The dollar extended its losing streak and Treasuries steadied after a rally on further bets the Federal Reserve is almost done with its rate-hiking cycle. The greenback fell for a fourth day and is headed for its worst month since last November as traders turned more optimistic about the likelihood of Fed rate cuts. The South Korean won and Thai baht led the gains in Asia, with the won jumping the most in nearly two weeks. Treasuries were little changed after a rally in the previous session, when the yield on the two-year note, which is sensitive to the Fed’s rate path, fell to the lowest in a week. Benchmark 10-year yields had also dropped eight basis points to around 4.4% Monday. Wall Street forecasters have turned more upbeat about the outlook for next year as investor sentiment improves and expectations of a recession are dialed back. Bets that US policymakers are done with rate hikes have also fueled a rally in the S&P 500 this month, sinking short-term volatility expectations. The July rate hike was probably the Fed’s last, according to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. The Bloomberg US Treasury Index recently shifted to a positive return for the year as signs of slowing inflation and measured jobs growth unleashed a rally that sent yields tumbling from their highest in more than a decade. Swaps data shows investors are pricing in around 95 basis points of Fed rate cuts from the January meeting into the end of next year. Stocks in Asia rose, with benchmarks in Korea, Taiwan and Australia gaining. Japanese equities declined as the yen extended its advance following Treasuries rally, while Hong Kong shares also fell. Contracts for European and US equities were little changed. Australia and New Zealand bonds tracked Monday’s rally in Treasuries. Elsewhere, Japan’s auction of 40-year government bonds saw the bid-to-cover ratio drop to a 20-month low, suggesting weak demand. More than 60% of respondents in the latest MLIV Pulse survey expect stocks to provide better returns than bonds over the next month. That’s the highest level of excitement about equities that the survey registered since the question about the two assets was first asked in August 2022. Traders will be closely watching another batch of economic data this week, including the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation. US sales of new houses fell in October after a downward revision to the prior month as decades-high mortgage rates weighed on demand. The Fed Bank of Dallas manufacturing index for November came in softer than expected. Investors may continue to see “fairly favorable” data from the US inflation numbers, according to Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP. In earnings, Crowdstrike Holdings Inc. will underscore how businesses are prioritizing cybersecurity after recent high-profile corporate hacks, while Salesforce Inc. and Dell Technologies Inc. are expected to post slower sales growth when they report this week, as overall corporate expenditure tightens. Government debt sales in the US on Monday were met with mixed reactions, with a $55 billion auction of five-year bonds seeing strong demand while a $54 billion sale of two-year notes was soft. Elsewhere, gold was little changed, hovering near the highest level since May, supported by a slump in Treasury yields and bets that the Fed will start cutting interest rates. Oil extended its decline after a string of losses as the market weighed the possibility of deeper output cuts from OPEC+ against signs supply is running ahead of demand. US After Hours CG +6.2%, WPC +3.7%, ICUI +2.7%, CWEN +2.7%, WOR +0.5% all up on index change news; ZS -6.9% slipping following OctQ results
Nikkei -0.12% Hang Seng -0.79% CSI +0.17% Shanghai +0.25% Shenzen +0.59%
Eur$ 1.0947 CNH 7.1584 CNY 7.1528 JPY 148.38 GBP 1.2624 CHF 0.8804 RUB 88.7826 TRY 28.9317 WTI$ 75.04 +0.24% Gold 2,016 BTC 37,070 +0.10% ETH 2,010 -0.27%
S&P +0.03% Nasdaq +0.05% EuroStoxx -0.21% FTSE -0.09% Dax -0.26% SMI -0.17%
Macro :
- Italy Approves €27.4 Billion Investment in Green Energy Shift
- Saudis Seek OPEC+ Quota Cuts While Some Members Resist
- Saudis Seek OPEC+ Quota Cuts While Some Members Resist
- Blackstone’s Schwarzman Eyeing Real Estate Deals in Europe
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- ADJ GY : Adler Group Maintains FY Net Rental Income Forecast
- AIR FP : Airbus Seeks More Vietnam Suppliers: Nguoi Lao Dong
- ARGX BB : Argenx ADVANCE-SC Study Didn’t Meet Primary Endpoint
- BARC LN : Barclays Mulls Dropping Over 2,500 Investment Bank Clients: FT
- BP/ LN : Mauritania Oil Ministry Gives BP Deadline Over Gas Development
- BRNL NA : Brunel to Give Update on ‘24-’27 Targets at Capital Markets Day
- ACA FP : Banks' €1.6 Trillion 'Doom Loop' Takes a Break, But Is a Worry
- ESLT IT : Elbit Wins $500m US Navy Contract for Night Vision Systems
- ERA FP : France Eyes Deal to Save Struggling New Caledonia Nickel Plants
- INPST NA : InPost’s Founder and CEO Acquires 187.2k Shares in Company
- IPN FP : Ipsen's MSCI ESG Rating Raised to A from BBB
- Linxens : Funds Circling French Unit of China Chip Giant Unigroup: Echos
- META US : Judge Denies Meta Bid to Force FTC Into Court Over Privacy Deal
- NOVN SW : Novartis Upgrades Mid-Term Sales Guidance to 5% CAGR
- SCYR SM : Sacyr's MSCI ESG Rating Raised to A from BBB
- SRS IM : Saras's MSCI ESG Rating Raised to A from BBB
- SDRL NO : Seadrill Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- SPIE FP : SPIE to Buy Germany’s ROBUR Industry Service Group
- TEF SM : Telefonica Working on Large Job Cuts Plan, Unions Says
- UBI FP : Ubisoft Launches Offer on ~€500M of Convertible Bonds
- VOD LN : Vodafone April $10 Calls Snapped Up in Possible Start of Roll