Closing Market Summary: Stocks Post Modest Gains With ECB On Tap
The major averages finished the Wednesday session on a modestly higher note with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) in the lead. Like the Nasdaq, the Russell 2000 (+0.4%) also outperformed the S&P 500 (+0.2%), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) lagged throughout the session.
For the third day in a row, the stock market maintained a narrow range amid spotty sector leadership. Trading volume remained light with just 579 million shares changing hands at the NYSE versus a long-term average of 700 million.
In all likelihood, the quiet environment was a reflection of a wait-and-see approach that has been employed by investors ahead of tomorrow's policy decision from the European Central Bank and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be released on Friday at 8:30 ET (consensus 220K).
Tomorrow's ECB announcement has the potential to stir things up a bit as investors are anticipating some sort of action from the central bank. While the general consensus is eyeing an easing announcement, it remains unclear what type of stimulus could be introduced by President Mario Draghi tomorrow. Expectations range from a deposit rate cut to an introduction of a QE-style purchasing program, but ECB watchers are well aware that Mr. Draghi's favorite policy tool has been the threat of easing, rather than actual easing for quite some time now. The ECB decision will cross the wires at 7:45 ET with the press conference set to follow at 8:30 ET.
However, before moving into tomorrow, we would like to take a quick look at today's session, which was anything but thrilling. Seven of ten sectors finished in the green with the three largest cyclical groups—consumer discretionary (+0.4%), financials (+0.3%), and technology (+0.3%)—in the lead.
The top performer of the bunch—consumer discretionary—rallied on the back of retailers with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 84.44, +0.64) advancing 0.8%, which pulled it back into the green for the quarter. The retail ETF swung to a quarter-to-date gain of 0.2%, but remained lower by 4.2% year-to-date.
Elsewhere, the financial sector, which has been the top performer of the week, added 0.3% with M&A activity contributing to the relative strength. Specifically, Protective Life (PL 69.36, +10.64) surged 18.1% after agreeing to be acquired by Japan's Dai-ichi Life for $70/share, representing a 19.2% premium to yesterday's closing price.
Also of note, the tech space received significant support from its largest component. Shares of Apple (AAPL 644.82, +7.28) spiked 1.1% on the record date for the upcoming 7:1 stock split. Starting Monday, the largest tech company by market cap will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis.
In addition to boosting the tech sector, Apple contributed to the relative strength of the Nasdaq Composite. However, the Nasdaq also drew strength from biotechnology as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 243.47, +2.55) regained its 100-day moving average, climbing 1.0%. The health care sector, meanwhile, ended in line with the S&P 500.
On the downside, energy (-0.1%), industrials (-0.1%), and telecom services (-0.3%) posted slim losses.
Treasuries ended flat after erasing their overnight gains. The 10-yr yield settled at 2.60%.
Economic data was plentiful and mostly disappointing:Tomorrow, Challenger Job Cuts for May will be reported at 7:30 ET, while weekly Initial Claims (consensus 310,000) will be released at 8:30 ET.
- According to the ADP National Employment Report, employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose by 179K in May. That was below the increase of 200K expected by the consensus. Also of note, the April reading was revised down to 215,000 from 220,000.
- The trade deficit in April widened appreciably to $47.20 billion from an upwardly revised $44.20 billion (from -$40.40 billion) in March. The April number was worse than the consensus estimate of -$41.30 billion and was the biggest deficit since March 2012. This will be a negative component for Q2 GDP as the real trade deficit in April was 9.2% greater than the first quarter average.
- First quarter productivity was revised lower to -3.2% (consensus -2.5%) from -1.7%. That was the largest decrease in productivity since the first quarter of 2008. Hours worked increased 2.2% and output decreased 1.1%. Unit labor costs, in turn, were revised up to 5.7% (consensus 4.8%) from 4.2% due to the decline in productivity and the 2.3% increase in hourly compensation.
- The ISM Services report for May checked in at 56.3, which was above the consensus estimate of 55.5 and marked the highest reading for the survey since August 2013. The main takeaway was that the non-manufacturing sector continues to operate comfortably in a state of expansion as May 2014 marked the 52nd consecutive month with a reading above 50.0.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 3.1% to follow last week's down tick of 1.2%.
- S&P 500 +4.3% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.0% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +1.8% YTD
- Russell 2000 -2.8% YTD