed we had made a mistake and that the board would fire me and undo it.”

But the CEO figured that skiers who purchased the pass would corral their friends into joining them on the slopes, skiing more and buying more food, hotel rooms, and ski lessons. Even at a current preseason rate of $769, the pass is a steal compared with an early-bird price of $1,985 for a season pass at Colorado’s Deer Valley Resort. Sales of the Epic Pass rose 20% in fiscal 2014.

Vail continually upgrades its resorts and amenities to attract visitors and build loyalty. In the past five years, it spent $492 million on capital improvements, including a new gondola at Vail and a lift/gondola at Beaver Creek. It has also upgraded restaurants across its properties. The company plans to build lifts and other infrastructure next summer to connect Park City and Canyons, and upgrade restaurants and snow-making capabilities at both resorts.

Katz has invested in technology, as well, some of it aimed at using data collected from customers to improve their experience and get them to spend more. Recently, for example, the company inserted chips into lift tickets to track skiers’ elevation and help them broadcast their feats on Facebook. Slope photographers likewise scan lift tickets to identify skiers, and use the information to zap photos of prodigious children to their parents.

LIKE OTHER RESORT operators, Vail has benefited from growing interest in skiing among younger athletes. Golf and tennis, in contrast, have struggled to attract younger fans. Katz credits product enhancements, such as twin-tip skis that facilitate backward skiing, and parabolic skis, which make it easier to learn the sport.

Where the industry has failed, he says, is in attracting fast-growing minority populations. “Skiing is very white,” says Katz. “This is an opportunity.”

The company’s purchase in 2012 of smaller, less expensive resorts in Minnesota and Michigan was intended, in part, to target beginning skiers and a more diverse population that could, in time, graduate to Vail’s premier resorts. The company plans to market directly to people of color, among others, but Katz thinks it could take as much as a decade to better integrate the slopes.

Vail also is investing heavily to attract summer visitors to its resorts. Breckenridge, Colo., home of the Breck Summer Fun Park, with slides, a zip line, and an alpine roller coaster and track, already gets more visitors on peak summer days than at the height of the winter season. Vail Resorts has earmarked $25 million each, in the next few years, for its Vail, Breckenridge, and Heavenly resorts to add or enhance zip lines, hiking trails, and mountain coasters. Once operational, the new attractions could generate an additional $15 million in annual Ebitda at each property. “Even small growth in the industry can be profitable, since no one is building new resorts,” Katz says.

KATZ AND HIS younger brother grew up in New Rochelle, in New York’s Westchester County. His father ran his own law firm; his mother, Marylyn Dintenfass, is an acclaimed artist. Katz majored in economics at the University of Pennsylvania, getting strong grades in math and science. During his freshman year, he used several thousand dollars of his bar mitzvah money to buy an advertising-supported campus newspaper that he later sold for a small profit.

During college, the future CEO interned at the New York Stock Exchange, and learned he didn’t want to become a securities trader. Recruited by Drexel Burnham Lambert, he joined the investment bank after graduating in 1988, and became a mergers-and-acquisitions analyst. When Drexel collapsed several years later after the indictment of junk-bond king Michael Milken, Katz thought his career was over. But he soon followed members of the Drexel diaspora to Smith Barney, and then to Apollo Global Management, the private-equity firm.

“I learned it’s not just being smart,” he says. “Getting anything done involves building relationships.”

In 1991, Apollo took control of Gillett Holdings, a bankrupt company that owned what would become Vail Resorts. Eventually, it sold some of Gillett’s assets, restructured the company’s loan portfolio, and expanded its ski operations, merging Vail with Keystone and Breckenridge. Katz, who had worked on these transactions, joined the Vail board before the business came public in 1997.

DESPITE HIS success at Apollo, Katz, an avid biker and skier, and his wife, cookbook author and gluten-free advocate Elana Amsterdam, had been contemplating a lifestyle change. A year after the attacks on the World Trade Center, they left New York and relocated in Boulder, Colo., with their two young sons.

Katz consulted for Apollo and remained on Vail’s board. He also contemplated becoming a farmer.

When Vail’s then-CEO stepped down in 2006, however, the board tapped Katz as his successor. Katz immediately shook up the company, moving its headquarters from a ski resort in Avon, Colo., to a glass tower in suburban Broomfield. “On the mountain they are throwing a party,” Katz says.

He also yanked Vail’s membership from a trade group that ran ads for Colorado’s ski areas, taking with it a large share of the organization’s budget. He believed that the group was spending too much on traditional print media and the funds could be put to better use via digital outlets.

These and other sharp-elbowed moves have earned Katz his share of detractors. At a leadership summit in late summer, he proudly ticked off some of the things he has been called: Machiavellian. Jackass. Calculating frat boy. Heartless. Managers shouldn’t try to be perfect, he told the crowd. In doing so, they lose their authenticity and their messages aren’t heard. “Some people don’t own the leader they are,” he says. “Some people are challenged with that. Not me!”

It is easier to accept criticism, of course, when the results are hard to dispute, and that is how Katz wants to keep it. He plans to focus now on standardizing services across Vail’s resorts and enhancing the use of technology, instead of adding new properties.

And, when time allows, he plans to ski.