>>> Zodiac Aero Gains on COL/BEAV Deal; Oddo Upgrades, CS Upbeat

Zodiac Aerospace gains as much as 4.1% after Rockwell Collins agrees to buy B/E Aerospace for $6.4b.
  • Oddo upgrades to buy from neutral, raises PT to EU25.70 from EU21
    • Says the COL/BEAV deal is likely to change the mood of Zodiac controling family and make them more receptive to a sale
    • Remains more interesting for a peer to buy Zodiac now, before restructuring
    • Oddo now puts a 75% probability of a bid for Zodiac with a 30% premium
  • Credit Suisse says announcement likely to boost Zodiac’s share price in short term
    • Highlights valuation levels the stock may attract in an M&A deal
    • Applying mechanically the COL/BEAV deal multiples to Zodiac 2017/18 est. forecasts gives equity value of EU34 per Zodiac share
  • NOTE June 17: Zodiac CEO Says Co. Hasn’t Been Approached by Safran: Exane
DATA:
  • Zodiac Aerospace short interest is 5% of free float, 14 days to cover: Markit data
  • Zodiac Aerospace is trading on 21.4x next year’s earnings vs 15.9x for the Stoxx 600 Industrial Goods and Services
  • Stock has fallen -1% month-to-date vs a -0.1% fall in the Stoxx 600 Industrial Goods and Services index; is down -2.4% YTD vs a 3.2% rise in the SXNP index