YouGov poll puts Remain ahead with 52%
An opinion poll carried out today has put the Remain campaign ahead in the UK’s EU membership referendum with 52 per cent. Polling stations have now closed.
But the YouGov poll – which shows Leave on 48 per cent – comes with a significant warning sign attached: although it was carried out today it is not an exit poll, as traditionally seen after the end of voting in general elections. As Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, highlighted in a note published earlier:
An on-the-day opinion poll, released at 10pm BST, is not an exit poll and should be treated cautiously.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage has told Sky News:
It’s been an extraordinary referendum campaign, turnout looks to be exceptionally high and looks like Remain will edge it.
Earlier on Thursday, sterling hit $1.4947, its highest level so far in 2016, but pared back some of its gains later in the day.
The FTSE 100 index closed up 1.23 per cent today at 6,338.10 – a two month high – having hit 6,380.58 earlier in the day. The FTSE 250 index, whose constituents earn half of their revenue in the UK according to Credit Suisse, closed at its highest level so far this year.
For more updates follow the FT’s live referendum blog here.
The FT’s Kiran Stacey has explained the difference between tonight’s poll from YouGov and an exit poll:
At 10pm, YouGov will put out the final poll of the campaign.
This is not an exit poll, which contacts a huge number of people as they leave the ballot box, and has in general elections usually proved more accurate than any other kind of survey.
Instead, YouGov has re-contacted around 4,000 people to whom it previously spoke for a Sunday Times poll.
In 2014 at the Scottish referendum, YouGov’s on-the-day poll proved very successful, getting within one percentage poll of the final result.
But at last year’s general election, the company’s on-the-day poll predicted a hung parliament, with the parties tied at 34 per cent each – very different from the Conservative majority we ended up seeing.
For what to expect during the rest of this evening/early tomorrow morning, click here for Jim Pickard’s guide to referendum night.