Oil jumped and US equity-index futures retreated as traders turned cautious following a weekend flare-up in US-Iran tensions, curbing optimism that strains in the Middle East were easing. Brent rose 5.4% to $95.25 per barrel after the US Navy seized an Iranian ship during a chaotic weekend that saw Tehran firing at vessels and reimposing controls in the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% after the underlying index closed at a record high Friday following Iran’s earlier declaration that the vital waterway was “completely open.” Treasuries dropped across the curve on concern higher oil prices will stoke inflation. The dollar — the haven of choice during the conflict — edged up after falling over the past three weeks on hopes for an end to the war. Even so, most of Monday’s relatively modest moves returned markets to last week’s levels, when expectations of a diplomatic resolution had lifted sentiment. MSCI’s Asian share benchmark rose 0.6% with chipmakers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and SK Hynix Inc. contributing most to gains. A gauge of emerging market equities also fully recovered its war-related losses. Renewed strains and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to reintroduce volatility into markets after a broad unwinding of war-driven risk premiums in recent weeks. With the two-week ceasefire set to expire Tuesday, the focus is shifting to whether the US and Iran can resume negotiations to ease tensions and reopen the key waterway after initial talks in Islamabad failed. President Donald Trump and Iranian officials offered disparate views on the next stage of the war, casting uncertainty over whether the two sides would meet for peace talks with the ceasefire set to expire in the coming days. Iran signaled it may not join a second round of talks this week while the US maintains a naval blockade, hardening a standoff that had appeared to thaw on Friday and sparked a broad rally in stocks. Trump, who on Friday said a deal with Iran was all but agreed, threatened by Sunday morning to destroy every power plant and bridge in Iran if negotiations fail. The whiplash underscores how much of last week’s rally was built on hope rather than resolution. In other corners of the market, gold fell 0.8% to $4,790 an ounce and silver declined 1%. Bitcoin was a touch weaker at around $74,500. The Treasury 10-year yield rose two basis points to 4.27%. European bond futures edged lower. European natural gas futures surged as much as 11% on Monday as Tehran on Saturday again closed the chokepoint, after it said a US blockade of Iran-linked ships violated the ceasefire agreement. Earlier on Friday, the S&P 500 capped a third straight week of gains of more than 3% and is set for its biggest monthly advance since 2020. Gauges in Taiwan, Singapore and China’s CSI 300 Index had all reversed losses that came after the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. South Korea’s equity benchmark Kospi advanced as much as 1.4% on Monday, wiping out the losses incurred since the start of the war.
Nikkei +1.04% Hang Seng +0.82% CSI +0.54% Shanghai +0.67% Shenzen +0.63%
Eur$ 1.1753 CNH 6.8188 CNY 6.8194 JPY 158.89 GBP 1.3505 CHF 0.7822 RUB 75.9161 TRY 44.8705 WTI$ 88.95 +6.08% Gold 4,794 -0.75% BTC 74,300 -0.19% ETH 2,270 +0-0.46
S&P -0.71% Nasdaq -0.74% EuroStoxx -1.33% FTSE -0.47% Dax -1.36% SMI -0.69%
Macro :
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- Germany’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Is Dropping Weapons Exclusions
- US Seizes Iranian Ship in Blockade, Casting Doubt on Peace Talks
- Asia Hedge Funds Log Losses From Iran War Before Ceasefire
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- Australian Pension Chiefs Target Private Assets in European Trip
- Goldman Calms Private Credit, Blue Owl Less So: Paul J. Davies
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
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