Federal Reserve officials are out in force in the coming week, including an appearance by Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday at the Treasury Market Conference. With market pricing suggesting another close call between a 25- and 50-bp interest-rate cut in November, traders will be parsing comments closely as they look to firm up their bets. Core PCE - the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation - should also help shape expectations.
The Swiss National Bank and Riksbank are expected to follow in the Fed’s footsteps and lower their respective policy rates, albeit with smaller 25-bp reductions. The Reserve Bank of Australia is seen on hold.
We’ll get some early indications of how inflation behaved in the euro-area and Japan this month with CPI data due from France, Spain and Tokyo. A flurry of PMI reports on Monday will add to the debate around the prospects for global growth. Here’s everything we’ll be watching.
Monday, Sept. 23
- Euro area manufacturing/service PMI P
- UK manufacturing/service PMI P
- ECB’s Cipollone
- US Chicago Fed national activity index and manufacturing/service PMI P
- Fed’s Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari
Tuesday, Sept. 24
- RBA interest rate decision
- German IFO survey
- ECB’s Nagel and Muller
- Hungary central bank interest rate decision
- US FHFA house price index and consumer confidence
- US 2-year note auction
- Mexico CPI
- OPEC world oil outlook
Wednesday, Sept. 25
- China 1-year medium term lending operation
- Australia CPI
- Riksbank interest rate decision
- US new home sales
- US 5-year note auction
- Brazil IBGE inflation
- OECD interim economic outlook
Thursday, Sept. 26
- RBA financial stability review
- SNB interest rate decision
- Euro area M3 money supply
- Germany GFK consumer confidence
- Lagarde speaks as ESRB president
- US GDP Q2 T, durable goods orders, jobless claims and pending home sales
- Fed’s Powell, Barr, Williams, Collins, Kugler and Kashkari
- US 7-year note auction
- Mexico central bank interest rate decision
- Brazil central bank quarterly inflation report
Friday, Sept. 27
- China industrial profits
- Tokyo CPI
- Euro area consumer confidence
- German unemployment rate
- France and Spain CPI P
- ECB’s Lane, Rehn, Nagel and Cipollone
- ECB consumer expectations survey
- US personal income, personal spending, core PCE and U. of Michigan sentiment
- Canada GDP
- Fed’s Collins and Kugler
- Brazil FGV inflation and unemployment rate