Closing Stock Market SummaryThe stock market retreat continued this session, carrying over yesterday's downside momentum. Today's sell-off saw the S&P 500 get rejected at the 4,000 level and give back all the post-Powell speech gains.
Concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, along with the market's technical deterioration, were the main driving factors for the continued pullback in equities.
Price action in the Treasury market reflected a belief that inflation is going to come down further, but stocks didn't rally off that price action due to the understanding that the improvement in inflation is apt to be catalyzed by a significant slowdown in economic activity. The 10-yr note yield, which is more sensitive to inflation, fell nine basis points to 3.51%.
A material slowdown in growth, if not an actual recession that is triggered by the Fed's ongoing rate hikes, has piqued concerns that 2023 earnings estimates are too high.
Cautious-sounding remarks about consumers and/or the economic outlook from the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 131.59, +0.22, +0.2%), Walmart (WMT 149.89, -1.76, -1.2%), and Union Pacific (UNP 211.14, +0.08, +0.04%) in CNBC interviews this morning contributed to the market's slowdown worries.
Today's sell off was orderly in nature, but fairly broad based. Declining issues outpaced advancing issues by a greater than 2-to-1 margin at both the NYSE and the Nasdaq.
Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors suffered losses today that ranged from 0.7% (consumer staples) to 2.7% (energy). Utilities (+0.7%), meanwhile, was the lone sector in positive territory.
Other notable laggards among the sectors included communication services (-2.6%), information technology (-2.1%), and consumer discretionary (-1.6%), which felt the pressure of their underperforming mega cap components. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) closed down 2.1%.
Growth stocks were another spot of notable weakness today, feeling the added pinch perhaps of tax-loss selling efforts. The Russell 3000 Growth Index fell 1.8% versus a 1.2% loss in the Russell 3000 Value Index.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -7.6% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -12.7% YTD
- Russell 2000: -19.3% YTD
- S&P 500: -17.3% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -29.6% YTD
Today's economic data was limited to the October Trade Balance, which showed that the deficit widened in October to $78.2 billion (consensus -$77.2 billion) from a downwardly revised $74.1 billion (from -$73.3 billion) in September. That was the result of exports being $1.9 billion less than September exports and imports being $2.2 billion more than September imports.
The key takeaway from the report is that the pickup in imports speaks to a relatively strong U.S. economy in October versus other economies.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 7:00 a.m. ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index (prior -0.8%)
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Revised Q3 Productivity ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%) and Unit Labor Costs (Bconsensus 3.5%; prior 3.5%)
- 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -12.58 million barrels)
- 3:00 p.m. ET: October Consumer Credit ( consensus $26.5 billion; prior $25.0 billion)