Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 (+0.7%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.7%) set intraday and closing record highs on Friday, as investors found reasons to look past the huge payrolls miss in the April employment report. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) and Russell 2000 (+1.4%) outperformed.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 266,000 in April, which was well below the Briefing.com consensus of 1,000,000 and the downward revision for March. In addition, the unemployment rate was 6.1% (consensus 5.8%), versus 6.0% in March, and average hourly earnings increased 0.7% (consensus -0.1%).
After an initial shock, market participants interpreted the report to suggest at least two things: 1) the Fed will feel assured that it's still not time to start talking about tapering asset purchases, and 2) it was a temporary blip in the economic recovery as the extended unemployment benefits may have provided a disincentive for people to return to work.
Another narrative put forth by the Biden administration and some Democratic lawmakers was that the report painted the case for passing the proposed government spending plans. The reaction in the market made it clear that both growth and value investors had an interpretation they liked.
Every sector in the S&P 500 closed higher, paced by the energy (+1.9%), real estate (+1.2%), industrials (+1.1%), materials (+0.9%), and information technology (+0.8%) sectors. The consumer staples sector (+0.01%) underperformed and closed a hair above its flat line.
Besides the leadership from the cyclical stocks, growth concerns were dismissed by higher copper prices ($4.75/lb, +0.14, +3.2%) and a turnaround in the 10-yr yield, which went from 1.48% in the wake of the employment report to 1.58%, or two basis points above Thursday's settlement.
Growth-stock investors may have also used the headline jobs miss as a better reason (compared to yesterday's Merkel vaccine news) to buy the dip in the information technology sector and other beaten-down spaces. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARK 109.72, +1.38, +1.3%) increased 1.3% but ended the week down 9%.
The 2-yr yield decreased one basis point to 0.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index decreased 0.8% to 90.22. WTI crude futures increased 0.4%, or $0.25, to $64.94/bbl.
Reviewing Friday's economic data:
- The April employment report was surprisingly weak, with just 266,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls (consensus 1,000,000) and downward revisions to March. April unemployment rate was 6.1% (consensus 5.8%), versus 6.0% in March. April average hourly earnings increased 0.7% (Bconsensus -0.1%) versus a 0.1% decrease in March.
- The key takeaway from the report is that net job gains were negative, excluding the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 331,000 jobs. It is a stunning slowdown from March and has ignited the argument that extended unemployment benefits have created a disincentive to look for work. In turn, it has also ignited the idea that the market has gotten ahead of itself with its recovery/reopening enthusiasm.
- Consumer credit increased by $25.8 bln in March after increasing a downwardly revised $26.2 bln (from $27.6 bln) in February.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was the second straight month that the expansion in consumer credit exceeded $25 billion, underscoring the improved lending demand in a recovering economy.
- Wholesale inventories increased 1.3% m/m in March (consensus 1.4%) following an upwardly revised 1.0% increase (from +0.6%) in February.
Investors will not receive any notable economic data on Monday.
- Russell 2000 +15.0% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.6% YTD
- S&P 500 +12.7% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +6.7% YTD