TheChek News Flow

The dollar weakened against most of its major peers after soft US economic data reduced bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month. Treasuries rose. A Bloomberg gauge of the currency slipped 0.1%, hovering around levels last seen in May. Pressure on the dollar increased after US government data on Friday showed retail sales fell in July by the most in more than a year as consumers pulled back on purchases.  Swaps traders see around a one-in-four chance the Fed will raise rates next month. That’s down from about 50% odds only a week ago. Treasuries rose across the curve. The yield on the rate-sensitive two-year note fell two basis points to 4.15%, while that on the benchmark 10-year eased one basis point to 4.68%. Elsewhere, oil swung between gains and losses as traders looked for the next catalyst to set direction, with renewed Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the prospect of fresh US sanctions on Iran adding to geopolitical uncertainty. Brent traded at $88.40 a barrel, having climbed to almost $89. A gauge of Asia Pacific stocks rose 0.1% with South Korean financial markets shut for a holiday. Successive soft US inflation prints and the weak retail sales report have prompted traders to pare back expectations the US central bank will boost borrowing costs by year-end — a narrative that had been buying buoying the dollar. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting will offer a closer look at the debate that produced three dissents in favor of a quarter-point rate increase, an unusually visible split as policymakers contend with elevated inflation and mixed economic data. President Donald Trump’s regular conversations with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and renewed attempts to fire Governor Lisa Cook are also factors that weigh on the greenback, according to Richard Franulovich, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. The US Treasury will sell 20-year bonds this week in a test of investor appetite for long-term debt following a few record-breaking auctions.  Last week, the US government sold 30-year bonds at the highest interest rate in a quarter century, a testament to investors’ demand for greater compensation to finance the nation’s growing deficit. Monday’s cautious trading came as investors watched for efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which may weigh on oil after the commodity jumped almost 6% last week. With stocks near record highs due to a revival in the artificial intelligence trade, attention remained on the Middle East for the next market catalyst. In other corners of the market, futures contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Index advanced. Gold inched up 0.4% to about $4,390 an ounce. The yen edged higher against the dollar after a report showed Japan’s economic growth unexpectedly slowed in the three months through June as capital spending continued to slump. A slew of Chinese data, including retail sales and industrial production, will be in published Monday. Economists expect consumer spending to have picked up slightly in July, while factory output may have slowed, according to Bloomberg surveys.  China’s “macro momentum continues to deteriorate” as credit growth has slowed and inflation remains weak, Wee Khoon Chong, a strategist at BNY, wrote in a note to clients. “July activity data are likely to reinforce the slowdown, with retail sales and high-tech investment the key areas to watch for resilience.”

Macro :
- Dimon Warns UK’s Healey Against Raising Taxes on Banks, FT Says

- Lala Leaves One Dead in Hawaii With Heavy Rain to Come

- Belgian Firefighters Battle Record Blaze Near German Border

Keep an eye on :

- BABA US : Alibaba AI Models Hit 3 Billion Downloads, Passing Meta, Google

- Anthropic IPO : Anthropic Revenue Surges to Over $11.5 Billion in Second Quarter

- AAPL US : U.S. Urges Apple Not to Buy Chinese Memory Chips -- WSJ

- ARGX BB : Argenx's Efgartigimod Meets Phase 3 Primary Endpoint in Myositis
- AML LN : Aston Martin Unveils $2 Million Supercar to Revive Fortunes

- BALY US : Bally’s Warns of Debt Covenant Breach Risk as It Seeks New Funds

- 688825 CH : CXMT : CXMT’s Rise to China’s Most Valuable Firm Heralds New Tech Era

- DGE LN : Kenyan Regulator Demands Reserve Fund for Diageo-Asahi Deal: BD

- RACE IM : Ferrari’s Luce Sets $40 Million Record as Most Expensive New Car

- GLEN LN : Korea Eximbank to Lend $1b to Glencore to Secure Copper Supply

- GOOGL US : Waymo Says California Approves Expanding Service in SF, LA

- GOOGL US : Alphabet Mulls First Australian Dollar Bond as AI Debt Piles Up

- INTC US : Higgsfield Raises $400m From Goldman, Intel at $5.4b Value: FT

- MMK AV : Mayr-Melnhof Karton Buys RDM Arnsberg Mill in Germany

- NESN SW : Putin Asked to Put Nestle Units Under Management: Kommersant

- NVDA US : Nvidia Downsizes Plans for $250 Billion Guarantee of OpenAI Data Center -- WSJ

- PYPL US : Stripe, Advent in Talks to Buy PayPal -- WSJ

- RENE PL : Portugal Buys Stake in Grid Operator REN from Billionaire Ortega

- SDZ SW : Sandoz Collaborating With Henlius on Up to 10 Biosimilar Assets

- SIGN SW : SIG Group Appoints Ann-Kristin Erkens as New CEO

- TMUS US : T‑Mobile Expands Hawaii Network Recovery After Hurricane Lala

- UBI FP : Alibaba to Sell Videogame Business for at Least $1.5 Billion