As US stocks opened up this week, the consternation about banks and potential boogeymen on their balance sheets quickly abated. Sentiment and breadth were positive despite little hope that DC lawmakers were moving towards any deal to reopen the US government. Earnings season forged further to the forefront of most investors’ minds amid a deluge of consumer and industrial earnings announcements. By mid-week, rotation could be seen in portions of the equity markets as well as flows into US Treasury debt. High flying sectors like metals and AI stack-related names saw relative weakness while industrial groups, healthcare, and staples responded better following the posting of key quarterly results. On Tuesday, gold prices saw one of the wildest trading moves in more than a decade after months of run up. Prices dropped more than 6% from most recent high, snapping a 10-week winning streak. Crude prices continued tracking lower, heading further into the mid to high $50’s range before bouncing meaningfully into the end of the week. The US Department of Energy indicated it would purchase 1M barrels for the SPR and, perhaps more importantly, the Trump Administration announced additional sanctions aimed directly at Russian oil producers amid the President’s growing frustration with Putin over the Ukraine war.
UK stocks and bonds experienced early relative strength in the wake of cooler than expected UK CPI data. Eurozone and German PMIs exceeded forecasts, boosting the euro to a three-week high versus sterling. UK PMIs were better as well, with manufacturing coming in above all estimates. Friday’s September US CPI print was below estimates which solidified expectations the Fed will cut two more times this years including next week. The delayed inflation reading buoyed risk appetite and sentiment, further offsetting stepped up rhetoric from President Trump surrounding his tariff policy. Canada returned as a flash point on the trade front while key members of the Administration arrived in Asia ahead of a still-on-for-now summit between Xi and Trump next week.
In corporate events this week, earnings season intensified the scrutiny of some high flying high tech ventures, and allowed some other sectors to shine through. 3M Company gave investors an excellent report and share surged as management touted a China business that remains resilient and growing, a rare case amid the trade war. GE Aerospace also kept chugging along with a strong earnings report and higher guidance, while also announce the $5.3B acquisition of the remaining 50% stake in its Prolec GE venture. General Motors reported spectacular numbers and was rewarded with a breakout in its share price, as executives trimmed their forecast for tariff impacts and confirmed the slowdown in the EV since the end of US subsidies. Ford also had great Q3 numbers, outweighing a FY guidance cut related to a supply issue resulting from a fire at the premier aluminum sheet provider in the US (Novelis). Tesla had worse number to report, missing estimates and warning that it has become difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies on the automotive and energy supply chains. On the AI front, Google scored a deal worth tens of billions of dollars from the surging OpenAI challenger Anthropic, poaching some business from Amazon’s AWS. Some of the market’s most speculative names got a new boost reports stating they would get favorable treatment for the Trump Administration. Oklo and other small nuclear reactor names were helped by a report that indicated the nuclear startups would be given access to nuclear grade plutonium. Meanwhile, quantum computing names saw a correction in the sector halted by reports that the White House is mulling taking stakes in the highly strategic sector. For the trading week, the S&P ended up 1.9%, the DJIA gained 2.2%, and the Nasdaq added 2.3%.
MON 10-20
(AU) White House releases sheet on critical minerals framework with Australia; DOD will invest in Gallium refinery; US additionally secures more access to US beef in Australia; Australia funds will raise US investment to $1.44T by 2035
(CN) US's National Foreign Trade Council said to urge Trump administration to cancel a rule that is leading to drop off in US exports and will result in foreign trade partners cutting US firms out of global trade flows – press
(KR) South Korea and US reportedly agree to sign trade MOU during Trump's visit – press
(UR) Reportedly during Friday's meeting, Trump told Zelenskiy he was losing the war, warning: “If Putin wants it, he will destroy you”; Trump also reportedly said that Russia’s economy is “doing great”, in a sharp contrast to his recent public remarks - FT (update)
(VE) Reportedly Pres Trump’s military build-up off the coast of Venezuela is aimed at convincing President Maduro and his inner circle that staying in power will be more costly than leaving - FT (update)
BABA Said to have introduced Aegaeon computing pooling solution that it said led to an 82% cut in the number of Nvidia graphics processing units (GPUs) needed to serve its AI models and potentially reshaping AI workloads – SCMP
CCK Reports Q3 $2.24 v $1.98e, Rev $3.20B v $3.19Be; Raises FY guidance
CLF Reports Q3 -$0.45 v -$0.48e, Rev $4.7B v $4.89Be; Entered MoU with undisclosed major global steel producer; Notes Q3 results show a richer sales mix and improved pricing and expect this trend to accelerate into 2026; Geological surveys at Michigan and Minnesota sites show key indicators of rare-earth mineralization
ODFL Announces general rate increase (GRI) of 4.9% applicable to rates established under the existing ODFL 559, 670, and 550 tariffs effective Nov 3, 2025; Intended to partially offset the rising costs of real estate, new equipment, technology investments, and competitive employee wage and benefit packages
OPENAI.IPO Reportedly ChatGPT's new user growth slowed after April; global DAU growth has flattened over the past month; October is on pace for an 8.1% m/m drop in the percentage change of global downloads, though the app still adds millions of installs per day - TechCrunch citing third-party app intelligence firm Apptopia (update)
TUES 10-21
(CA) CANADA SEPT CPI M/M: +0.1% V -0.1%E Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.2%E
(JP) JAPAN PARLIAMENT FORMALLY ELECTS TAKAICHI AS PRIME MINISTER
(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Don’t see need to review BOJ-govt accord now; Determined to defend Japan's national interests through diplomacy and security; Now is not time to dissolve Parliament; No need to review BoJ-govt agreement now; BoJ's monetary policy is part of broader economic policy, for which the govt holds responsibility
(US) Dept of Energy to purchase 1M bbl for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for delivery in Dec 2025 and Jan 2026 – press
(US) Redfin: U.S. home prices rose 0.2% from a month earlier in September on a seasonally adjusted basis; On a year-over-year basis, home prices rose 3%, the slowest rate recorded in Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI) data going back to 2012
ABNB CEO Chesky: OpenAI not ready for integration with AirBNB; Airbnb 'relies heavily' on Alibaba's Qwen models to power its AI customer service agent – press
ADS.DE Reports prelim Q3 Op €736M v €688Me, Rev €6.63B v €6.7Be; Raises FY Op outlook on brand momentum and tariff mitigation
CB Reports Q3 core op income $7.49 v $5.94e, Net Premiums Written $14.9B v $13.8B y/y
ELV Reports Q3 $6.03 v $4.98e, Rev $50.1B v $49.5Be; Notes dynamic healthcare environment
GE Reports Q3 $1.66 adj v $1.46e, Rev $12.2B v $10.3Be; Raises outlook again due to expectations of Q4
GM Reports Q3 $2.80 v $2.25e, Rev $48.6B v $44.2Be; Raises outlook
GOOGL Reportedly Antrophic in talks for Google cloud deal worth tens of billions of Dollars - press
HAL Reports Q3 $0.58 adj v $0.50e, Rev $5.60B v $5.39Be
META Announces JV with Funds Managed by Blue Owl Capital to Develop the $27B Hyperion Data Center; To hold a 20% stake
OKLO US DOE said to be planning to offer companies access to nuclear grade plutonium; Oklo and France's Newcleo said to be among the applicants – FT
OPENAI.IPO ChatGPT Atlas browser understands the information it's displaying, integrates sidechat for searching and aggregating information - video presentation
MMM Reports Q3 $2.19 v $2.10e, Adj Rev $6.3B v $6.25Be; Raises FY EPS and organic Rev outlook
NOC Reports Q3 $7.67 adj v $6.49e, Rev $10.4B v $10.7Be; Raises FY EPS view and cuts Rev
PHM TTN Summary of 08:30ET Earnings Call: Early-Oct trends mirror Q3; Buyers proceeding with caution despite lower rates due to economic and job concerns; Sees potential ~$1.5k/home build cost increase starting in 2026; Land spend for 2025 set at ~$5 billion (5% y/y decline), maintaining a robust pipeline to support future growth when demand rebounds
RTX Reports Q3 $1.70 adj v $1.42e, Rev $22.5B v $21.5Be; Raises guidance
WAL Reports Q3 $2.28 v $2.11e, Net Rev $938M v $888Me
WBD Warner Bros. Discovery confirms initiates Review of Potential Alternatives to Maximize Shareholder Value
WED 10-22
(CN) EU said to prepare trade options to counter China rare earths restrictions - press
(CN) Trump administration said to consider plan to restrict global exports to China that contain or are made with US software – press
(RU) US Treasury Dept: Targeting Russian integrated oil & gas companies Rosneft and Lukoil in latest round of sanctions [**Note: Pres Trump later on sanctions: "We hope they won't be on for long and that the war will be settled"]
(UK) SEPT CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 3.8% V 4.0%E
(US) Automakers are pushing for Trump administration to refrain from imposing new tariffs on factory robots and industrial machinery - press
(US) Tier1 analysts after call with legal experts: Legal experts judged that it’s too hard to predict the outcome of the IEEPA case; In terms of the timeline, the case could be decided by some time in December at the earliest. Experts agreed that if the court found tariffs to be unlawful then they would need to be refunded. Revenue from all IEEPA enacted tariffs totaled $89bn in FY 25
(US) TRUFLATION PROXY OF US AGGREGATED INFLATION INDEX ROSE TO 2.3% (HIGHEST SINCE FEB) V 2.2% W/W V 1.4% BEFORE 'LIBERATION DAY'
AAPL *REPORTEDLY DRASTICALLY CUTTING IPHONE AIR PRODUCTION ORDERS, BUT SAME TIME BOOSTING ORDERS FOR OTHER IPHONE 17 MODELS – Nikkei
AKZA.NL Reports Q3 Net -€194M v +€164Me, Adj EBITDA €385M v €386e, Rev €2.55B v €2.52Be; Notes Net hit by €300M provision related to court case; India divestment on track to close in Dec
APH Reports Q3 $0.93 v $0.79e, Rev $6.19B v $5.48Be; Organic net sales +41% y/y; Raises quarterly dividend 51.5% to $0.25 from $0.165 (indicated yield 0.78%)
CA.FR Reports Q3 Rev €22.6B v €23.4Be; Affirms outlook; CFO declined to comment on whether political crisis in France could impact demand in Q4
GOOGL Willow quantum chip demonstrates the first-ever algorithm to achieve verifiable quantum advantage on hardware
HEIA.NL Reports Q3 adj Rev €7.33B v €7.36Be; Guides FY25 volumes to decline modestly
HLT Reports Q3 $2.11 v $2.04e, Rev $3.12B v $3.02Be; Sees stronger RevPAR growth over the next several years
KER.FR Reports Q3 Rev €3.42B v €3.31Be
KNX *TTN Summary of 16:30ET Earnings Call: Taking a cautious view on Q4: LTL demand appears softer in the first two weeks of Q4 versus normal seasonality; base freight demand has been stable through mid-October, but the usual seasonal build hasn’t materialized and recent “overnight” peak projects may not recur
LRCX Reports Q1 $1.26 v $1.22e, Rev $5.32B v $5.22Be; Guides Q2 strong
META Reportedly Meta is cutting several hundred roles from its AI unit even as it continues to hire for its newer TBD Lab – Axios
POLITIX TTN Research Alert: The New Gerrymander (“Dummymander”) Trilemma: Inside the State-by-State Redistricting Blitz That Sets the House Math Before a Single Ad Airs; How Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina Built a Quiet R+7 and Why California’s Prop 50 Could Lower Bar for Dems Next Month
SAP.DE Reports Q3 €1.59 v €1.46e, Rev €9.08B v €9.13Be; Guides FY cloud Rev to lower end of range and Op profit to upper end of range (update)
TSLA Reports Q3 $0.50 adj v $0.53e, Rev $28.1B v $26.5Be; Difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies on the automotive and energy supply chains
TSLA TTN Summary Earnings Call: Tesla A5 AI chip design removes legacy GPU/ISP blocks for radical simplicity; Confident we can expand Tesla's production [does not provide timeline]; production-intent Optimus prototype will be ready to show off in Q1, likely February or March; Musk says Tesla’s idle cars could provide 100GW of distributed inference capacity
VRT Reports Q3 $1.24 v $1.00e, Rev $2.68B v $2.58Be; Raises outlook; Guides Q4 Rev strong; Organic Orders ~+60% y/y; Sees strategically positioned to deliver strong growth for the balance of 2025 and for 2026
VRT Provides look into 2026; Expecting AI infrastructure deployment in EMEA to accelerate in 2026; While tariffs remain fluid and uncertain, our execution of tariff countermeasures remains in focus. We are currently positioned to materially offset this impact exiting first quarter 2026, driving a year-over-year tailwind for full year 2026 - earnings slides
THRS 10-23
(AR) White House: Confirms increasing Argentina beef import tariff rate quota to 80K tons to reduce prices
(CN) Reportedly China state oil companies suspending seaborne imports of Russian crude out of fear over Western sanctions – press
(CN) CHINA COMMUNIST PARTY 4TH COMMUNIQUE: Approves draft of next 5-year plan (2026-31); replaces 11th Central Party Committee members (highest personnel turnover since 2017 amid an ongoing military purge); To greatly revitalize consumption ; To boost homegrown tech and core tech breakthroughs
(EU) EURO ZONE OCT ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -14.2 V -15.0E
(JP) RENGO [LARGEST TRADE UNION IN JAPAN] SEEK WAGE HIKES OF 5% OR MORE IN 2026 V 5.25% ON AVERAGE IN 2025 - PRESS
(US) SEPT EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.06M V 4.06ME
(US) Tier1 analysts: Now expect the Fed to stop QT at the end of Oct vs prior expectation at end Dec; Elevated repo prints over recent days drove our change; At Oct FOMC we now expect 2 things: (1) QT cessation at end Oct (2) mortgage repayments immediately invested into UST bills. MBS to UST bills should be $10-20b/m.
(US) Trump Admin planning to open nearly all of US coast to offshore drilling exploration – press
AAL Reports Q3 -$0.17 v -$0.27e, Rev $13.7B v $13.6Be; Guides Q4 strong and raises FY outlook
AIR.FR Leonardo, Airbus and Thales confirm MoU to create a leading European player in space; The new company expected to be operational in 2027
DOW Guides Q4 Rev $9.4B v $10.0Be; Affirms FY25 Capex ~$2.5B (prior: ~$2.5B) - earnings slides
DOW Reports Q3 -$0.19 v -$0.31e, Rev $10.0B v $10.2Be; Notes near-term market backdrop remains largely unchanged across the end markets Dow serves
DSV.DK Reports Q3 (DKK) Adj Net 3.73B v 3.00B y/y, EBIT 5.43B v 4.42B y/y, Rev 72.0B v 44.1B y/y; Notes integration of Schenker maintained strong momentum; Trims outlook citing current market uncertainties related to trade tariffs, the geopolitical landscape, including the Red Sea situation, and macroeconomic factors, are expected to persist
F Reports Q3 $0.45 v $0.38e, Rev $50.5B v $42.7Be; Cuts outlook; Sees $1.5-2B adj EBIT hit in 2025 from Novelis fire, expect to mitigate at least $1.0B of adjusted EBIT in 2026
Flexport CEO: This time around [ahead of Nov 1st' tariff deadline] volumes haven’t dropped, importers all seem to think Trump will back off the 100% tariff increase before Nov 1st; Their cargo is already on the water though, so if the tariffs do go into effect next week will be brutal for importers. (update)
INTC Reports Q3 $0.23 adj v $0.01e, Rev $13.7B v $13.1Be; "Current demand is outpacing supply, a trend we expect will persist into 2026.”
NEM Reports Q3 $1.71 v $1.29e, Rev $5.52B v $4.97Be
NOKIA.FI Reports Q3 €0.06 v $0.06e, Rev €4.83B v €4.64Be; Notes order intake trends in Optical Networks and IP Networks remained strong
ROG.CH Reports Q3 (CHF) Rev 14.9B v 15.2Be; Notes groundbreaking next-generation sequencing technology set to launch next year
SMCI Q1 update: Recent design wins in excess of $12B; Affirms FY26 Rev $33B [does not provide specific Q1 guidance]
TMUS Reports Q3 $2.41 v $2.42e, Rev $22.0B v $21.8Be; Raises EBITDA and net additions outlook
TRU Reports Q3 $1.10 v $1.04e, Rev $1.17B v $1.13Be; Announces new up to $1B increase to share buyback
UNA.NL Reports Q3 Rev €14.7B v €14.9Be; Sees H2 ahead of H1; Ice Cream Demerger expected to complete in Q4 2025
ORCL *Reportedly banks anticipate launch of $38B debt offering as soon as Monday to fund Oracle-tied data centers - press
FRI 10-24
(US) PRES. TRUMP: THE RONALD REAGAN FOUNDATION HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT CANADA HAS FRAUDULENTLY USED AN ADVERTISEMENT THAT INTERFERES WITH THE US SUPREME COURT; ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED - post on Truth Social
(CA) Canada PM Carney: We can't control trade policy of US; We recognize US policy has changed; Stand ready to pick up on trade talks progress when US is ready - comments before departing for Malaysia for ASEAN summit
(IN) India and US reportedly discussing a few non-tariff barriers and are very close to a trade deal - press cites official (unclear if Indian or US)
(FR) FRANCE'S SOCIALISTS HAVE REPORTEDLY THREATENED TO TOPPLE THE GOVT BY MONDAY IF THEIR BUDGET CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET; WOULD FILE A NO-CONFIDENCE BILL EARLY NEXT WEEK IF BILLIONAIRES ARE NOT FORCED TO PAY MORE TAX – PRESS
(CO) US Treasury Dept's Office of Foreign Asset Controls (OFAC) places Specially Designated National (SDN) sanctions Colombia Pres Petro
(US) Pres Trump said to plan new class of Navy warships to counter China and other threats - WSJ
(US) Fed proposes changes to increase bank stress test transparency; Will disclose and solicit feedback on stress test models and scenarios for first time under new proposal; Fed will vote on proposed changes later today (10/24)
(CA) Ontario govt: Will take down anti-tariff ads after US Pres Trump ends trade talks - Canadian press
(US) SEPT CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.0% V 3.1%E (highest annual pace since Jan)
(US) OCT FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 53.6 V 54.5E; Current conditions: 58.6 v 60.8e (lowest since Nov 2022); 5-10 year inflation expectations 3.9% v 3.7%e
(US) OCT PRELIMINARY S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 52.2 V 52.0E (3rd month of expansion); Expectations about year ahead output dropping to one of the lowest seen over the past three years; Companies are also concerned over disappointing export sales, especially in manufacturing, and factories are seeing an unprecedented rise in unsold stock.
(UK) OCT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.6 V 46.6E (above all estimates, 1-year high, but 13th month of contraction)
(DE) GERMANY OCT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.6 V 49.5E (40th month of contraction)
(FR) FRANCE OCT PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.3 V 48.2E (2nd month of contraction)
(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast still sees Sept CPI Y/Y (to be released today) to re-accelerate again to 3.0% from 2.9%; Sees Oct CPI Y/Y (to be out next month if US govt reopens) to stay unchanged at 3.0%
PG CEO: Rescinded price increases in Canada which helped a lot in the quarter; We will see what the President says tonight - CNBC
IBM Exec: IBM is running quantum computing algorithm on widely available AMD chips - press interview
P911.DE Reports 9M Oper €40M v €4.0B y/y, Rev €26.9B v €28.6B y/y; Sees FY25 charges €3.1B for strategic realignment; Need to discuss large-scale realignment with employee reps; Must assume market conditions won't improve for foreseeable future
BAM Said to enter discussions with Santee Cooper to buy two dormant nuclear reactors in South Carolina - WSJ