Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 gained 0.8% on Wednesday in a busy news day, wrapping up a negative month and a positive third quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed with a 1.2% gain, the Russell 2000 underperformed with a 0.2% gain, and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) performed comparably to the benchmark index.
The session opened modestly higher, as the futures market shook off any residential weakness that followed the first presidential debate. Cyclical sectors were leaders throughout the morning and early afternoon, largely due to better-than-expected economic data and renewed stimulus optimism.
The stimulus optimism was stirred by hopeful-sounding commentary from House Speaker Pelosi, White House Chief of Staff Meadows, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, but the market later got upset on news that Senate Majority Leader McConnell said both sides remain far apart. Ms. Pelosi and Mr. Mnuchin met for 90 minutes but did not agree to a deal.
In about one hour of trading, the S&P 500 cut its gain to 0.2% from 1.7% with the industrials (-0.3%) and energy (-0.2%) sectors slipping into negative territory. Buyers stepped in, though, and helped the S&P 500 close above its 50-day moving average (3357), which was an important observation for traders.
The health care (+1.7%), consumer staples (+1.2%), financials (+1.2%), and information technology (+0.9%) sectors were among today's biggest winners.
Regarding today's data, the ADP Employment Change Report for September, the Chicago PMI for September, and the Pending Home Sales report for August each came in stronger than expected. While not typically market-moving events by themselves, the batch of data did finally contribute to some movement in U.S. Treasuries (to the downside).
The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.13%, and the 10-yr yield increased three basis points to 0.68%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.1% to 93.84. WTI crude futures rose 2.6%, or $1.01, to $40.21/bbl.
In key corporate news, Walt Disney (DIS 124.13, -1.27, -1.0%) announced plans to lay off 28,000 employees due to the coronavirus still negatively impacting its business. Micron (MU 46.96, -3.75, -7.4%) issued downside EPS guidance for its fiscal first quarter.
Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:
- The third estimate for Q2 GDP produced a slight upward revision to -31.4% q/q annualized (consensus -31.7%) from the second estimate of -31.7%. The GDP Price Deflator was also revised higher to -1.8% (consensus -2.0%) from -2.0%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it won't matter to the market given its dated nature, but it still matters in the sense that, despite the slight revision, the second quarter of 2020 marked the biggest downturn for the U.S. economy on record.
- The ADP Employment Change report for September estimated 749,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls (consensus 600,000). The August reading was revised higher to 481,000 from 428,000.
- The Chicago PMI for September surged above expectations to 62.4% (consensus 53.0%) from 51.2% in August.
- Pending home sales jumped 8.8% in August (consensus 3.2%) following a 5.9% increase in July.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications declined 4.8% following a 6.8% increase in the prior week.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the ISM Manufacturing Index for September, the Personal Income and Spending report for August, the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, and Construction Spending for August on Thursday.
- Nasdaq Composite +24.5% YTD
- S&P 500 +4.1% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.7% YTD
- Russell 2000 -9.6% YTD