US markets opened the week on solid footing helped in large part by reassuring news surrounding President-elect Donald Trump. His agenda received a boost in the wake of last week’s House speaker outcome, but also reports circulated he was likely to consider more targeted tariffs than what was proposed during his campaign. Trump unsurprisingly pushed back on that notion, wanting to keep his bargaining leverage intact before he takes office. Nevertheless, trading remained turbulent amid a continued backup in bond yields, globally. Solid EU economic readings were followed by hotter-than-expected ISM services and JOLTS jobs data in the US which then culminated in significantly hotter than expected December employment report on Friday. Separately, worries about a full blown UK crisis flared as the 10-year GILT yield hit its highest level since the height of the global financial crisis and the Sterling tumbled.
Headwinds to US stocks were formidable by Friday after the December employment report was hot on nearly every metric, including both the Establishment and Household surveys. Though subdued wage numbers may provide Fed Chair Powell and Co. some solace, higher rates, a stronger dollar and equity weakness ensued. The US 30-year yield briefly broke above 5% and the 10-year tested 4.75%. Adding to the consternation, the January University of Michigan inflation expectations also jumped significantly above 3%, and WTI crude prices rose nearly 5% on the anticipation of additional US sanctions on Russian crude. The VIX volatility index climbed back towards 20, while the US dollar index continued to print new highs going back more than two years. For the week, the S&P and DJIA each fell 1.9%, while the Nasdaq was off 2.3%.
Corporate news was centered on Nvidia’s CES presentations early in the week, and M&A stories emerged as a major theme as the days wore on. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pontificated on a wide variety of technology issues, from AI to robotics to quantum computing. As the ultimate AI hardware guru, he reiterated that the shift in computing is just beginning and suggested that intelligent humanoid robots could one day far outnumber humans on earth. His good vibes about AI were enough to turn Nvidia shares higher on Monday, though ultimately he and his CFO did not provide much in the way of new financial guidance and the stock ended down for the week. In a light week for earnings, Delta stood out as the latest airliner to report good news, proclaiming that 2025 could become its best financial year in its century of operations. Not everything was rosy on the earnings front as Constellation Brands took its biggest one day dive in a decade after missing expectations and cutting outlook on uncertainty about the timing of consumers returning to ‘normalized’ spending. In M&A news, Inari medical became the latest M&A target in the medtech field, agreeing to be acquired by Stryker for $4.9B. Constellation Energy announced it would acquire Calpine, the largest U.S. producer of energy from low-emission natural gas generation, in a $29B deal that was applauded by the market. And Fubo announced a deal to be merged into Disney’s Hulu business.
MON 1-06
(CA) Canada PM Trudeau: Confirms to step down as soon as the Liberal Party chooses a replacement; Also confirms work at Parliament to be suspended until March 24th
(DE) GERMANY DEC PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.6% V 2.4%E (highest annual pace since Jan 2024)
(EU) EURO ZONE JAN SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: -17.7 V -17.9E
(IT) ITALY DEC SERVICES PMI: 50.7 V 50.0E (moves back into expansion); Cost and charge inflation pick up
(UK) Wind turbines in the UK have overtaken gas plants for first time as number one source of electricity - financial press
(US) NOV FACTORY ORDERS: -0.4% V -0.4%E
(US) Truflation proxy of US aggregated Inflation Index at 2.9% v 3.1% w/w, which was near highs of autumn 2023; Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast forecasting Dec US CPI Y/Y (to be out on Jan 15th) to accelerate again to 2.9% from 2.7%; Then, forecasting Jan US CPI Y/Y (to be out next month) to stay roughly unchanged from Dec forecast at 2.9%
(US) PRES-ELECT TRUMP'S AIDES EXPLORE "UNIVERSAL" TARIFF PLANS FOR EVERY COUNTRY BUT WHICH WOULD ONLY COVER CRITICAL IMPORTS - WAPO [**Note: As a candidate, Trump called for “universal” tariffs of as high as 10-20% on everything imported into the US]
(US) DEC FINAL S&P SERVICES PMI: 56.8 V 58.5E (confirms 23rd month of expansion)
(US) Fed's Barr (voter) plans to step down as vice chair for supervision on Feb 28th; Will continue to serve as governor
(US) State of Louisiana reports first US bird flu (H5) related death
(US) On Friday, US House passed new rules package which includes provision that would require nine members of the Republican conference to trigger a 'motion to vacate' the Speakership (update)
(US) Pres-elect Trump: Washington Post story that I'll pare back my tariff policy is wrong - Truth Social post
700.HK (CN) US Pentagon has added Chinese firms Tencent, CATL, Autel Robotics, Changxin Memory Tech, Quectel Wireless to list of companies alleged to be helping the Chinese military
ASTS Announces agreement for long-term access to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band spectrum in the United States for direct-to-device satellite applications
CMC Reports Q1 $0.78 v $0.78e, Rev $1.91B v $1.89Be; Very encouraged by its recent conversations with customers and the optimism they have voiced about the coming quarters, measures of both big and small business confidence have improved significantly over the last two months
FUBO Confirms to Combine with Disney’s Hulu + Live TV Virtual MVPD Businesses; In connection therewith, at signing of the Transaction, Disney, FOX and Warner Bros. Discovery will make an aggregate cash payment to Fubo of $220M
FUBO Reportedly Disney nears deal to merge Hulu+ Live into Fubo; Disney will own majority stake in new venture with Fubo; Fubo to drop litigation related to Venu Sports as part of deal - press (update)
NARI Stryker announces definitive agreement to acquire Inari for $80/shr in cash, valuing it at $4.9B
NVDA Launches Cosmos World Foundation Model Platform to Accelerate Physical AI Development
ULTA Appoints Kecia Steelman President and COO as CEO, effective immediately; Raises Q4 outlook due to stronger than expected holiday season; Sees Q4 SSS increase modestly and Op margin will be above the high-end of the company’s previous expected range
TUES 1-07
(CH) SWISS DEC CPI M/M: -0.1% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.6% V 0.6%E
(CN) CHINA DEC FOREIGN RESERVES: $3.202T V $3.273TE
(EU) EURO ZONE DEC ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E (highest since July 2024); CPI CORE Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.7%E (Core CPI does not decelerate for 4th straight month)
(EU) Euro Zone Nov ECB Consumer Expectation Survey: 1-year ahead CPI expectations: 2.6% v 2.5% prior
(IT) Italy Dec Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
(US) ILA union and port owners held secret meeting on automation as new strike looms; A document produced from the meeting indicates ports willing to pair any new technology with new union jobs, but it could also introduce new risks to a deal - CNBC [**Note: earlier, reports that leaders from a US dockworkers’ union and the group that represents their employers are set to resume contract talks on Tue, Jan 7th ahead of Jan 15th's deadline]
(US) NOV JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 8.098M V 7.740ME
(US) US Pres-elect Trump said to plan announcement of $20B investment in US data centers – CNBC
(US) Redfin: More than one-third (34%) of U.S. homeowners say they’ll never sell their home, and another 27% say they wouldn’t consider selling for at least 10 years
(US) TREASURY'S $39B 10-YEAR NOTE REOPENING DRAWS 4.680% V 4.235% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.53 V 2.70 PRIOR AND 2.56 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) DOJ sues six large US landlords over algorithmic pricing schemes
(US) JPMorganChase’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook: Confidence in the national economy has jumped 12ppts y/y to 55% among small business owners, and more than doubled from 31% to 65% among midsize business leaders; Inflation remains a top concern as most small business owners are seeing an increase in business expenses, and more than three-quarters of midsize business leaders feel costs are rising
(US) US Pres Elect Trump: Confirms UAE DAMAC's Edgnex data centers upcoming investment of at least $20B
(US) US Pres Elect Trump: Confirms UAE DAMAC's Edgnex data centers upcoming investment of at least $20B
(US) DEC ISM SERVICES INDEX: 54.1 V 53.5E; Prices Paid: 64.4 v 57.5e (the first time >60 since Jan 2024 and ~2-yrs
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q4 GDP forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%
005930.KR Reports prelim Q4 (KRW) Op 6.50T v 6.93Te (2.80T y/y), Rev 75.0T v 77.2Te (67.0T y/y); Earnings in its core semiconductor division were hit by cooling demand for computers and handsets and the greater investments needed to expand capacity for advanced chip manufacturing
066570.KR Reports prelim Q4 (KRW) Op 146.1B v 368.7Be (v 312.5B y/y), Rev 22.8T v 22.7Te (v 23.2T y/y)
BWXT Enters Agreement to Acquire Kinectrics, a Leading Service Provider to the Global Nuclear Market for ~$525M including assumption of Kinectrics’ net pension and debt liabilities
NVDA TTN Summary of 11:00ET JP Morgan Fireside Chat: Expects strong market reception and product cycle for Blackwell GeForce GPUs with 2x performance over last generation; shipping starts in January, including DLSS 4 technology; Blackwell shipments are on track, as expected
NVDA Tier1 analysts: NVDA has fine-tuned the stock Llama models for easier enterprise AI adoption, specifically for agentic AI, where custom AI agents help solve complex problems and automate repetitive tasks; NVDA now offers tools where its AI agents are capable of both language and video/image perception abilities to be applied to various real-life applications
NVDA TTN Summary of 21:30ET NVIDIA CES 2025 Keynote: Announces new RTX Blackwell family GPUs (RTX 50 series); Blackwell supercomputers are in full production; Introduces compact AI supercomputer; Unveils NVIDIA Cosmos, pen-licensed world foundation model for physical AI; Announces NVIDIA Llama Nemotron suite of open models based on Meta's Llama 3.1, optimized for enterprise use and domain fine-tuning; models rank number one in chat, instruction, and retrieval leaderboards.
SANA Announces Positive Clinical Results from Type 1 Diabetes Study of Islet Cell Transplantation Without Immunosuppression; First-in-Human Study Provides Evidence that Sana’s Hypoimmune (HIP) Technology Enables Transplanted Islet Cells to Avoid Immune Rejection and Produce Insulin Without Immunosuppression
SSP E.W. Scripps, Gray Media, Nexstar Media Group and Sinclair launched new JV company EdgeBeam Wireless to provide robust wireless data services to a wide range of businesses and industries across the country (update)
SSP E.W. Scripps, Gray Media, Nexstar Media Group and Sinclair launched new JV company EdgeBeam Wireless to provide robust wireless data services to a wide range of businesses and industries across the country (update)
WEDS 1-08
(US) US dockworkers reach tentative pact for six year contract to avert strike at East Coast, Gulf Coast Ports
(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast cuts Jan US CPI Y/Y (to be out next month) forecast from 2.9% to 2.8%, implying deceleration v its estimate for Dec US CPI Y/Y (to be out on Jan 15th) at 2.9%; Truflation proxy of US aggregated Inflation Index at 2.9% v 3.1% w/w, which was near highs of autumn 2023
(US) MORE PRESS REPORTS TRUMP AGAIN WEIGHS EMERGENCY DECLARATION FOR NEW TARIFF PROGRAM - CNN (as widely expected) [**Note: Declaring national emergency would allow Trump to impose tariffs with less procedural hurdles; Trump previously invoked International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in 2019 to threaten tariffs on Mexican goods, and courts have upheld similar actions, such as Nixon’s emergency tariffs in 1971]
(US) Dec Manheim wholesale used vehicle Index: 204.8 v 205.4 prior; -0.8% m/m; +0.4% y/y
(US) NOV FINAL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%E
(US) DOE CRUDE: -1M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +6.3M V +0.5ME; DISTILLATE: +6.1M V +0.5ME
(US) FOMC DEC MINUTES: OFFICIALS SAW GRADUAL EASING OF LABOR MARKET, NO SIGNS OF RAPID DETERIORATION; SOME OFFICIALS SAW MERIT IN HOLDING RATES STEADY IN DECEMBER
(JP) JAPAN NOV LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 3.0% V 2.7%E (highest since Aug, 2024)
(US) LA Fire Chief: Eaton fire continues to grow with zero containment; Fires are a widespread disaster
(US) Fed's Waller (voter for 2025): Inflation downtrend likely support more cuts; To support cuts in 2025 if outlook as expected
(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -40 BCF VS. -51 BCF TO -53 BCF INDICATED RANGE
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 201K V 215KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.867M V 1.860ME
(US) TREASURY $22B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.913% V 4.535% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.52 V 2.39 PRIOR AND 2.41 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS (highest yield at auction since Aug 2007)
(CN) CHINA DEC CPI Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.1%E (weakest since Apr 2024)
(JP) JAPAN NOV LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 3.0% V 2.7%E (highest since Aug, 2024)
NVDA *(US) Biden Admin plans additional curbs on exports of AI chips from Nvidia and AMD in final days of the Administration; 3-tier system of trade curbs on chips could be announced as soon as Fri, Jan 10th; The result would be an expansion of chip trade curbs to most of the world; Also the new rules to limit the export of closed AI model weights - press
ACI Reports Q3 $0.71 v $0.66e, Rev $18.8B v $18.8Be; Raises FY EPS and EBITDA, narrows rev; Notes the consumer remains cautious; Sees robust productivity agenda to provide fuel to invest in the business
CEG Said to be closing in on almost $30B deal for Calpine; May announce deal within weeks – press
HELE Reports Q3 $2.67 v $2.61e, Rev $530.7M v $530Me
THRS 1-09
(US) Fed's Schmid (voter; hawk): Strength of the economy allows the Fed to be patient; Rates may be very close to the longer run neutral rate
(US) Fed's Bowman (voter, hawk): Continue to prefer a cautious and gradual approach to adjusting rates; Inflation is elevated with upside risks, and progress has stalled
(US) Redfin: The median U.S. asking rent fell 0.3% yearover year in December to $1,594—the lowest level since March 2022; Notes asking rents may not have much further to fall this year given that apartment construction has begun to slow
(US) Elon Musk: DOGE budget-cutting effort would most likely Not find $2T in savings; $2T figure was a “best-case outcome” and there was only a “good shot” at cutting half that - interview broadcast on X
(UK) Treasury Min Jones: No need for emergency intervention; Financial markets continue to function in an orderly way; Only OBR forecast can predict impact of GILT moves on fiscal headroom
2007.HK Announces the key terms of its restructuring proposal; Reaches understanding with the co-ordination committee; If implemented, Restructuring Proposal will enable the Group to achieve significant deleveraging, with a targeted reduction of indebtedness up to $11.6B
TSLA CEO Musk: Targets to produce several thousand of humanoid robots Optimus in 2025; In 2026, assuming everything goes well, aim to produce 50-100K humanoid robots and then 10x the output in 2027 - press
FRI 1-10
(RU) US Treasury Dept confirms Russia sanctions; Publishes determination "Energy Sector of the Russian Federation Economy"
(UK) Rising GILT yields reportedly triggers pension cash calls in first big test since 2022 crisis – press
(US) Fed's Musalem (voter): Further rate reductions have to be gradual and more gradual than I thought in September; Since September, the picture changed; The economic data came in stronger and the inflation numbers printed higher than desired. So I changed my assessment of risks - WSJ
US) DEC CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +256K V +165KE (above all analysts' estimates)
(US) DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.1% V 4.2%E
(US) DEC AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.9% V 4.0%E
(US) USDA WORLD AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY DEMAND ESTIMATES (WASDE) CROP REPORT End 2024/2025 US Stocks (M bu): Soybeans: 380 v 454e; Corn: 1,540 v 1,678e; Wheat: 798 v 807e
(US) JAN PRELIMINARY UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 73.2 V 74.0E; 1-year inflation expectations 3.3% v 2.8%e; 5-10 year inflation expectations 3.3% v 3.0%e
(CA) CANADA DEC NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT: +90.9K V +25.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.7% V 6.9%E
DIS Venu Sports will be discontinued; A joint state from ESPN, FOX and WBD said: "We determined that it was best to meet the evolving demands of sports fans by focusing on existing products and distribution channels." - press
NVDA Announces Blueprint for AI Retail Shopping Assistants
NVDA Tier1 analysts after attending investor dinner with NVDA CFO Colette Kress: Nvidia downplayed potential for custom ASICs' rapid share gains; Blackwell transition well-progressing, Hopper mix dependent on supplies. Mid-70%s GM likely once Blackwell begins full ramp
DAL Reports Q4 $1.85 v $1.76e, Rev $14.4B v $14.2Be; Guides Q1 strong; During Nov-Dec, saw four of the top ten revenue days in the company's history
DAL CEO: Delta Air Lines could see 2025 becoming the airline’s best financial year since its founding a century ago; Notes the growing number willing to shell out for premium seats - FT pre-earnings interview
STZ Reports Q3 $3.25 v $3.34e, Rev $2.46B v $2.54Be; Cuts outlook noting uncertainty on when consumers will revert to more normalized spending
SNX Reports Q4 $3.09 v $3.06e, Rev $15.8B v $15.3Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 10% to $0.44 from $0.40 (indicated yield 1.43%)
WBA Reports Q1 $0.51 v $0.37e, Rev $39.5B v $37.1Be
(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: DEC TOTAL CARD SPENDING +2.2% Y/Y V +0.6% IN NOV; Calendar shifts continue to confound; Notes the inexorable shift toward online spending; Unfavorable seasonal factor for nonstore retailers, which now account for nearly 1/3 of the control group, creates downside risks.
CEG Confirms to acquire the largest U.S. producer of energy from low-emission natural gas generation, Calpine in stock-cash deal based on EV of $29.1B; The agreement creates the nation’s largest clean energy provider; Sees immediate adj op EPS accretion of more than 20% in 2026 and at least $2 per share of EPS accretion in future years
MSFT To take legal action to protect the public from abusive AI-generated content - blog post
MVST Announces significant milestone in the development of its True All-Solid-State Battery (ASSB) technology; Microvast's technology completely eliminates liquid electrolytes, which allows a single cell to achieve dozens of volts or higher based on specific application needs; Advancing to the next phase, the pilot production study