>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: DG +10.7%, ACHN +8.0%, FDO +5.2%, JBLU +5.0%, JRJC +3.8%, JKS +3.4%, CHL +3.1%, TKMR +2.8%, GILD +2.0%, DANG +1.8%, ARMH +1.7%, GSK +1.3%, PT +1.3%, CCL +1.2%, YHOO +1.0%

Gapping down: INVN -2.8%, HMY -1.6%, DLTR -1.4%, GDX -1.0%, KING -1.0%, MNST -0.9%, AU -0.8%, ABX -0.8%

>>> Family Dollar confirms Dollar General made acquisition proposal for $78.50/s

Family Dollar confirms Dollar General made acquisition proposal for $78.50/share

Dollar General (DG) announced it has made a proposal to acquire Family Dollar Stores, Inc. for $78.50 per share in cash, in a transaction valued at $9.7 billion.
  • The proposal was conveyed this morning in a letter to Family Dollar's Board of Directors. This transaction would deliver increased consideration and immediate liquidity to Family Dollar's shareholders and represents a compelling opportunity to create value for Dollar General shareholders. The combination would solidify Dollar General's position as the largest small-box discount retailer in the U.S. with nearly 20,000 stores in 46 states and sales of over $28 billion.
  • Dollar General's all-cash proposal of $78.50 per share would provide Family Dollar shareholders with a substantially superior valuation to the $74.50 per share cash / stock offer announced by Dollar Tree, Inc. on July 28, 2014.

(BFW) Global Resorts Gets EU255m Loan to Support Club Med Bid


Global Resorts Gets EU255m Loan to Support Club Med Bid
2014-08-18 08:23:11.339 GMT


By David Cox
Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Banca IMI, UniCredit Bank providing
facility, according to a statement.
* Facility comprises:
* EU240m 7Y term loan
* EU15m 6Y revolving credit
* NOTE: Global Resorts’ share offer runs to Sept. 19


For Related News and Information:
Ardian, Fosun’s Gaillon Pull Bid for Club Med After Bonomi Offer
NSN NAA71W6S972R<GO>
Club Med Board Recommends Global Resorts Bid to Shareholders
NSN N9A80Z6KLVRP<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
David Cox in London at +44-20-3525-4607 or
dcox45@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Holloway at +1-212-617-4454 or
jholloway8@bloomberg.net
Tom Freke

>>> Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Pro-Russian separatists destroyed Ukraine militar

Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Pro-Russian separatists destroyed Ukraine military unit that was planning on derailing humanitarian aid 
- Russia troops near Ukraine because of war over border 
- Reiterates Ukraine govt claim that they destroyed APCs is disinformation 

Results of talks in Berlin: 
- Russia, France, and German Foreign Ministries plan talks on possible written agreements for aid - Govts have agreed to delivery of humanitarian aid 
- No progress on cease-fire in Ukraine

>>> Carillion issues statement


Carillion issues statement 
- Carillion refers to the following statement attributed to Philip Green in an article published by the Sunday Times on 17 August 2014: "Our synergy numbers have been audited, and at £1.5bn it is virtually the same as the current market value of either company." Carillion wishes to clarify that, while its previous statement that "as a direct result of the merger, the cost-base of the combined group could be reduced by at least £175 million per annum by the end of 2016"1 has not been "audited" in the technical sense, as set out in Carillion's announcement made on 14 August 2014, an independent accounting firm has provided public assurance, having tested the basis of preparation of the statement in line with the requirements of the Code, and has publicly reported that it has been properly compiled on the basis stated in that announcement. Also, Carillion's previous statement that the cost savings it has identified "would represent a capitalised value of over £1.5 billion before any re-rating"2 has not been audited or reported on by an independent accounting firm. Rather, that number was calculated on the basis set out in detail in Carillion's announcement of 14 August 2014. - Source TradeTheNews.com

(DB) EDF : Looming Liabilities

* Equity investors should focus on the balance sheet, not the P&L
EDF appears to bulls a story of increasing tariff visibility (a 3 month tale we
don't really quibble with). We think instead it is a story of over-discounted
nuclear liabilities. Its pension liabilities look headed for a 3.0% discount rate,
yet nuclear costs are discounted at 4.8% (the undiscounted liabilities are
E70bn, discounted are E33bn; the market cap is E46bn). When (not if in our
view) the true scale of liabilities is faced some degree of financial restructuring
and dividend cut seems likely. We resume coverage of EDF with a Sell
recommendation and €18/share price target.

* EDF’s nuclear provisions look too low in a world of low interest rates
EDF estimates that it would cost €70bn in today’s money to deal with French
nuclear liabilities, but has a provision of €33bn on a discounted basis. We
value the liability at €53bn since we find EDF’s 4.8% nominal discount rate
implausibly high as a near ‘risk-free’ rate when EDF’s own 2033 bond is
yielding 2.7%. We use a 3% nominal discount rate to value the liabilities and
assume a 10% cost overrun. This gives an €18/share valuation. Using the
undiscounted provision would cut our valuation to €12/share. Using EDF’s
book value would increase our valuation to €26/share

* Investors should not be tempted by the 30% upside to sector P/E
Decisions on the French nuclear resale price and end user tariffs in the next 3
months should give more visibility on EDF’s revenues. Consensus earnings
expectations look plausible to us and a sector average 2015 P/E would suggest
a €31 share price (30% upside). However, we believe it would be dangerous to
ignore the balance sheet risks, which could threaten the long-term dividend
profile.

* Valuation and risks
We resume coverage on EDF after recently becoming derestricted, with a Sell
recommendation and €18/share target price. We value the shares using a sumof-
the-parts methodology, using a DCF for the French nuclear fleet (3.2% pa
tariff increases to 2018 ex renewables, 5.6% post-tax WACC) and UK
generation, and a 3% discount rate for the nuclear liabilities (vs 4.8% in the
accounts). Key upside risks would include higher tariff increases, and more
confidence in long term dividend security from energy policy statements

NYT : In Silicon Valley, Mergers Must Meet the Toothbrush Test

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. — When deciding whether Google should spend millions or even billions of dollars in acquiring a new company, its chief executive, Larry Page, asks whether the acquisition passes the toothbrush test: Is it something you will use once or twice a day, and does it make your life better?

The esoteric criterion shuns traditional measures of valuing a company like earnings, discounted cash flow or even sales. Instead, Mr. Page is looking for usefulness above profitability, and long-term potential over near-term financial gain.

Google’s toothbrush test highlights the increasing autonomy of Silicon Valley’s biggest corporate acquirers — and the marginalized role that investment banks are playing in the latest boom in technology deals.

Many of the biggest technology companies are now going it alone when striking large mergers and acquisitions. Companies like Google, Facebook and Cisco Systems are leaning on their internal corporate development teams to identify targets, conduct due diligence and negotiate terms instead of relying on Wall Street bankers.

“Larry will look at potential deals at a very early stage,” said Donald Harrison, Google’s vice president of corporate development. “Bankers can be helpful, but they’re not necessarily core to the discussions.”

Deals with unadvised buyers are increasing rapidly. The acquiring company did not use an investment bank in 69 percent of American technology acquisitions worth more than $100 million this year, according to Dealogic. That number was 27 percent 10 years ago.

When Apple bought Beats Electronics for $3 billion this year, it eschewed the help of professional deal advisers. When Facebook spent $2.3 billion for the virtual reality company Oculus VR in March, it did so without the help of bankers. And when Google acquired the mapping company Waze for $1 billion last year, no bank got a cut of the fees.

In June, one of the largest-ever deals with an unadvised buyer was announced when Oracle, known for its refusal to use investment bankers, acquired Micros Systems for about $5 billion. The biggest such deal came in 2011, when Microsoft, acting alone, bought Skype from Silver Lake Partners for $8.5 billion.

The diminished reliance on investment banks comes as technology deal-making is booming. More than $100 billion in such deals have been announced in the United States this year, the most since 2000, according to Dealogic.

At the heart of the disconnect between technology companies and banks is the belief among many tech executives that some advisers simply do not know what companies like Google and Facebook are looking for.

“Bankers do two things well: financial evaluation and negotiation,” said Richard E. Climan, a partner at the law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges who often works with companies to complete deals where no banks are involved. “But there’s a feeling that investment bankers might not be so important on the evaluation of early-stage tech companies.”

Amin Zoufonoun, Facebook’s vice president for corporate development, said some bankers would come in and pitch acquisition candidates, like the user reviews site Yelp or the payment network PayPal. But instead of trying to swallow already established Internet brands, Facebook uses acquisitions to make big bets on the future and plug technical holes. And in Silicon Valley’s relatively small circle of elite entrepreneurs, executives and venture capitalists, connections are easy and ample.

Facebook’s most recent big deal, the acquisition of Oculus VR, came as a surprise to even seasoned technology watchers. But Marc Andreessen, a Facebook board member, was also on the board of Oculus VR, paving the way for the deal. The move had nothing to do with improving the social network’s main site or increasing sales. Instead, it was a bet that virtual reality would emerge as a new operating system of sorts.

While other companies focus on deals that will bolster their earnings per share, “we haven’t done a single deal like that, where we are looking at a target with that being a rationale,” Mr. Zoufonoun said.

The same dynamic was true when Google acquired Nest, the home monitoring company, for $3.2 billion this year. Nest’s current sales are a drop in Google’s ocean of profit, but the deal gave Google an entry to a potentially huge new market.

Big tech companies sometimes struggle to explain such unconventional deals to investors. When Facebook spent $19 billion to acquire WhatsApp, assisted only by the boutique bank Allen & Company, shareholders tried to square the enormous price with WhatsApp’s small team of engineers and minuscule revenue.

“It’s more art than science at times,” said Sanjay Kacholiya, head of corporate development at Eventbrite, a ticketing start-up. “That can make it difficult for an investment banker who’s familiar with earnings per share and discounted cash flow.”

Not all unadvised deals go well. Google spent $228 million on the social games company Slide without the help of a bank, then unceremoniously shut it down. Cisco didn’t work with a bank when it paid $590 million for the maker of Flip video cameras, and it wound up shuttering the unit quickly. But thanks to tech companies’ enormous war chests, such mistakes rarely have long-term consequences.

While traditional investment banks might not be comfortable suggesting that clients pay such startling prices for relative unknowns, many big tech companies have built up robust corporate development departments designed to do just that. The teams are largely staffed by former bankers who have abandoned pinstripes and wingtips for T-shirts and sneakers.

Cisco, which has acquired more than 170 companies, decided it was more efficient — and more economical — to hire its own full-time bankers rather than pay millions of dollars in fees each time it struck a deal.

“Our heritage has been embracing M.&A. as a way to enter new markets,” said Hilton Romanski, Cisco’s head of corporate development, who started his career as a JPMorgan banker. “It makes sense to build a relatively scaled effort around M.&A. with teams and talent that understand the market.”

Facebook has hired bankers away from Credit Suisse and Jefferies, among other companies, and gives them more responsibility than they would have at a bank. “They can run a deal from beginning to end,” Mr. Zoufonoun said. “As an analyst, they were doing one part of a pitch deck.”

At Google, Mr. Harrison has an employee looking after the deal needs of each of the company’s 12 product areas, like ads, YouTube and search. That person goes to all meetings held by the senior members of that group, staying attuned to possible acquisition needs.

But the hours are not necessarily any better than on Wall Street, said Mr. Zoufonoun, who stayed up several nights in a row working to close the WhatsApp deal and fell asleep at the office the day it was announced.

Once a target is identified and it is time for an approach and negotiations, corporate acquirers working on their own often diverge from the standard advice given out by bankers.

Mr. Zuckerberg developed friendships with the chief executives of Instagram and WhatsApp before Facebook went on to buy them. Only after the men knew one another well and began discussing integrating the products did discussions about actual transactions begin. Even then, much of the focus was on how autonomously the target company would operate once acquired.

“It’s very easy to treat M.&A. transactionally, to not put the target company first. Are we aligned? Do we want the same thing post-acquisition?” Mr. Zoufonoun said. “I always use the marriage example. You should spend a lot of time dating first. It takes two to dance.”

Once a deal is made, the real work of merging corporate cultures begins. “The success or failure of deals is really determined by the success or failure of the integration,” Mr. Harrison said, adding that Google closely monitored new acquisitions for two years.

The trick is to strike the right balance of blending teams while also allowing for a measure of autonomy.

“The last thing you want to do as an acquirer is go in there and start changing things around,” Mr. Zoufonoun said.

Tech companies emphasize that they maintain good relationships with many banks and use them on big deals when financing or fairness opinions — independent justifications of a deal — are needed. When Google acquired Nest, for example, Lazard provided a fairness opinion to Google’s board.

But often, when big tech companies are looking to grow through acquisitions, it is the culture and vision, not the earnings and revenue, that are of paramount importance. And for the likes of Facebook and Google — shareholder darlings that are flush with cash and run by well-connected entrepreneurs — it is easier than ever to get by without bankers.

“The most important thing is that soft stuff,” Mr. Zoufonoun said. “And that soft stuff is more challenging for a bank or an adviser to tap into.”

>>> What to look at today - 18/08/2014

Ukraine downplayed the border crossing and subsequent altercation with Russian military vehicles that sent the markets reeling on Friday. Instead, investors are more enthused by reports of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine authorities on processing humanitarian aid across the border under direct supervision of the Red Cross. Meanwhile, foreign ministers from the two countries joined their counterparts from Germany and France in Berlin on Sunday for talks to set out a roadmap toward a ceasefire. While the progress is reportedly slow, more meetings are scheduled for Monday. Markets are taking
comfort in more genuine indication of efforts to end hostilities by Moscow, sending S&P futures modestly higher. - Several notable developments in China indicate more turbulence in the property market and declining investor confidence. July home prices in all 70 cities fell for the 3rd straight month and by a larger margin of 1.2% m/m. Prices were also down in 64 out of 70 cities, a record high and up from lastmonth's 52. China's largest property developer Vanke also posted a 1% drop in H1.
Nikkei +0.05% Hang Seng -0.34% Shanghai +0.29%

Eur$ 1.3391 S&P +0.37% EurosToxx +1.49% FTSE +0.50% DAX +1.57% SMI +0.31%

Macro
- China July New Home Prices Fall M/m in 64 Cities; 55 in June {NSN NAHBJF6TTDS5 <go>}
- *ITALY MAY NEED EU20B BUDGET ADJUSTMENT IN 2015, STAMPA REPORTS
- *FRANCE'S SAPIN SAYS HE WANTS TO EXTEND TAX CUTS


Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev to Open Vietnam Brewery in 2015, Nguoi Lao Dong Says
- DAI GY : China Finds Evidence of Mercedes Price Manipulation: Xinhua
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom considers cable TV buys in Germany
- LXS GY : Lanxess CEO hopes for speedy turnaround to avoid vulnerability to takeover - FT
- NOBN SW : Nobel Biocare suitors Danaher and Straumann submit non-binding offers to gain access to books
- ROG VX : Chugai (4519 JP) +16%, was +21% on open on Rumor Roche could buy the Co. Chugai denies report of Roche bid
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Prepares GVT Offer; Fondazione MPS
- TUI1 GY : will restructure, close or sell more than 100 of the roughly 650 subsidiaries (c. 15% of sales/earnings), if the proposed merger goes through. Handelsblatt {http://bit.ly/1pE2pOJ}
- VIV FP : Vivendi may take 20% stake in Telecom Italia in exchange for GVT -
- VOLVB SS : Volvo Cars to Exceed 2014 Growth Target After China Sales Soar
- VTW GY : United Internet CEO has not decided whether to make offer for Versatel

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18/08/2014

>>> Up
*AQUARIUS PLATINUM RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*CHUNGHWA TELECOM RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN
*EVRAZ RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*FNAC RAISED TO STRONG BUY FROM OUTPERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES
*ISRAEL DISCOUNT RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT: BARCLAYS
*MMK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*NLMK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*PEGASUS AIRLINES RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT: BARCLAYS
*SCHWEITER TECHNOLOGIES RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*SHENZHEN OVERSEAS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN

>>> Down
*BANK HAPOALIM CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*DELTICOM CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*DOOSAN ENGINE CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*HOMAG CUT TO HOLD FROM BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*MIZRAHI TEFAHOT CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*RAIFFEISEN BANK CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA

>>> PT changes


>>> Initiation


>>> Call
*ARM HOLDINGS ADDED TO GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST
*ASML REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN CONVICTION BUY LIST, STAYS BUY
*IMCD GROUP ADDED TO CONVICTION BUY LIST AT GOLDMAN
*VALMET, VOSSLOH UNDER REVIEW AT BERENBERG; PREVIOUSLY RATED BUY