Investors experienced a rollercoaster ride this week, with a slew of headlines that included central bank announcements, President Trump directives and key US earnings reports. But it was major a plot twist in the global AI narrative that spooked markets sending the NASDAQ careening lower on Monday and remained ever-present through the week. Over the weekend Chinese AI competitor DeepSeek rose to the top spot on US app stores, supplanting OpenAI. The NASDAQ plunged ~4% before Monday’s opening bell. Nvidia shares were routed, hemorrhaging some $500B in market cap. The entire AI stack including semiconductors, data centers, and electrical power generation experienced jarring pullbacks on worries that a significantly cheaper, efficient, open-sourced AI model could upend the boom in spending seen around US LLMs. A flight to safety was evident in stock sector flows and into US Treasury markets sending the 10-year back down to 4.5%. Some of these fears were allayed later in the week when Meta and Microsoft affirmed aggressive capex projections. Nevertheless, a potential paradigm shift had been introduced. Many argued the DeepSeek development was a good thing because it will allow for faster democratization of AI applications, while others also referred to it as a ‘Sputnik’ moment, with the emergence of a low-cost Chinese artificial intelligence model casting doubt on Western companies' dominance.
Ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, the Bank of Canada cut rates as expected with Governor Macklem acknowledging potential US tariffs weighed heavily on policy makers’ minds. The FOMC statement marginally spooked markets when the Fed removed a reference to inflation making progress towards the 2% goal. Powell once again soothed sentiment with his press conference comments, namely referring to the statement changes as nothing more than "language clean up" not meant to send any signal. He went on to say that he thought rates were still "meaningfully" above the neutral rate, suggesting there is still room to cut if he sees real progress on inflation or incremental weakening in the jobs market. On Thursday, European rates moved lower after the ECB cut and affirmed market expectations for another cut in March. US and European economic readings, including US PCE data and German CPI readings underscored the messages offered by both central banks in the aftermath of their rate announcements.
As the week drew to a close, focus shifted back to the White House. Nvidia’s CEO met with President Trump on Friday amid speculation he was considering tighter export curbs on Nvidia sales to China in the wake of the DeepSeek advancements. The Administration also denied a report that tariffs might be delayed by a month, confirming 25% tariffs on both Canada and Mexico will take effect on February 1st, as well as an additional 10% levy on China, in response to illicit fentanyl smuggling into the US. Early in Friday’s session the NASDAQ had recouped all the losses from Monday’s DeepSeek swoon but stocks sold off in the afternoon following the latest tariff developments. For the week, the S&P lost 1% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.6%, while the DJIA rose 0.3%.
Many of this week’s corporate news headlines required a thorough look under the hood to get the real story. Apple beat analyst estimates, but shares initially sank because iPhone sales underachieved. Tim Cook and his CFO turned things around during the conference call, providing solid guidance as the services segment continued to flourish. Microsoft beat analyst projections, but sandbagged guidance for next quarter during its conference call, pushing shares lower. Tesla missed its bottom line number for the quarter as the company pulled ever incentive leaver it could to get deliveries close the expected number. Investors forgave the miss, however, as Tesla touted more affordable vehicles and robotaxis ‘coming soon.’ Clouds still hung over Boeing as it reported a big earnings miss, but the silver lining was that its 737 production program is finally getting back on track and could exceed expectations as it ramps. Starbuck’s new CEO managed to beat expectations in his first quarter on the job, managing to avoid a ‘kitchen sink’ strategy, though a closer examination of the numbers showed that transactions were down significantly.
MON 01-27
(DE) GERMANY JAN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE SURVEY: 85.1 V 84.8E
(US) World Organization for Animal Health: US reported first outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N9 bird flu in poultry
(US) DEC NEW HOME SALES: 698K V 672KE
(US) TREASURY $70B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.330% V 4.478% PRIOR, BTC 2.40 V 2.40 PRIOR AND 2.36 OVER THE LAST 12
OPENAI.IPO *CEO Altman: DeepSeek R1 is an 'impressive' model; the model is impressive for what it can deliver for the price; planning some new releases; Excited to continue to execute on our research roadmap and believe more compute is more important now than ever before to succeed at our mission
NUE Reports Q4 adj EPS $1.22 v $0.64e, Rev $7.1B v $6.60Be; Market conditions are starting to improve and should gain momentum into 2025
WAL Reports Q4 $1.95 v $1.92e, Net Rev $838.4M v 817Me
ENR.DE Reports prelim Q1 Pretax €463M v €1.9B y/y, Rev €8.94B v €8.5Be
NVDA Tests 200-day moving average on new intra-day low; Falls below key tech level for first time since late 2023
DEEPSEEK.IPO Restricts registration to Chinese mobile phone numbers amid reports of service disruptions due to a sudden rush to download the chatbot – press
WMB FERC reinstates certificate for Transco’s Regional Energy Access Expansion
RYA.IE Reports Q3 Net €149M v €15M y/y, Rev €2.96B v €2.87Be; Expect last 29 of 210 Boeing 737 orders by Mar. 2026; Expect MAX-10 cert. in 2025 (15x delivs. due Spring 2027)
TUES 01-28
(IT) Italy PM Meloni under investigation for embezzlement; Investigation related to case of repatriated Libyan police officer - press
(RU) European Commission proposing tariffs on agricultural exports and fertilizers from Russia and Belarus
(US) JAN RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -4 V -10E
(US) DEC PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -2.2% V 0.6%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): 0.3% V 0.3%E
(US) HHS Sec nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Not anti-vaccine of anti-industry; Vaccines have 'critical role' in health care - Senate testimony
(US) Senator Murphy (D-CT): Connecticut Medicaid payment system turned off; Doctors and hospitals can't get paid
(US) TREASURY $44B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 4.457% V 4.532% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.76 V 2.76 PRIOR AND 2.60 OVER THE LAST 12
(US) White House Office of Management & Budget (OMB) memo: Mandatory programs like Medicaid and SNAP will be excluded from Fed funding pause
DEEPSEEK.IPO *Microsoft is probing if DeepSeek-linked group obtained data from OpenAI; Microsoft researchers observed 'data exfiltration' last fall - US financial press
AAPL Said to be working with SpaceX and T-Mobile to offer service on iPhones; new iPhone update is expected to support Starlink satellites - US financial press
OPENAI.IPO Statement: China companies are 'constantly' trying to 'distill' US AI models; It is a technique that typically leverages the outputs of larger models to enhance the performance of smaller one, allowing similar results in certain tasks at a lower cost; Engages in countermeasures' to protect its intellectual property
SBUX TTN Summary Earnings Call: Guides Q2 EPS lowest for FY25 due to seasonality, restructuring, and elevated investments; Saw a shift in sales mix toward coffee and espresso based beverages in Q1 - earnings call comments
BXP Reports FFO Q4 $1.79 v $1.79e, Rev $859M v $795Me; Guides FY25 below consensus primarily due to higher net interest expense
LOGI Reports Q3 $1.59 v $1.38e, Rev $1.34B v $1.24Be; Raises FY guidance
SBUX Reports Q1 $0.69 v $0.66e, Rev $9.40B v $9.30Be; US and China SSS beat estimates but transactions decline
QRVO Reports Q3 $1.61 v $1.20e, Rev $916.3M v $901Me; Guides Q4 EPS above and Rev below consensus;expect HPA and CSG to deliver double-digit growth in fiscal 2025 and next fiscal year
MC.FR Reports FY24 Rev €84.68B v €84.3Be
SFD IPO opens for trade at $21.05
V X CEO Yaccarino: Visa to be first partner for XMoney account, which will debut later this year - post on X
BA CEO: To deliver in upper 30s in 737 jets in January and indicators to move beyond 38/month rate looking good; Making significant progress – CNBC
CVX Engine No. 1, Chevron, and GE Vernova to Power U.S. Data Centers
COLD To Build a Cold Storage Facility in Port Saint John, Canada Leveraging Strategic Partnerships with DP World and CPKC
BA Reports* Q4 Core -$5.90 v -$2.27e, Rev $15.2B v $16.4Be (v $15.2B prelim); 737 program resumed production in the quarter and plans to gradually increase production rate
RTX Reports Q4 $1.54 v $1.37e, Rev $21.6B v $20.6Be; Guides FY25 Rev below est
KMB Guides initial FY25 Capex $1.0-1.2B v $721M y/y; As far as pacing during the year, we currently expect net sales, adjusted operating profit, and adjusted earnings per share to be balanced, roughly 50:50, between the first half of the year and the second half of the year. - prepared remarks
GM Reports Q4 $1.92 v $1.75e, Rev $47.7B v $43.8Be; Guides initial FY25 strong
PII Sees more difficult first half versus second half in 2025; Industry retail continues to be challenged; Profit sharing recovery creates headwind; Expect negative mix to continue- earnings presentation
SYF Reports Q4 $1.91 v $1.90e, NII $4.59B v $4.62Be
WCH.DE Reports prelim FY24 Net €265M v €327M y/y, Rev €5.72B v €5.8Be
WEDS 01-29
(US) DOE CRUDE: +3.5M V +2ME; GASOLINE: +3.0M V +1.5ME; DISTILLATE: -5.0M V -2ME
(CA) Bank of Canada announces end of quantitative tightening
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Jan 18th 500.2K total units, +25.9% y/y (update)
(US) FOMC LEAVES TARGET RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 4.25-4.50%; AS EXPECTED; INFLATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED (REMOVES REFERENCE TO MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD GOAL), UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS STABILIZED AT LOW LEVEL
(CA) BANK OF CANADA (BOC) CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS TO 3.00%; AS EXPECTED; global tariff war with the US could cut Canadian GDP by 2.5% in 1st year and anther 1.5% in the 2nd percentage points
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q4 GDP forecast from 3.2% to 2.3%
(US) HHS Sec nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Promised Pres Trump that, if confirmed, he'll do everything possible to put Americans' health back on track - Senate testimony
(US) Truflation proxy of US aggregated Inflation Index drops again to 2.61% v 3.10% end-Dec, essentially erasing acceleration happened since end-Nov; Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast sees Jan US CPI Y/Y (to be out next month) at 2.9% v 2.9% Dec US CPI Y/Y (prior saw Jan CPI Y/Y to decelerate to 2.8%)
(EU) EU Commission "Competitive Compass" Roadmap for Europe to reignite Europe's innovation potential and to carry out series of packages to simplify business reporting; Industry Chief Sejourne calls for EU to 'Simplify, Invest, and Accelerate' economic policy – press
(BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BCB) RAISES SELIC TARGET RATE BY 100BPS TO 13.25%; AS EXPECTED
MSFT Guides Q3 Rev $67.7-68.7B (calculated) v $69.7Be; Azure revenue growth 31-32% (cc) v 31-32% q/q; Capex growth rate to slow in 2026 - earnings call comments
MSFT TTN Summary of 17:30ET Earnings Call: Capex to remain at similar levels in Q3 and Q4 FY25; FY26 CapEx growth rate will be lower than FY25; Expects FY25 operating margins to be up slightly year over year; See Q3 FX headwind of 2ppts; Facing near-term execution challenges in non-AI Azure services, particularly in "scale motions" with customers reached through partners; adjustments being made, but impacts expected through H2 FY25.
LSTR Guides Q1 $1.05-1.25 v $1.35e, Rev $1.08-1.18B v $1.21Be - earnings slides
META Reports Q4 $8.02 v $6.68e, Rev $48.4B v $47.0Be; Guides Q1 rev short of consensus
LRCX Announces its Aether, innovative EUV dry photoresist technology, has been selected by undisclosed memory manufacturer as production tool of record for the most advanced DRAM processes
MSFT Expect capital expenditures to increase in coming years to support growth in our cloud offerings and our investments in AI infrastructure and training - 10Q
LRCX Reports Q2 $0.91 v $0.87e, Rev $4.38B v $4.31Be; Guides Q3 very strong
TSLA Reports Q4 $0.73 v $0.75e, Rev $25.7B v $27.5Be; More affordable models on track for production start in H1 2025; Cybercab scheduled volume production in 2026; Working on launching FSD supervised in China and Europe in 2025
WDC Reports Q2 $1.77 v $1.75e, Rev $4.29B v $4.25Be
CMCSA Introduces US's First Ultra-Low Lag Xfinity Internet Experience With Meta, NVIDIA, and Valve
TMUS Reports Q4 $2.57 v $2.17e, Rev $21.9B v $21.2Be
LII Reports Q4 $5.60 v $4.23e, Rev $1.35B v $1.24Be; FY25 guidance underwhelms
EAT Reports Q2 $2.80 v $1.80e, Rev $1.36B v $1.24Be; Raises outlook sharply; Notes new guests trying Chili's and return guests coming more frequently despite a more competitive promotional environment
AIT Reports Q2 $2.24 v $2.32 y/y, Rev $1.07B v $1.08B y/y; Raises Quarterly dividend 24.3% to $0.46 from $0.37 (indicated yield 0.73%)
AKZA.NL TTN Summary of 03:00ET Earnings Call: Not planning for a significant market rebound in 2025; Expects low single-digit growth in China in 2025 in Decorative Paints as they believe the market has bottomed out after a significant decline in Q4 2024.
AKZA.NL Reports Q4 €0.56 v €0.56e, Rev €2.62B v €2.52Be
ASML.NL Reports Q4 Net €2.69B v €2.64Be, Rev €9.26B v €9.02Be; Guides Q1 strong; Notes a shift in the market dynamics that is not benefiting all of its customers equally; Raises FY dividend 4.9% to €6.40/shr
THRS 01-30
(US) Pres Trump announces Canadian and Mexican tariffs will be 25% because of Fentanyl
(EU) ECB CUTS KEY RATES BY 25BPS; AS EXPECTED
(US) Q4 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.3% V 2.6%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 4.2% V 3.2%E
(US) DEC PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -5.5% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: -2.9% V 4.2%E
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Disinflation process remains well on track; wage growth is moderating - Prepared Remarks
(ES) SPAIN JAN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: +0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 3.0% V 2.9%E
(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA CENTRAL BANK (SARB) CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS TO 7.50%; AS EXPECTED
(DE) GERMANY Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V 0.0%E
(EU) ECB chief Lagarde: Decision to cut by 25bps was unanimous; no discussion on terminal rate; Believes there is currently no stagflation - Q&A
(EU) EURO ZONE Q4 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.0%E
(UK) Reportedly halt at major 1,000 MW IFA-2 subsea electrical interconnector cable linking UK to France extended to 3PM Jan 30th – press
005930.KR Reports Q4 final (KRW) Net 7.58T v 7.05Te , Op 6.49T v 6.50T prelim, Rev 75.8T v 75.0T prelim; affirms 2025 memory Capex to be inline with 2024
(JP) JAPAN JAN TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.0%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.5%E
PPG Reports Q4 $1.61 v $1.65e, Rev $3.73B v $4.01Be; Guides lower than estimates; EPS grows weighted toward H2
VRTX FDA approves Journavx (suzetrigine) new type of nonopiod painkiller, first in decades
AAPL Guides Q2 Rev 'up low to mid single digits' y/y from $90.8B year ago (v $95.0Be), including 2.5ppt FX headwind; Services 'up low double digits'; Gross margin 46.5-47.5%; $15.1-15.3B opex - earnings call
AAPL Reports Q1 $2.40 v $2.36e, Rev $124.3B v $124.0Be; iPhone rev misses estimates
V Reports Q1 $2.75 v $2.66e, Rev $9.51B v $9.34Be
INTC Reports Q4 $0.13 v $0.12e, Rev $14.3B v $13.8Be; Guides below consensus
JNPR DOJ sues to block HPE's $14B, $40.00/shr all cash deal
WMT Canada unit announces $6.5B investment in its store and supply chain footprint, announcing dozens of new stores to be built across Canada over the next five years
APO Announces Partnership with Securitize and Launch Tokenized Access to Credit Fund on Aptos, Avalanche, Ethereum, Ink, Polygon, and Solana Networks
MA Reports Q4 $3.82 v $3.68e, Rev $7.49B v $7.38Be; Jan MTD Switched Transactions +11% y/y, Cross-border Volumes +18% y/y
MAN Reports Q4 $1.02 v $0.99e, Rev $4.40B v $4.42Be; Notes relatively stable activity at lower levels across North America and Europe and good demand elsewhere
SHW Reports Q4 $2.09 v $2.07e, Rev $5.30B v $5.32Be; "We expect demand softness to persist in several end markets well into the second half of the year, if not into 2026"
NOC Reports Q4 $6.39 v $6.27e, Rev $10.7B v $11.0Be
CAH Reports Q2 $1.93 v $1.75e, Rev $55.3B v $55.1Be
CAT Reports Q4 dealer statistics: Total machines -2% v -6% prior (4th consecutive drop)
CAT Guides Q1 Rev lower y/y [implies <$15.8B v $15.4Be], adj Op margin 'lower' y/y; Guides initial FY25 Rev slightly lower y/y [implied <$64.8B v $65.5Be]; Anticipate another year of services growth - earnings slides
DOW Guides Q1 Rev $10.3B v $10.9Be; Expect soft macroeconomic conditions to persist near-term across most end-markets and regions; Asset Footprint Update to be provided by mid-2025 - earning slides
OPENAI.IPO TTN Reminder: Axios report from Jan 20th stated that likely OpenAI may announce a next-level breakthrough that unleashes Ph.D.-level super-agents to do complex human tasks and CEO Altman scheduled a closed-door briefing for U.S. government officials today, on Jan 30th
CI Reports Q4 $6.64 v $7.83e, Rev $65.7B v $63.2Be; Cuts outlook, taking corrective actions to address cost pressures; Approves increase of $6.0B in incremental share repurchase authorization; Raises Quarterly dividend 7.9% to $1.51 from $1.40 (indicated yield 1.99%) payable on March 20, 2025 to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 05, 2025 (ex-date March 04)
UPS Reports Q4 $2.75 v $2.52e, Rev $25.3B v $25.3Be; Guides FY25 very weak; Reaches agreement in principle with its largest customer to lower its volume by more than 50% by H2 2026; Reconfiguring its U.S. network, and launching multi-year “efficiency reimagined” initiatives
NVDA Reportedly Chinese algorithm boosts Nvidia GPU performance 800-fold in science computing over traditional methods; The breakthrough by Chinese researchers could help solve complex problems in industries ranging from aerospace to bridge design – SCMP
EMR.UK Reports FY24 Trading Update: Net fee income down 6% CC LFL; Adj Pretax expected to at least meet current market expectations despite ongoing difficult trading conditions; Permanent placement continues to be challenging
BT.A.UK Reports Q3 Adj EBITDA £2.10B v £2.06e, Adj Rev £5.18B v £5.34B y/y
HMB.SE Reports Q4 (SEK) Net 3.08B v 1.58B y/y, Op 4.62B v 4.23Be, Rev 62.2B v 63.5Be; Dec 1st-Jan 28th Rev +4% y/y
SHEL.UK Reports Q4 $0.60 v $0.68e, Rev $66.3B v $78.7B y/y; Announces $3.5B share buyback and raises dividend
HLAG.DE Reports prelim FY24 EBIT $2.8B v $2.7Be, EBITDA $5.0B v $4.83B y/y, Rev $19.1B v $17.9B y/y
UHR.CH Reports FY24 (CHF) Net 219M v 890M y/y, Op 304M v 558Me, Rev 6.74B v 6.99Be; Notes expectation is that the habits and behaviour of Chinese consumers will continue to change
ROG.CH Reports Q4 (CHF) Rev 15.5B v 15.5Be
NOKIA.FI Reports Q4 €0.18 v €0.13e, Rev €5.98B v €5.74Be
ABBN.CH Reports Q4 $0.54 v $0.50 y/y, Oper EBITA $1.43B v $1.33B y/y, Rev $8.59B v $7.39Be
FRI 1/31
(US) White House Press Sec Leavitt: Feb 1st deadline for tariffs still holds; Pres Trump to implement 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China; Report on tariff deadline moving to March 1st is false
(US) Trump: Not looking for concessions; There is nothing that China, Mexico and Canada can do stop these tariffs; We may further increase tariffs; Will put tariffs on oil and gas by Feb 18th; Canada oil tariff will start at 10% (rather than 25%)
(US) DEC PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.7% V 0.5%E
(US) Q4 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 0.9% V 0.9%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Initial Q1 GDP estimate 2.9%
(DE) GERMANY JAN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.6%E
(DE) GERMANY JAN UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +11.0K V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: 6.2% V 6.1%E
(FR) FRANCE JAN PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 1.4% V 1.5%E
(EU) ECB Dec Consumer Expectation Survey: 1-year ahead CPI Expectations: 2.8% v 2.7%e
(FR) France Socialist Party's Vallaud: French lawmakers panel has reached agreement regarding 2025 budget [**Note: The text will now go to the lower house of French parliament]
E2open Ocean Shipping Index: Geopolitical Tensions, Labor Shortages and Port Congestion Driving Significant Increases in Global Transit Times
(US) Fed's Bowman (voter, hawk): Inflation still elevated with upside risk; Want to see more progress before adjusting rates; Important to get clarity on Trump's actual policies
V Recent Jan 1-28st U.S. Payments Volume Growth was around +8% y/y v +7% y/y during Dec - earnings supplement
NOVN.CH Reports Q4 Core EPS $1.98 v $1.81e, Rev $13.2B v $13.0Be
CVX Reports Q4 $2.06 adj v $2.19e, Rev $48.3B v $47.0Be; Raises dividend 5% to $1.71/shr; Plans to increase oil production by as much as 10% in the US Permian Basin in 2025
CVX Guides initial FY25 oil production 1Mbblepd; Plan to moderate growth and capex to drive predictable and durable FCF generation; Intend to maintain a buyback range of $10-20B/yr depending on market conditions; Targeting $2-3B in structural cost reductions
XOM Reports Q4 $1.67 adj v $1.56e, Rev $83.4B v $87.1Be
XOM Guides initial FY25 Cash Capex $27-29B v $26B y/y; In 2025, we’re starting up 10 key projects with 2026 >$3B earnings potential; Sees annual share buybacks $20B; First quarter is a turnaround season for Product Solutions, so we’re executing higher scheduled maintenance versus last quarter - earnings slides
CHD Reports Q4 $0.77 v $0.77e, Rev $1.58B v $1.56Be; Declared 4% increase in quarterly dividend from $0.28375 to $0.295/shr
GWW Reports Q4 $9.71 v $9.75e, Rev $4.23B v $4.23Be; FY25 guidance below esitmates
MTSR IPO opens for trade at $25.50
OPENAI.IPO Reportedly CEO Altman on Jan 30th presented new agentic technology coming in Q1 2025 that can independently complete tasks in the real world; Altman called it "a single-digit percent of the economic value we will pass to the U.S. economy" - Axios