Global stocks climbed to near a record high while crude oil fell after officials signaled the US was near a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows. The dollar weakened. The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest measure of global equities, rose 0.3% to approach an all-time high reached earlier this month. A gauge of Asian shares gained 1.2%. Japan’s Nikkei index jumped over 3% to a record, with tech stocks rallying. The moves came as Brent dropped over 4% to about $99.25 a barrel, the lowest level in more than two weeks, amid optimism a deal will help resume the flow of energy through the vital Middle East artery. Cheaper oil prices and lower inflation expectations helped lift Treasury futures, with cash trading closed Monday due to a US holiday. Markets in Hong Kong and London are also shut for public holidays. Government bond yields in Japan, Australia and New Zealand also declined. Futures contracts for the S&P 500 rose 0.9% to a record, after the underlying gauge climbed for eight straight weeks in the longest winning run since 2023. The dollar weakened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and silver climbed as lower inflation lifts chances for interest-rate cuts. Senior US officials said Sunday that the US and Iran were nearing a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though negotiations over key language were continuing and final approval from both sides could still take several days. However, Iran’s Tasnim news agency cautioned that the draft agreement could yet collapse because the US is obstructing some key clauses, including Tehran’s demand that its assets be unfrozen. The improvement in risk sentiment follows weeks of stalemate between the US and Iran after several previous efforts to strike a deal. Global equities have since surged to record highs on optimism that Middle East tensions may ease and on renewed enthusiasm for the AI trade, while elevated oil prices and higher inflation pushed bond yields to multi-year highs. While the US and Iran closed in on a deal, President Donald Trump said he won’t “rush” into an agreement. The US and Iran have developed a memorandum of understanding framework that extends the ceasefire 60 days as the two sides reach a final deal to permanently end the war, the Washington Post reported. In the mean time, the Strait of Hormuz will be demined and reopened, the report said. Traders remain focused on inflation. They have fully priced in a Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end, underscoring expectations that the US central bank chair Kevin Warsh will need to act swiftly. Later this week, US Personal Consumption Expenditures data and inflation readings across Europe will offer clues on price pressures and the direction of interest rates. Warsh, who has promised the biggest shakeup in decades at the US central bank, was sworn into office Friday. Trump stressed that he wants Warsh to independently lead the Fed, as he looked to downplay investor concern that he would pressure the new central bank chief on policy decisions. Strategists expect global bond yields to remain elevated even if a US-Iran deal eases oil-driven inflation pressures. Investors are also grappling with concerns that already large public debt burdens will continue to grow, while the capital demands of the AI investment boom are adding further strain to global markets. Elsewhere, China launched an unprecedented campaign against illegal cross-border trading to stem capital outflows, threatening severe penalties against popular brokers and ordering non-compliant accounts to be liquidated within two years. The pushback came in a quick burst after the onshore markets closed Friday when eight regulators issued a joint statement vowing a campaign against these trades, sending US-listed Chinese stocks tumbling. Meanwhile, Monday’s drop in oil came as signs emerged that ships are beginning to transit the Strait. Thirty-three vessels, including oil tankers, container ships and other commercial craft, the Strait of Hormuz over 24 hours after obtaining authorization from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy
Nikkei +2.85% Hang Seng Close CSI +1.02% Shanghai +0.69% Shenzen +0.48%
Eur$ 1.1637 CNH 6.7817 CNY 6.7820 JPY 158.87 GBP 1.3477 CHF 0.7822 RUB 71.3797 TRY 45.7347 WTI$ 91.43 -5.48% Gold 4,562 +1.15% BTC 77,014 +0.58% ETH 2,093 +0.13%
S&P +0.87% Nasdaq +1.37% EuroStoxx +0.96% FTSE Close Dax +0.97% SMI
Macro :
- Wind-Permit Stall Is Threatening $50 Billion in US Developments
- Nasdaq Gets Approval From SEC to List Bitcoin Index Options
- Iran War Saps US Military Ahead of Any Potential China Conflict
- Warsh Takes Charge of a Fed Facing Rising Inflation Threat
- Traders Bet Fed Under Warsh Will Hike Rates by December
- Lutnick Son Given Role of Strategy Chief at Family Property Firm
- Bond Strategists Warn Yields to Stay High Even If Iran War Ends
Keep an eye on :
- ABVX FP :Abivax Presents First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Reports Three-Year Interim Data from Study 108, a Phase 2a/2b Open
Keep an eye on :
- ABVX FP :Abivax Presents First Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Reports Three-Year Interim Data from Study 108, a Phase 2a/2b Open
- AIR FP : US warns Japan of severe delays in Tomahawk deliveries due to Iran war - FT --> +ve for European MBDA missile shadows (Airbus (37.5%), BAE Systems (37.5%), and Leonardo (25%))
- AIR FP : Airbus Delays First A350-1000ULR Qantas Delivery to April 2027
- Anthropic IPO : Anthropic to Close Over $30 Billion Round as Soon as Next Week
- Anthropic IPO : Anthropic Seeks to Expand Project Glasswing to Add More Partners
- AZN LN : Astra’s Datroway Approved in US to Treat Some Breast Cancers
- BAYN GY : Brazil Prosecutors Sue to Ban Top-Selling Weed Killer Glyphosate
- BAS GY : Germany’s Troubled Chemical Makers Risk Disorderly Decline
- BA US : US jury finds Boeing not guilty in 737 MAX grounding lawsuit
- BOL FP : Paris Court of Appeals to Decide July 8 in Bollore-CIAM case
- Chanel IPO : Chanel’s Mega Dividend Brings Owners’ Windfall to $21 Billion
- CNH US : Permian’s Scott Hendrickson Bets on a 2x-4x Play on Management Change and the Ag Cycle - Sohn HK 2026
- CBK GY : Commerzbank rallies shareholders in fight for independence from UniCredit - FT
- 1 HK : CK Hutchison-owned chain store AS Watson's sill planning $30B dual IPO in Hong Kong and London - UK press - Watson is one of world's biggest health & beauty retailers by store size
- DHER GY : Delivery Hero Says Received €33/Share Approach From Uber, Uber weighs higher bid for Delivery Hero after €11.5bn offer rebuffed - FT
- DIS US : Latest ‘Star Wars’ Film ‘Mandalorian’ Debuts at $102 Million
- GILD US : Gilead Sciences Gets FDA Approval for 1st Hepatitis Delta Drug
- GOOGL US : Waymo Halts Robotaxi Service in Sixth City Due to Flooding Risks
- GOOGL US :Xreal, Google’s smartglasses partner, thinks it has finally mastered this notoriously tricky industry - TechCrunch
- JAR LN : Jardine Matheson Agrees to Buy I-MED for A$3.4b Enterprise Value
- JD US : JD.com Studies Potential Bid for The Very Group: Sky News
- LAMDA GA : Lamda Plans to Repay €320m Bond Subject to New Bond Issuance
- MEKO SS : Meko Says Andrew Long to Continue as Acting MD of Danish Unit
- META US : Norway’s $2.3 Trillion Fund Objects to Elkann’s Meta Board Seat
- MRO LN : GKN LN : Potential Tank Crack May Prevent California Chemical Explosion
- ORSTED DC : Wind-Permit Stall Is Threatening $50 Billion in US Developments
- ORSTED DC : Orsted Said to Mull Over $1 Billion Sale of US Renewable Assets
- PHARM NA : Pharming: EC Grants Marketing Authorization to Joenja
- SCT LN : UK’s Softcat Recasts Itself as AI Winner With Guidance Upgrade
- SPCX US : SpaceX Starship Deploys Mock Satellites in Successful Test
- SPCX US : SpaceX’s Money-Losing Rockets Are Biggest Asset in AI Dream
- STLA US : Stellantis Will Add Alfa Romeo Compact SUV to Expand Lineup
- UBER US : Uber Proposes Delivery Hero Takeover at €10 Billion Valuation
- UBI FP : Guillemot, Bank Extend Ubisoft Share Agreement Until April 2027
- UNA NA : Inside Unilever’s Plan to Go All-in on Beauty and Health - WWD
- VWS DC : Wind-Permit Stall Is Threatening $50 Billion in US Developments
- VIV FP : Paris Court of Appeals to Decide July 8 in Bollore-CIAM case