US equity-index futures fell and Treasuries edged higher, underscoring a cautious mood heading into the market’s reopening after a holiday. Contracts for the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% and those for the Nasdaq 100 Index slipped 0.7% in a sign of risk aversion before the US returned Tuesday after observing the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday. Asian stocks fell 0.1% in thin trading, with China, Hong Kong and several regional markets shut for the Lunar New Year. European shares were also set for a weaker open. Treasury 10-year yields fell two basis points to 4.03%. Precious metals slid. Japan’s bonds rallied across the curve after demand at a bond auction showed signs of stabilization. Oil held its gains, with traders pricing in higher geopolitical risk after Iran held naval exercises near a critical shipping corridor before talks with the US. Developments in the Middle East have thrust geopolitical risk back into focus, as traders also weigh the outlook for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts following Friday’s inflation data. Shifting sentiment around artificial intelligence is adding to the unease, rippling beyond the tech sector amid the emergence of the so-called AI scare trade. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks with the head of the UN’s atomic watchdog in Geneva on Monday, ahead of a second round of nuclear negotiations with the US. Trump has threatened to strike the Islamic Republic unless it agrees to a deal curbing Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. He’s mobilized warships and fighter jets near Iran in response to a recent deadly crackdown by the regime there following mass protests. Investors seeking clues on the Fed’s rate path will get a chance Tuesday, when Governor Michael Barr speaks on the labor market and AI, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly discusses AI and the economy. Traders will also be watching for ADP private payrolls numbers on Tuesday and the minutes from the Fed’s January meeting on Wednesday for a fresh read on the economy. In Japan, demand at a five-year government bond auction increased for the first time since September amid receding expectations for an early rate hike by the country’s central bank. This was the first auction of conventional Japanese government bonds after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election victory earlier this month. Meanwhile, the impact of AI, which has driven selling pressure across multiple stock-market sectors in recent weeks, continued to draw attention. The S&P 500 has declined for two straight weeks and is down 0.1% this year. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has fallen for three consecutive weeks, leaving it about 2% lower year-to-date. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. team led by Mislav Matejka urged caution on stocks at risk of AI-driven “cannibalization” including software, business services and media companies. Firms are developing tools to capitalize on the divergence. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. launched a new basket of software stocks that goes long firms that will benefit from AI adoption, while shorting the companies whose workflows could be replaced. With AI disruption rippling through markets, a lot will come down to earnings resilience, particularly in the US.
Nikkei -0.83% Hang Seng closed CSI closed Shanghai closed Shenzen closed
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S&P -0.39% Nasdaq -0.72% EuroStoxx -0.35% FTSE -0.18% Dax -0.41% SMI +0.03%
Macro :
- Hedge Funds Buy Most Asian Stocks in a Decade, Goldman Says
- Italian Power Drops as Market Weighs Gas, Carbon Policy Shifts
- EVs must be 70% made in the EU to qualify for state support, Brussels says - FT
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
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- TRUEB SS : Truecaller 4Q Revenue Beats Estimates
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