Stocks surged coming out of the long Memorial Day weekend after President Trump noted he liked what he has heard from EU officials over the weekend so much that he was delaying the 50% tariff implementation he introduced last Friday. Outside of several high profile tech earnings reports, trade related headlines would dominate investor focus throughout the remainder of the week, but markets for the most part remained subdued in their response. The S&P ran up towards 6K after the US Court of International Trade blocked Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs only to see those tariffs temporarily reinstated by an Appeals court hours later. The case appears headed to the Supreme Court, but regardless the Administration argued they have multiple levers to pull if the ultimate outcome doesn’t go the President’s way. The Treasury Secretary and others emphasized nothing has changed in regards to ongoing trade negations with several deals still likely to be announced soon. On the other hand, Bessent also revealed talks with China have stalled. The President vented his frustration in another pointed Truth Social post on Friday, calling out the Chinese for violating the handshake agreement reached in Switzerland earlier this month that resulted in both sides bringing down tariffs.
A retreat in global bond yields certainly helped overall sentiment this week after Japanese officials mused about pulling back on long dated JGB issuance. US Treasury offerings were well received throughout the week as well. May PCE inflation data continued to move in the right direction. Richmond Fed data also showed modest improvement along with various sentiment readings. Crude oil prices moved down into an OPEC+ meeting this weekend where producers could agree on hiking output by more than the 411K bpd/month trajectory they have been on. The US 10-year yield finished near the lows of the week backing away from 4.5%. The VIX moved back up towards 20 on Friday, spurred by the resurgent US/China trade war escalation. For the week, the S&P gained 1.9%, the DJIA rose 1.6%, and the Nasdaq was up 2%.
Some big tech and retail earnings rounded out the Q1 earnings season, with some surprising results (and some not so surprising). Nvidia announced it had to eat an $8B loss on H20 chips due to the White House’s export control limitations, but still managed to handily beat analyst expectations, ex-items. Nvidia CEO Huang suggested US policy on exports was playing into the hands of China by weakening the influence of US tech firms, but noted that global demand for its AI infrastructure products remains incredibly strong with years of backlogs. Meanwhile PC and printer maker HP Inc fell short of expectations, citing macro uncertainties for a top and bottom line miss and a guidance cut. Among retailers, Macy’s had a solid quarter but cut its outlook on tariff concerns, also noting some moderation in consumer discretionary spending, though recent weeks have shown some improvement. Youth cloth Abercrombie & Fitch also lamented tariff impacts, but the already beaten down stock surged on better than expected Q1 results, thanks largely to its Hollister brand delivering 22% net sales growth. Another retailer, Gap, beat expectations and reported 2% same store sales growth, but shares were priced for perfection and slid 20% as management merely affirmed fiscal year guidance. Outside of earnings, US chip designers Synopsys and Cadence Design Systems were hit hard by a new Trump Administration order restricting sales into the China market. In deal news, Informatica confirmed an $8B deal to be acquired by Salesforce, and e.l.f. Beauty shares got a big boost after agreeing to pay up to $1B for Hailey Biebers ‘rhode’ brand.
MON 05-26
(CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Macklem: The extent of pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices, the speed of it — there is some uncertainty around that - NYT interview (update)
(CN) MOODY'S AFFIRMS CHINA'S A1/A+ RATINGS; KEEPS OUTLOOK NEGATIVE
(CN) CHINA PRES XI REPORTEDLY MULLS NEW MADE-IN-CHINA PLAN TO BOOST PRODUCTION OF HIGH-END TECH GOODS DESPITE US CALL TO REBALANCE – PRESS
(IT) Moody's affirmed Italy sovereign rating at Baa3 (one notch above junk); Outlook revised to Positive from Stable (update from May 23rd)
(TW) China reportedly increased its ability to launch a sudden attack on Taiwan with faster-paced air and operations, new artillery systems and more alert amphibious and air assault units, according to Taiwanese and US officials and experts - FT (update)
(US) PRES TRUMP: AGREES TO DELAY 50% TARIFF THREAT AGAINST EU TO JULY 9TH (PRIOR DEADLINE JUNE 1ST) - TRUTH SOCIAL POST [**Note: July 9th is original date of expiration of 90-days reciprocal tariff pause]
1211.HK Recent notable weakness in Chinese EV names being attributed to BYD cutting prices on 22 models with discounts up to 34% until the end of June
TUES 05-27
(FR) FRANCE MAY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: -0.1% V +0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.9%E (lowest since Feb 2021)
(IN) India June rainfall seen above average at 108% of average – press
(IN) Fox's Gasparino: After being delayed because of the India-Pakistan tensions, the trade framework with India and White House is said to be almost complete, my sources say. Remaining issues seem to be around Apple and its ability to move plants there from China as opposed to all of them in US. Unclear if any of this will derail an announcement in the coming days (update)
(JP) Japan MOF to hold meeting with JGB primary dealers on June 20th; MOF could consider 'trimming' issuance of super-long JGBs – Nikkei
(JP) JAPAN SELLS ¥500B VS. ¥500B INDICATED IN 40-YEAR JGB BONDS; YIELD AT LOWEST ACCEPTED PRICE: 3.1350% V 2.7100% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 2.21X V 2.92X PRIOR (weakest demand ratio since July 2024)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) CUTS OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) BY 25BPS TO 3.25%; AS EXPECTED; 1 dissenter voted to keep rates unchanged
(US) Fox's Gasparino: One issue the market isn’t digesting: Any adverse ruling against the Trump tariffs by the US Court of International Trade, which this week could rule on the legality of the trade agenda and at least put a hold on them until SCOTUS rules
(US) APR PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -6.3% V -7.8%E; DURABLES (EX TRANSPORTATION): 0.2% V 0.0%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Lowers Q2 GDP estimate from 2.4% to 2.2%
(US) MAY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 98.0 V 87.1E
(US) MAY DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: -15.3 V -23.1E
(US) TRUFLATION PROXY OF US AGGREGATED INFLATION INDEX TICKS HIGHER AGAIN TO 2.1% (HIGHEST SINCE MID-FEB) V 1.4% BEFORE LIBERATION DAY
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Issues Joint Statement with Argentina Health Minister following joint statement regarding each country’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO)
(US) Reportedly more US businesses with manufacturing operations on the mainland are warning they will be forced to raise prices in the coming weeks as inventories dwindle and shipping costs surge – Nikkei
INFA Confirms to be acquired by Salesforce at $25/shr in cash-debt; The transaction is not expected to disrupt Salesforce’s capital return program; Expects to achieve accretion on a non-GAAP operating margin, non-GAAP earnings per share, and free cash flow basis starting in the second year following the expected closing
PDD Reports Q1 $1.56 v $2.49e, Rev $13.2B v $14.2Be; Notes a slowdown in growth rate is expected as its business scales and challenges emerge
TTN Research Alert: "First Sale" Resurgence: The Corporate Response to Record-High U.S. Tariffs With Firms Trying to Outsmart Rising Duties
WEDS 05-28
(CN) Pres Trump said to order US chip designers to cease China sales – FT
(CN) Reportedly China's MOFCOM announcement on the export control policy of rare earths may indicate potential relaxation of exports to European chip companies - Chinese press
(DE) GERMANY MAY UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +34.0K V +12.0KE (above all estimates); CLAIMS RATE: 6.3% V 6.3%E
(EU) ECB Apr Consumer Expectation Survey: 1-year ahead CPI Expectations: 3.1% v 2.8%e
(EU) EU said to formulate plan to work with private investors to introduce privately managed help startup/scaleup fund for Europe - press
(EU) WEF founder Klaus Schwab: ECB's head Lagarde discussed leaving ECB early to head WEF – FT
(RU) Reportedly Russia Pres Putin's conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastwards and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia - press citing sources
(IR) US White House memo: Can do 'significant reduction' of Iranian petroleum - press cites US Federal Register
(KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) CUTS 7-DAY REPO RATE BY 25BPS TO 2.50%; AS EXPECTED
(US) Barclays analysts: U.S. Retail inventory risk on the horizon; Demand has been stable but the risk is ahead, as retail prices are starting to increase, with more expected in June/July, potentially leading to demand destruction; inventory dollars growing faster than sales dollars; Expect sales-to-inventory spreads to worsen starting in Q2 2025 as we focus on dollar inventory growth not units, with 4Q25 to bear the worst of the demand/supply imbalance
(US) US (Manhattan-based) Court of International Trade has blocked and declared illegal Pres Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs made under the IEEPA and imposed a nationwide injunction - US press
(US) FOMC APR MINUTES: PARTICIPANTS SAW UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS AS UNUSUALLY ELEVATED; PARTICIPANTS NOTED THAT DURABLE SHIFT IN THOSE CORRELATIONS OR A DIMINUTION OF PERCEIVED SAFE-HAVEN STATUS OF US ASSETS MAY HAVE LASTING IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMY
(US) MAY RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -9 V -9E
(US) US to pause exports of jet engine technology and chip software to China; Also includes certain chemicals; Comes in response to China’s mineral restrictions - NYT
(US) TREASURY $70B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.071% V 3.995% PRIOR, BTC 2.39 V 2.41 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER THE LAST 12
A Reports Q2 $1.31 v $1.26e, Rev $1.67B v $1.63Be
ANF Reports Q1 $1.59 v $1.36e, Rev $1.10B v $1.06Be; Cuts profit guidance, excludes other currently-paused tariffs
ANTHROPIC.IPO CEO Amodei: AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years - Axios interview
CRM Reports Q1 $2.58 v $2.54e, Rev $9.80B v $9.75Be; Raises guidance
DKS Reports Q1 $3.37 v $3.34e, Rev $3.17B v $3.12Be; Affirms outlook
HPQ Reports Q2 $0.71 v $0.80e, Rev $13.2B v $13.4Be; Cuts guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty; Guides Q3 well below consensus
INTU TTN Summary of 11:30ET Jefferies Public Technology Conference: Hours worked by employees are flat y/y; Maintaining a 15–20% durable growth trajectory for assisted tax, planning to build on breakthrough learnings (local ads, timing tweaks, high 80s NPS) throughout upcoming seasons.
HUAWEI.CN Reportedly planning to build a chip chemical company capable of rivaling global leaders, in a radical attempt to develop a fully self-sufficient domestic semiconductor supply chain - Nikkei (update)
M Guides Q2 $0.15-0.20 v $0.32e, Rev $4.65-4.75B v $4.72Be; Affirms FY25 Capex $800M v $882M y/y (prior: $800M) - earnings slides
M TTN Summary of 08:00ET Earnings Call: Momentum built in March and has continued quarter-to-date, pointing to improving comp trends in upcoming weeks; Pricing is working its way into the system slowly—with little to no pricing in Q1 and limited pricing so far in Q2
NVDA Reports Q1 $0.96* (adj ex-items) v $0.85e, Rev $44.1B v $42.7Be
NVDA TTN Summary of 17:00ET Earnings Call: Evaluating limited options to supply data center compute products under new US export controls; lost access to China’s AI accelerator market forecast to grow to $50B could materially benefit competitors.
MRNA HHS terminates $766M in awards for late-stage development of pre-pandemic influenza vaccines (avian flu vaccine) indicating project does not meet scientific or safety expectations for continued investment.; Phase 1/2 H5 avian flu vaccine study showed positive interim results and will explore alternatives for late-stage development and manufacturing of the H5 program
PYPL TTN Summary of 09:00ET Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference 2025: We are seeing very consistent spending trends from what we've reported on over the last couple of quarters; Medium-term branded checkout growth of 8–10%; long-term targets of 10%+ transaction margin dollar growth and 20%+ EPS growth, with a >$2 billion Venmo revenue goal by 2027
Tier1 analysts after call with world's leading container shipping expert Huajoo Tan of Linerlytica: US-China deal has driven a rapid restoration of container shipping sailings with ships now sailing full; Has seen an inflection in transpacific trade since the US-China deal which is expected to drive transpacific spot rates higher in June; Sees a sequential demand uptick likely in June-July 2025 on an early peak and ramping Chinese exports
VOLCARB.SE Exec: Pauses Volvo Cars facility in South Carolina, US, due to a supply chain issue related to a hardware component
VOLCARB.SE Exec: Pauses Volvo Cars facility in South Carolina, US, due to a supply chain issue related to a hardware component VOLCARB.SE Exec: Pauses Volvo Cars facility in South Carolina, US, due to a supply chain issue related to a hardware component
VWAGY Reportedly VW, BMW, and Mercedes in talks with Trump administration on tariffs; Targeting a deal by the start of July; Companies working with US on mechanism offset imports and imports - German press
THRS 05-29
(CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): Reiterates US to stop 'wrongdoing' on tariffs; US and China maintained communications since Geneva meeting; China talked to US over chip export control recently
(DE) Germany said to consider 10% digital tax on big tech companies - FT
(EU) WEF and Davos founder Klaus Schwab launches criminal complaint against his accusers – FT
(JP) JAPAN MAY TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.4%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 3.6% V 3.5%E (highest since Jan 2023)
(RU) Russia Foreign Ministry: Russia, as part of its peace proposals, wants legally binding mechanisms to guarantee that the Ukraine conflict will not resume
(US) APR PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -6.3% V -1.0%E; Y/Y: -3.5% V 2.7%E
(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: WEEK-TO-MAY 24TH TOTAL CARD SPENDING +0.2% V +1.0% ON AVERAGE IN APRIL; Initial read suggests that we could be getting a softer Memorial Day spending weekend this year likely due to colder weather.
(US) Fed’s Daly (non-voter for 2025): Really making progress on inflation but will not get to 2% inflation this year; Workers are worried about inflation; I see a general sense of cautious optimism
(US) Fed's Goolsbee (voter): If tariffs are avoided by a deal or otherwise, could return to situation where rates can come down - comm (US) Redfin: There are 33.7% more homesellers than homebuyers v just 6.5% delta y/y v two years ago, buyers outnumbered sellers; At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers by this large of a number or percentage ents at forum
(US) Q1 PRELIMINARY GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -0.2% V -0.3%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 1.2% V 1.7%E
(US) TREASURY $44B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 4.194% V 4.123% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.69 V 2.55 PRIOR AND 2.61 OVER THE LAST 12
(US) APPEALS COURT REINSTATES TRUMP TARIFFS UPON APPEAL, TEMPORARILY HALTING LAST NIGHT'S US COURT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE DECISION
(US) House introduces a bipartisan digital asset regulation bill
(US) House Speaker Johnson: House will codify cuts made by Dept of Govt Efficiency (DOGE); Oversight by DOGE will become permanent in govt - Fox News
(US) White House NEC Dir Hassett: Appeals court ruling on tariffs this afternoon gives us time to finish our trade deals - Fox News interview
(US) White House NEC Dir Hassett: Judges' decision on US tariffs will be overturned; Confident in success of appeal of tariff ruling; Three trade deals are basically done - Fox Business
(US) Fed Chair Powell met with Pres Trump today at White House; They discussed growth, employment and inflation; Didn't discuss expectations for monetary policy - Fed statement
(US) White House Press Sec Leavitt: Pres Trump told Fed Chair Powell he's making a mistake in not lowering interest rates
(ZA) SOUTH AFRICA CENTRAL BANK (SARB) CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 25BPS TO 7.25%; AS EXPECTED (corrected)
BA TTN Summary of 10:00ET Bernstein 41st Annual Strategic Decisions Conference 2025 CEO Ortberg: Confirms 'very quickly' approaching 737 Max output of 38/month; Want to hit 47/month by end of year
BOWL.UK Reports H1 EPS 12.0p v 13.6p y/y, Adj EBITDA £38.8M v £38.6M y/y, Rev £129.2M v £119.2M y/y; Notes driest spring in over a century; Continue to expect full-year EBITDA to fall within the range of current analyst forecasts
COST Reports Q3 $4.28 v $4.25e, Rev $63.2B v $63.1Be
FL Reports final Q1 -$0.07 v -$0.05e, Rev $1.79B v $1.83Be
GAP Reports Q1 $0.51 v $0.44e, Rev $3.46B v $3.42Be
KSS Reports Q1 -$0.13 v -$0.22e, Rev $3.23B v $3.18Be
LMND Co-Founder: In under 48 hours, 100% of the Lemonade engineering team had switched to agentic coding.
MRVL Reports Q1 $0.62 v $0.61e, Rev $1.90B v $1.88Be
SMR US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approves Nuscale's 77 megawatt small nuclear reactor design
ZS Reports Q3 $0.84 v $0.75e, Rev $678M v $666Me
FRI 05-30
(CN) US-China trade truce said to risk breaking down over access to rare earths - WSJ
(CN) US said planning wider sanctions on Chinese tech companies with inclusion of Chinese subsidiaries - press
(JP) Japan Econ Min Akazawa met with US Treasury Sec Bessent and Commerce Sec Lutnick 'strongly requested' US to rethink its tariff measures; Made progress in trade talks and agreed to accelerate talks - Japan govt statement
OPEC+ may discuss production hike this weekend that's larger than the ~411K bpd [size of increase that's been recently cited] – press
(US) APR PCE PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.2%E; Core PCE Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5%e
(US) APR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.8% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.2% V 0.2%E
(DE) GERMANY MAY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1%E
(ES) SPAIN MAY PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.9% V 2.1%E
(CA) CANADA MAR GDP M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 1.6%E
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Raises Q2 GDP estimate from 2.2% to 3.8%
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending May 24th: 488.7K total units, +0.7% y/y
(EU) ECB reportedly to plan on-site probes for banks over private market exposures – press
(US) Dept of Interior implements emergency permitting to accelerate geothermal energy development
2330.TW Said to consider building an advanced chip plant in UAE; Has discussed the possible fab with Trump administration - press