>>> ZEALAND PHARMA — Diverging Analyst Views Post-LLY Amylin Data (Nov 2025)

ZEALAND PHARMA — Diverging Analyst Views Post-LLY Amylin Data (Nov 2025)
BNP Paribas Exane – Bullish (Outperform, TP DKK 905, +90%)
  • Sees Lilly’s mixed eloralintide results as positive for Zealand.
  • High fatigue/headache rates at LLY strengthen petrelintide’s differentiation on safety.
  • Upcoming catalysts: Petrelintide Ph2 (Q1 ’26), Survodutide Ph3 (mid-’26).
  • View: clear path for ZEAL to stand out; risk/reward skewed positive.
Jefferies – Cautious/Neutral
  • Says ZEAL is in a tough spot until Petrelintide data readout in H1 ’26.
  • Acknowledges LLY’s dose-escalation looks solid and portfolio power “off the charts.”
  • Zealand’s best chance: hope LLY’s Ph3 doesn’t outperform, and deliver data that look statistically stronger or cleaner (~20 % weight loss).
  • Tone: Wait-and-see; limited upside near term.
J.P. Morgan – Bearish/Defensive
  • Notes LLY’s 16–20 % weight loss and good tolerability (headache/depression ≈ placebo, vomiting lower than GLP-1s).
  • Warns no positive read-across to Petrelintide, which also targets the calcitonin receptor—tolerability could be worse.
  • LLY clearly ahead; Zealand’s data not expected until Q1 ’26.
  • View: Short-term negative; ZEAL overshadowed by LLY’s strong profile.

Consensus Snapshot:
Bank Stance Key Message
BNP Paribas Exane Bullish Lilly’s AEs create differentiation upside for Petrelintide.
Jefferies Neutral Needs strong 2026 data to re-rate; LLY dominance weighs.
J.P. Morgan Bearish LLY’s clean data limit read-across; Petrelintide may face tolerability risk.

Bottom Line:
Street sentiment is split — Exane views ZEAL as a buy on differentiation potential, while Jefferies and JPM prefer to stay cautious until Phase 2 Petrelintide data in H1 2026 clarify the competitive picture.