>>> What to look at today - 4th of July 2025

Stocks fell along with equity-index futures as President Donald Trump ratcheted up trade tensions again ahead of next week’s deadline for higher tariffs. A gauge of Asian equities retreated 0.3%, with South Korean shares leading with a 1.3% drop. Trump said his administration may begin sending out letters to trading partners as soon as Friday, setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of the July 9 deadline for negotiations. Equity-index futures for the US and Europe both declined by 0.3%. Gold rose 0.4% while the dollar dipped. There’s no cash trading in Treasuries due to a holiday in the US Friday. Investors are staying on the sidelines awaiting outcomes from various trade negotiations amid the current pause on Trump’s April tariffs, which he put on hold for 90 days to allow time for talks. Stocks have rallied to record highs as initial concerns that the levies will push the US into a recession have eased. On Thursday, the US jobs growth exceeded expectations and all but erased bets for a July rate cut. Trump has long threatened that if countries fail to reach deals with the US before next week’s deadline, he would simply impose rates on them, raising the stakes for trading partners who have rushed to secure agreements with his administration. Investors such as Jung In Yun, chief executive officer at Fibonacci Asset Management Global Pte. in Singapore, are holding more cash and waiting for Monday to see how the market reacts. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pushed back against the idea there has been little progress in negotiations with the US on a trade deal as a deadline looms for a 24% across-the-board tariff to take force. Investors are cautious about the US sending out letters to trading partners, said Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities. Treasuries fell and the dollar rose Thursday in a sign traders see less pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates after US jobs in June. Swap traders saw almost no chance of a July Fed cut, compared with a roughly 25% probability seen before the data. The chance of a move in September ebbed to about 70%. Meanwhile, Trump secured a sweeping shift in US domestic policy as the House passed a $3.4 trillion fiscal package that cuts taxes, curtails spending on safety-net programs. A $5 trillion increase in the US debt limit in the package eliminates the risk of a market-rattling payment default the Treasury had forecast could come as soon as mid-August without congressional action. The president said he plans to sign the bill on Friday at a 4 p.m. ceremony at the White House. Back in Asia, Hong Kong authorities intervened for the third time in a week to support the currency, which dropped toward the weak end of its official trading band as the city’s interest rates touched a three-year low. In commodities, oil steadied before an OPEC+ meeting that’s set to deliver another oversized production hike, threatening to swell a glut forecast for later this year.

Nikkei -0.02% Hang Seng -0.62% CSI +0.41% Shanghai +0.41% Shenzen -0.07%

Eur$ 1.1782 CNH 7.1622 CNY 7.1645 JPY 144.36 GBP 1.3679 CHF 0.7929 RUB 79.3000 TRY 39.8472 WTI$ 66.92 -0.12% Gold 3,341 +0.45% BTC 109,168 -0.74% ETH 2,578 -0.85%

S&P -0.25% Nasdaq -0.23% EuroStoxx -0.43% FTSE -0.18% Dax -0.31% SMI

Macro :
- Quant Hedge Funds Ride Whiplash Markets to First-Half Riches
- Japan Says Policy For Sincere Tariff Talks With US Is Unchanged
- Jane Street Curbed in India After $4.3 Billion in Trading Gains

Keep an eye on :
- ABBV US : AbbVie Sees 2Q IPR&D and Milestones Expense of $823 Million
- AF FP : Air France-KLM to Boost Stake in SAS to 60.5% From 19.9%
- 9926 HK : Akeso : soar as much as 9.1% in Hong Kong to hit a record high, following a Bloomberg report that its US partner Summit Therapeutics is in license talks with AstraZeneca over a cancer drug in their partnership
- AKRBP NO : Aker BP 2Q Avg Production Meets Estimates
- AKZA NA : JSW Group Secures Financing for Akzo Nobel Acquisition: ET
- ALO FP : Train Maker Alstom Wins $2.4 Billion Order From New York’s MTA
- Ambiq Micro IPO : Energy-Efficient Chipmaker Ambiq Micro Files for US IPO
- ATRLJB SS : Atrium Ljungberg 2Q Rental Income Meets Estimates
- AUTO NO : AutoStore Rises as BofA Lifts Price Target on FX, Volumes
- BPE IM : BPER Raises Offer for Sondrio With €452 Million Cash Addition
- BVB GY : Borussia Sees Positive Ebitda Impact on Gittens Move to Chelsea
- BA US : Boeing’s New CFO Barred From Defense, Lockheed Matters for Now
- BA US : Boeing Wins $2.84 Billion U.S. Air Force Contract
- 2172 HK : tech-related stocks jump, as the government plans support policies for medical equipment based on brain-computer interface technology.
- CR Group IPO : Cybersecurity Firm CR Group Said to Pick Banks for Stockholm IPO
- DTE GY : Hellenic Telecom Issues Bond, Deutsche Telekom Fully Subscribes
- ESP LN : Unite Group Deadline for Empiric Student Firm Offer Now July 31
- ETL FP : Bpifrance Cedes Its Eutelsat Stake to French State Agency APE
- XOM US : Exxon, Hess Reach Decision in Chevron Dispute: Reuters
- FER SM : Ferrovial to Book EU31m Profit on Close of Heathrow Stake Sale
- GE US : US Lifts GE Aerospace License Suspension for China Sales: Rtrs
- IARB SS : Qt Group Makes Recommended Cash Offer for IAR at SEK180/Share
- LSG NO : Leroy Prelim 2Q Harvest Beats Estimates
- META US : Meta Offers to Buy Stake in Venture Funds Started by AI Hires Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross -- WSJ
- MB IM : Monte Paschi CEO to Sole: Offer Price for Mediobanca Is ‘Fair’
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Says Can Complete Mediobanca Bid With 35% of Shares
- NG/ LN : Omers-Igneo Group, Hong Kong’s CKI Vie for UK Grain LNG Terminal
- QTCOM FH : Qt Group Makes Recommended Cash Offer for IAR at SEK180/Share
- REIN LX : Reinet Says Athora Offers About GBP5.7b for All of PIC
- SAS SS : Air France-KLM to Boost Stake in SAS to 60.5% From 19.9%
- 981 HK : SMIC : falls as much as 4.2% in Hong Kong trading after a filing showed that the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund sold 3 million H shares on July 2.
- STM GY : Stabilus Names Andreas Jaeger as CFO as of November 1