Oil fell and equities rallied as US diplomatic efforts fueled cautious optimism that the Middle East conflict, now approaching a month, may begin to ease, tempering concerns over prolonged disruption. Brent crude slid 4.7% to $99.55 a barrel, underpinning a 1.9% advance in Asian equities and gains in sovereign bonds, as the prospect of easing tensions in Iran tempered inflation risks and damped expectations for policy tightening. Stock futures for the US and Europe pointed to gains extending beyond the region. The dollar edged lower. Fueling the optimism was a 15-point US plan intended to help bring the war with Iran to a close. Earlier, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington was seeking a one-month ceasefire. Even so, attention stayed fixed on the Strait of Hormuz — a vital artery for Middle East oil flows — that remains effectively closed for ships. Financial markets have whipsawed since the conflict erupted in late February, with headline-driven swings leaving traders “stopped out” of positions. Rising volatility in crude is clouding risk assessment, as surging commodities heighten inflation concerns and raise the prospect that policymakers may keep borrowing costs elevated or even tighten further. The US plans highlight the intensifying urgency within the Trump administration to resolve the conflict as the economic toll mounts. President Donald Trump has been pushing talks with Iran in a bid to halt the fighting, yet those efforts have been clouded by uncertainty over the structure of negotiations, the Iranian participants and how any deal would be structured. The details of the 15-point proposal remain unclear, though Trump has publicly mused that any agreement would have to include a prohibition on Iran ever obtaining a nuclear weapon or enriching radioactive material for civilian purposes. Investors such as Qian Su, head of investment management for Asia at Indosuez Wealth Management, said it’s hard to take Trump at his word. “We’re defensive, we’re not chasing headlines, we’re waiting for more prominent signs of real resolution on the ground before buying in at a better timing,” she said. In other corners of the market, gold rose for a second day to trade around $4,575 an ounce, and Bitcoin advanced to just under $71,000.
Attention was also on the bond markets with Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr and Austan Goolsbee signaling that inflation continues to be a key concern for policymakers. The drop in crude oil, however, eased concern about prices and damped the case for the Fed to pivot to a rate hike. Yields on policy-sensitive two-year Treasuries fell three basis points to 3.86%. Even as reports suggested a possible de-escalation, the conflict continued to rage. Kuwaiti authorities said on Wednesday they were dealing with a fire after drones targeted a fuel tank at the airport, according to the country’s aviation regulator. Israel said it carried out a wave of strikes at targets across Tehran.
Also, the Trump administration ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy about 2,000 soldiers to the region, according to a person familiar with the matter, as the White House weighed options to ease Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran started charging transit fees on some commercial vessels passing through the waterway, people familiar with the matter said. Yet Tehran said non-hostile foreign ships are allowed to cross the waterway on its terms. US After Hours Oil lower, gold & silver higher on NYT report about US presenting Iran with proposal to bring war to an end; KBH -4.8%, WOR -2.6% lower on earnings; ARM +6.5% as it sees CPU business reaching $15 bln in revs in FY31.
Nikkei +2.95% Hang Seng +0.25% CSI +1.35% Shanghai +1.20% Shenzen +2.03%
Eur$ 1.1596 CNH 6.8968 CNY 6.8930 JPY 158.95 GBP 1.3385 CHF 0.7897 RUB 80.7377 TRY 44.3466 WTI$ 88.93 -3.71% Gold 4,567 +3.99% BTC 71,198 +1.57% ETH 2,172 +1.12%
S&P +0.65% Nasdaq +0.68% EuroStoxx +0.96% FTSE +0.73% Dax +0.95% SMI +0.79%
Macro :
- US Forms 15-Point Plan to End Iran War as Trump Pushes Talks
- Barclays Strategists Raise S&P 500 Target Despite Macro Risks
- Barclays Strategists Raise S&P 500 Target Despite Macro Risks
- Brevan Erases 2026 Gains, Taula Drops 7.5% in Three Weeks of War
- Ares, Apollo Cap Credit Fund Withdrawals
- Tether’s Landmark Fundraise on Hold as Crypto Giant Seeks Audit
- Europe’s Tech Exodus Drained $1.4 Trillion in Value, Study Shows
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