Christmas week trade was mostly muted with the focus remaining on rising interest rates and what that portends for 2025. US Treasury yields held just below the highs of April 2024 while the US dollar index stayed at or near 2-year highs. The Japanese 10-year yield rose above 1% for the first time in more than a decade following Japanese inflation readings. US data releases were sparse but the November durable goods continued to paint a resilient picture for the US economy underpinning the upward bias on rates. Core capital goods orders were substantially stronger than anticipated with the +0.7% jump the strongest monthly performance since the summer of 2023, while shipments were up 0.5% for the biggest monthly gain since January. Also, December Richmond Fed data remained in contractionary territory, but encouragingly included improving new orders and backlogs. Strength in select mega-cap technology shares continued to mask lackluster breadth amid expectedly thin trading conditions. Apple was the posterchild, continuing its ascent towards a $4.0T market cap on no significant news before profit taking resulted in a pullback of Mag-7 names on Friday. For the week, the S&P gained 0.7%, the DJIA was up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq added 0.8%.
MON 12-23
(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) DEC MINUTES: if the future flow of data continued to evolve in line with, or weaker than, their expectations, it would further increase their confidence that inflation was declining sustainably towards target
(UK) Q3 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 0.0% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.0%E
(US) NOV NEW HOME SALES: 664K V 670KE
(US) NOV PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -1.1% V -0.3%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): -0.1% V +0.3%E
TUES 12-24
(CN) Further press speculation that China may have been buying more gold in recent months than its official reserve figures suggest - financial press
(US) NOV PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -1.1% V -0.3%E; DURABLES (EX-TRANSPORTATION): -0.1% V +0.3%E
(US) DEC RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: -10 V -10E
(US) TREASURY $70B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.478% V 4.197% PRIOR, BTC 2.40 V 2.43 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER THE LAST 12
AAL FAA grounds all American Airline flights nationwide after experiencing technical issues
WEDS 12-25
Christmas Day
THRS 12-26
(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) SUMMARY OF OPINIONS FOR DEC: Reiterates if outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized, the Bank will adjust the degree of monetary accommodation accordingly.
(JP) JAPAN DEC TOKYO CPI Y/Y: 3.0% V 2.9%E; CPI (EX-FRESH FOOD) Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.5%E (highest Headline since Oct 2023 of 3.3% and highest Core since Aug of 2.4%)
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 219K V 223KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.91M V 1.89ME
(US) TREASURY $44B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 4.532% V 4.183% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.76 V 2.71 PRIOR AND 2.56 OVER THE LAST 12
FRI 12-27
(US) DOE CRUDE: -4.2M V -1ME; GASOLINE: +1.6M V -1ME; DISTILLATE: -1.7M V +0.5ME
(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -93BCF VS. -97 BCF TO -99 BCF INDICATED RANGE
(US) Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast forecasting Dec US CPI Y/Y to accelerate again to 2.9% from 2.7% and Dec US CPI M/M to come at 0.4%; Truflation proxy of US aggregated Inflation Index at 2.9% v 3.0% w/w, which was near highest since early autumn 2023
(US) Tier1 week-to-Dec 26th US Truckload Demand Indicator at 59.1 v 56.5 prior (highest level since April 2022; above 54 avg freight recession level); Undisclosed Consumer Products Shipper expects a possible East Coast Port strike (Jan 15 contract expiration) to raise spot rates and constrain trucking capacity.
(US) Redfin: Active listings climbed 12% y/y during the four weeks ending December 22 (the smallest increase since March)
CDC says H5N1 bird flu sample shows mutations that may help the virus bind to cells in the upper respiratory tracts of people; The mutations likely developed post-infection - StatNews
6857.JP CEO: Watching for any sign of slower spending on AI by big US tech groups; Any slowdown in the data centre buildout is going to have big reverberations in the supply chain; Demand for AI smartphones was “kind of slow” but could take off rapidly; Everyone is holding their breath, waiting for the killer app with the AI handsets - FT
HLAG.DE Announces two surcharges ahead of a potential strike by unionized longshore workers at U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports; effective Jan 20th [**Note: in Oct 2024, ILA and USMX reached a tentative agreement on wages, and extended the Master Contract until Jan 15, 2025]