>>> Vivendi may become leading Telecom Italia shareholder under Tim Brasil/GVT m

Vivendi may become leading Telecom Italia shareholder under Tim Brasil/GVT merger plans
Vivendi, the French telecoms and media group, could become the largest shareholder in Telecom Italia, Italian-language daily Il Messaggero reported.

The unsourced item noted that Vivendi in the medium term would take the 7.6% stake in TI held by Generali, Mediobanca and Intesa Sanpaolo.

The report said that prior to Vivendi taking a stake in TI, a merger would take place between Tim Brasil, the Brazilian mobile telco owned by TI, and GVT, the Brazilian telecoms unit owned by Vivendi.

The proposal was outlined yesterday 13 March by TI's advisor on the matter, Mediobanca at a meeting between TI's CEO Marco Patuano and Vivendi chairman Vincent Bollore, the article added.

The report said that the plan would aim to use TI's international presence to develop Vivendi's media content.

TI's proposal is competing with a EUR 6.7bn offer for GVT from the Spanish telco Telefonica, presently TI's largest shareholder. The report further noted that Vivendi is likely to take its time on making a choice between the two offers and is, therefore, likely to ask Telefonica to extend its offer deadline from the present 3 September.

A report in Italian-language daily Il Sole 24 Ore cited unspecified sources who claimed that Telefonica could be willing to sell its entire 14.8% stake in TI to Vivendi. The article said that this was because its offer for GVT means that there is no longer any strategic in it holding the stake. The sale would also resolve antitrust issues in the Brazilian market, the item added.


Source Il Messaggero, Il Sole 24 Ore

>>> what to look at today - 14/08/2014

Keep an eye on :
- AGN NA : Aegon 2Q Net Beats, RoE Rises; Dividend In Line
- AR4 GY : Aurelius Raises 2014 Profit Forecast, Sees Record Breaking Year
- BALSN SW : Basilea 1H Net Loss Widens; Sees Annual Op. Loss CHF48m-CHF60m
- BOKA NA : Boskalis 1H Ebitda Rises to EU466m vs EU280m; to Start Buyback
- AFX GY : Carl Zeiss Meditec Confirms Full Year Revenue Growth Target
- CU FP : Gaillon Invest Withdraws Offer to Buy Club Med
- ILD FP : T-Mobile CFO Hints Higher Iliad Offer Okay: WSJ Link (Earlier)
- SDF GY : K+S 2Q Ebit I Ahead; Saw Further Potash Price Stabilization
- ORI SS : Oriflame 2Q Ebitda Beats Est.; Says Conditions Tough in Main Mkt
- TIT IM : Telefonica May Seek Rapid Exit From Telecom Italia: Sole

WSJ : T-Mobile CFO Calls Iliad Offer 'Inadequate', maybe open to higher bid

T-Mobile CFO Calls Iliad Offer 'Inadequate'
Financial Chief Braxton Carter Hints Company May Be Open to Higher Bid

Earlier this month, T-Mobile US Inc. received a $15 billion takeover proposal from wireless company Iliad SA. Reuters
T-Mobile US Inc. TMUS -1.59% 's chief financial officer called a $15 billion takeover proposal from French wireless company Iliad SA ILD.FR -0.58% "inadequate" on Wednesday, but hinted that his company may be open to a higher offer.

Braxton Carter, CFO of the fourth largest U.S. carrier by subscribers, said at an investor conference that Iliad's late-July offer to buy 57% of T-Mobile US was "very flattering" but "a very inadequate value proposition."

But, he added, "I think rarely people come with their best bid to start." Mr. Carter also called Iliad founder Xavier Niel a "very impressive entrepreneur."

Iliad has said it didn't see a need to boost the bid after T-Mobile's longtime suitor, Sprint Corp. S -0.68% , yielded to regulatory pressure in abandoning its pursuit.

Last week, Timotheus Höttges, chief executive of Deutsche Telekom AG DTE.XE +1.52% —which owns 67% of T-Mobile US—said he is open to selling T-Mobile at the right price, but has "no offer on the table which increases value more than what we're developing organically.

>>> Asia Update



Asian Market Update: Bank of Korea lowers rates for the first time in 15 months; Japan Machine Orders miss consensus, renew stimulus talks 

***Economic Data***
- (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) CUTS 7-DAY REPO RATE BY 25BPS TO 2.25% (AS EXPECTED); first rate cut in 15 months 
- (JP) JAPAN JUN MACHINE ORDERS M/M: 8.8% V 15.3%E; Y/Y: -3.0% V 3.0%E; Marks first quarterly decline in 5 quarters; Japan govt cuts machine order assessment
 
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 3.1%V 3.8% PRIOR (4-month low) 
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 RETAIL SALES EX-INFLATION Q/Q: 1.2% (1-yr high) V 1.0%E 
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUL BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.0 (20th consecutive expansion) V 53.4 PRIOR 
- (UK) UK JUL RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: 49% (5-month low) V 51%E 

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX +0.6%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Sept S&P500 flat at 1,944

***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies***

- Dec gold -0.1% at $1,312, Sept crude oil -0.3% at $97.32/brl; Sept Copper -0.2% $3.11/lb 
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥2.45T in 0.2% (0.1% prior) 5-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.147% v0.147% prior; Bid to cover: 4.87x v 4.14x prior 
- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY30B in 14-day repos (6th consecutive drain); Injects net CNY14B this week v drained CNY20B prior 
- (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥232.6B in foreign bonds vs bought net ¥897.4B prior week; Foreign Investors sold net ¥584.9B in Japan Stocks last week (first net sales in 4 weeks) vs bought net ¥94.9B in prior week 
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1545 v 6.1533 prior setting (2nd consecutive weaker setting) 

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes***
- Bank of Korea signalled it was adopting an easier bias last month with downgraded growth projections, and it has now followed up with its first rate cut in 15 months. In its accompanying statement, BOK said negative output gap in local economy will narrow at a moderate pace, inflation will remain subdued, and improvement in domestic demand is not sufficient. BOK Gov Lee called the easing "preemptive" and also noted that one member was opposed to today's action. KRW actually strengthened after the decision/statement, with USD/KRW falling to a 2-week low below 1,025.

- Japan shrugged the largely anticipated contraction in Q2 GDP overnight, but thereaction to a miss in June machine orders figures and govt downgrade of the sector was more pronounced. USD/JPY was up about 25pips amid analyst commentary that consistent shortfalls in leading indicators re-introduces speculation of a more proactive BOJ. Also of note in Japan, a Nikkei report noted PM Abe is planning a ¥4T fiscal stimulus focused on regional economies and tax breaks on housing-related gifts to prop up the property sector.

- In China, NDRC reported H1 energy consumption per unit of GDP fell 4.2%, the biggest decline since 2009.Lenovo and China Mobile reported mixed results - Lenovo is up over 0.5% on rising profits and new record high market shares in PCs, while CHL is down over 0.5% on 1% slide in profit and a 450bp contraction in ebitda margins. 

- Middle East situation remains precarious. In Cairo, Palestinian negotiators agreed to a 5-day truce with Israeli army but only after fresh exchange of gunfire between the two sides. In Iraq, a team of 20 US military advisers conducted a mission to assess situation of trapped Yazidis on Mt Sinjar. After the visit, Pentagon announced there were fewer Yazidis and they were in better condition than expected.

***Equities***
US markets: 
- IAG: Reports Q2 $0.02 v $0.02e, R$288.6M v $269Me, Maintains 2014 production guidance; +2.6% afterhours
- NTAP: Reports Q1 $0.60 v $0.57e, R$1.49B v $1.47Be; +1.2% afterhours
- NTES: Reports Q2 $1.48 v $1.42e, R$475.8M v $432Me; +0.1% afterhours
- CSCO: Reports Q4 $0.55 v $0.53e, R$12.4B v $12.1Be; Guides Q1 Rev flat to +1% v flat est. (implies R$12.1-12.2B v $12.0Be); to discuss a "limited restructuring" effort on today's call - conf call; -1.1% afterhours
- AMGN: Announces top-line phase 3 results from Focus trial of Kyprolis in Multiple Myeloma; did not meet its primary endpoint; -1.8% afterhours
- VIPS: Reports Q2 $0.72 v $0.60e, R$829.4M v $792Me; -4.8% afterhours
- XONE: Reports Q2 -$0.32 v -$0.15e, R$11.2M v $12.1Me; -9.6% afterhours
- TKMR: Reports Q2 -$0.28 v -$0.21 y/y, R$1.8M v $2.8M y/y; -12.3% afterhours


Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Fairfax Media FXJ.AU +7.3% (FY14 results); STW Communications Group SGN.AU -8.2% (H1 results); SAIC Motor 600104.CN +3.6% (H1 results)
- Financials: Aiful Corp 8515.JP -12.3% (Q1 results); China Overseas Land 688.HK -2.5% (July contracted sales results)
- Technology: Hon Hai Precision Industries 2317.TW +2.8% (Q2 results); Lenovo 992.HK +0.5% (Q1 results); Tencent Holdings 700.HK -1.7% (Q2 results)
- Telecom: Telstra Corp TLS.AU +2.1% (FY14 results)

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: KGJI +10.7%, HOLI +5.8%, NTAP +0.6%, NDLS -20.6%, CNAT -13.6%, XONE -9.1%, CSCO -1.3% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: KGJI +10.7%, HOLI +5.8%, AZPN +3%, IAG +2.6%, GEVO +2.1%, RMAX +1.4%, FRSH +1.2%, NTAP +0.6%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: GSL +2.3% (announced pricing of depositary shares representing $35 mln of preferred stock at $25 per share), IQNT +1.9% (increased quarterly dividend 100% to $0.15 from $0.075 per share), PRSC +1.7% (to replace UNS Energy in the S&P SmallCap 600), PCP +1.0% (Board approved a $1 bln expansion to co's existing share repurchase program), PFE +0.8% (co confirmed that the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices votes to recommend Prevnar 13 vaccine in adults aged 65 years and older), ORLY +0.1% (Board announced an additional $500 mln share repurchase authorization)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: NDLS -20.6%, CNAT -13.6%, VCYT -11.6%, TKMR -10.5%, YUME -9.1%, XONE -9.1%, VJET -7.2%, OCLR -5.8%, VIPS -4.4%, EXXI -4.2%, EMAN -4.1%, CIDM -3.9%, USU -2.2%, SLW -1.9%, INVE -1.9%, CSCO -1.3%, LPCN -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CNAT -13.6% (co said it is deferring the announcement of top-line results from the Phase 2 NAFLD/NASH clinical trial to Q1 2015; co also reported earnings), TKMR -10.5% (co remains on clinical hold as it relates to the multiple-ascending dose portion of the Phase I clinical study in healthy volunteers with TKM-Ebola, expects matter to be resolved by Q4 2014; co also reported earnings), ENPH -5.7% (announced proposed public offering of common stock by selling stockholders), FSFR -3.9% (announced public offering of 22.8 mln shares of common stock), PDII -3.5% (co's subsidiary Interpace Diagnostics entered the molecular diagnostics market with thyroid and pancreatic cancer test portfolio acquisition of miRInform for $8 mln in upfront cash, future commercial milestone-based payments, and royalties), AMGN -2.2% (announced that the Phase 3 clinical trial FOCUS evaluating Kyprolis in patients with relapsed and advanced refractory multiple myeloma did not meet its primary endpoint), TKR -1.9% (announced proposed offering of $300 mln in senior notes due 2024), AMH -1.7% (announced public offering of 13 mln shares of Class A common shares)

>>> US Close DoW+0,55% S&P+0,67% Nasdaq+1,02%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks and Bonds End Near Highs

The stock market ended the midweek session on an upbeat note with the Nasdaq Composite in the lead. The tech-heavy index advanced 1.0%, while the S&P 500 added 0.7% with all ten sectors ending in the green.

Equity indices registered roughly half of their gains at the open with heavily-weighted health care (+1.2%) and technology (+1.1%) providing support from the start. In fact, only one other sector—industrials (+0.8%)—ended ahead of the broader market.

Notably, the health care space was underpinned by biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB 257.13, +5.47) surged off its 50-day moving average for a 2.2% gain, registering its best close since late July. In addition to supporting the top-weighted countercyclical sector, biotech helped fuel the Nasdaq rally.

Top-weighted tech components like Apple (AAPL 97.24, +1.27), Facebook (FB 73.77, +0.94), and Google (GOOGL 584.56, +12.44) also provided support to the Nasdaq, while chipmakers followed closely. The PHLX Semiconductor Index added 0.9% to extend its weekly gain to 1.8%. Of the 30 index components, 26 settled higher, while Cree (CREE 44.82, -4.39) tumbled 8.9% following its one-cent beat and below-consensus guidance for the upcoming quarter.

Elsewhere, industrials drew strength from defense contractors, while transport stocks ended in line with the broader market. The PHLX Defense Index rose 1.4% with Raytheon (RTN 93.64, +2.26) leading the way. For its part, the Dow Jones Transportation Average settled higher by 0.7%.

Although every sector finished higher, there were some soft spots present in the market. Retail stocks underperformed throughout the session following a disappointing Retail Sales report for July and worse than expected earnings from Macy's (M 56.47, -3.29). The stock fell 5.5%, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 84.52, -0.54) lost 0.6%.

On the countercyclical side, consumer staples (+0.3%), utilities (+0.2%), and telecom services (+0.1%) all finished near their flat lines, while the aforementioned health care sector provided leadership.

Strikingly, the daylong strength in equities did not lure money out of the Treasury market. The 10-yr note climbed throughout the session, ending near its high. The benchmark yield slipped three basis points to 2.42%.

Participation was below average with fewer than 550 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Economic data included Retail Sales, Business Inventories, and the MBA Mortgage Index:

* Retail sales showed no growth in July following an unrevised 0.2% increase in June, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3% 

* Motor vehicle sales weighed down overall consumer demand 

* Manufacturers already reported a drop in unit sales for July (16.5 million SAAR from 16.9 million SAAR in June), which translated into a 0.2% decline in sales at motor vehicles and parts dealers. Motor vehicles and parts sales fell 0.3% in June. 

* Excluding motor vehicle sales, demand increased 0.1% in July after increasing an unrevised 0.4% in June, while the consensus expected an increase of 0.3% 

* Business Inventories increased 0.4% in June after increasing an unrevised 0.5% in May, which was in line with the consensus.  * The weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 2.7% to follow last week's 1.6% increase 

Tomorrow, weekly initial claims (consensus 305K) and export/import prices for July will be reported at 8:30 ET.

* S&P 500 +5.3% YTD  * Nasdaq Composite +6.2% YTD  * Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.5% YTD  * Russell 2000 -1.9% YTD

NY Post : Pershing Square’s Ackman touts performance ahead o

Pershing Square’s Ackman touts performance ahead of IPO

Bill Ackman is touting his 10-year track record as a corporate cage rattler while defending two of his more controversial activist plays as he gears up for an IPO later this year. Since launching Pershing Square in 2001, Ackman said his funds have an annualized rate of return to investors of 21 percent — one of the top hedge fund performances — compared with 8 percent for the benchmark S&P 500. Ackman cited his performance in his second quarter letter to investors, in which he also made reference to the upcoming IPO of one of his funds, saying it would happen "later this year." The overseas vehicle would give Ackman more capital — he wants to raise at least $4 billion — that can’t be withdrawn by investors during difficult times, as happened over the past year. Ackman also took the opportunity in the letter released Wednesday to defend his bruising battles with Herbalife and Allergan. Ackman, who has called Herbalife a pyramid scheme, said he is prepared to extend his $1 billion short bet against the nutritional products company — in the form of put options that expire next year — if necessary. The activist argued that not only is Herbalife’s business "deteriorating," but there is "much greater risk of regulatory shutdown or reform along with further stock price declines," according to the letter. Ackman also acknowledged his recent Herbalife presentation flop, saying "in light of the hype, investors and the media came to the event perhaps expecting recordings of the CEO acknowledging that he had been running a pyramid scheme." In a bid to put a positive spin on it, Ackman now claims the dense, three-hour presentation was "designed for regulators," and went on to remake his case against Herbalife’s nutrition clubs. "As a result of our investigation, we are now able to explain and document to regulators that what Herbalife management has deemed ‘daily consumption’ at nutrition clubs, is in fact a low- income, pyramid scheme concealed within the larger pyramid scheme," he wrote. The investor also circled back to his latest skirmish with Allergan. The maker of Botox sued Ackman for securities fraud after he teamed with rival drug company Valeant on a takeover bid for Allergan. "Unfortunately, in America, one can be sued by anyone for anything," Ackman wrote. "With respect to the law, you should know that we and Valeant are well-versed in the takeover and tender offer rules," he added. "We have been meticulously careful in how we have constructed and implemented this investment and transaction." Pershing Square is in the process of lining up enough shareholders to call for a special meeting to oust most of the board of directors, which Allergan has opposed. "Based on their scorched-earth attempts to stop or delay the meeting, Allergan’s management and board appear to already know that their shareholders do not support them," he wrote.

(Jefferies) Bouygues - Setbacks on Several Fronts; Lowering PT to €25

Bouygues (EN FP)
Setbacks on Several Fronts; Lowering PT to €25

Key Takeaway

We lower FY14 Telecom EBITDA from €831m (-6% y/y) to €690m (-22%). 2Q results should draw attention to heavy re-pricing (not abating), higher marketing costs and limited commercial inflection. Colas demand in France also looks to be weakening. With EFCF post-minorities likely to drop two-thirds to €150-200m, a repeat of FY13's dilutive scrip dividend seems probable. The upside case for a co-ordinated carve up bid for BYG Tel from domestic rivals
feels distant.

A bleak backdrop. BYG shares have u/p the CAC40 by 9% and SXXP by 12% in the last 2 months. This reflects receding prospects for French telecom consolidation, 5% dilution from strong take-up of a scrip option for the FY13 dividend and an Alstom deal tilted in the Government's favour.

No respite with 2Q results (28th Aug). We anticipate heavier re-pricing pressure in Telecom as strong commercial activity drives migration to cheaper mobile plans unveiled last year. We expect Telecom EBITDA to fall €86m y/y (-34%) vs. -€49m (-23%) 1Q. A €35m EBITDA gain in 2Q13 (unusually low sales tax provision) should not recur. Colas is likely to report weakening demand in France.

Eroding expectations. We expect consensus forecasts for FY14 Telecom EBITDA to drop into the €680-700m range post-results (€880m in FY13). An incremental c.€55m of spectrum fees has been anticipated, but the combined pressure of heavier re-pricing, higher marketing costs and non-recurrence of the 2Q13 sales tax gain has not, in our view. We expect further decline in FY15 (to €653m) as forced migration of subs on legacy plans that BYG Tel wishes to close down is carried out. Meanwhile our colleagues on the construction team highlight the secular risk that, as macro conditions begin to improve (outside France at least), contractors find themselves executing on work secured at low prices during the downturn. The generic risk of profit warnings is heightened in our view.

Valuation/Risks
We lower our Dec-14 PT to €25 (from €30). Telecom EV is €4.1bn (€5.0bn) reflecting lower forecasts, but still equates to 6.0x/6.3x EV/EBITDA in 2014e/15e (vs. sector 6.0x/5.8x). Construction activities all valued on 8.0x 2014 EV/EBIT (unchanged), Alstom/TF1 at market value. We apply a conglomerate discount of 10% (unchanged). Upside risk: domestic telecom rivals coordinate a carve up bid for BYG Tel. Downside: EBITDA pressure forces under-investment in Telecoms.

(BFW) Bouygues Falls; Jefferies Sees Telecom Ebitda Missing Estimates


Bouygues Falls; Jefferies Sees Telecom Ebitda Missing Estimates
2014-08-13 12:13:38.972 GMT


By Sam Chambers
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Bouygues is worst performing stock
in Cac 40 today, falling as much as 2.8% heading toward its 13th
daily decline over last 14 sessions.
* Jefferies (hold): 2Q Telecom Ebitda may fall ~34% y/y due to
ongoing negative effect of customer repricing, compounded by
higher marketing costs
* Upside case from a sale and carve up of Bouygues Telecom
now feels distant
* As economy improves, co.’s construction business may
find itself executing on work that was secured at lower
prices during downturn
* Keeps hold rating and lowers PT by 17% to EU25 (~8%
discount)
* Bouygues scheduled to report 2Q results on Aug. 28


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To contact the reporter on this story:
Sam Chambers in London at +44-20-7673-2021 or
schambers7@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net