From: Laurent Chekroun (MAKOR CAPITAL MARKET) At: 03/15/26 08:26:17 UTC+1:00
Subject: >>> THE GREAT DISPLACEMENT — AI as Labour SubstitutionTHE GREAT DISPLACEMENT — AI as Labour Substitution
Laurent Chekroun — 15 March 2026
The investment podcast insight that prompted this note: AI revenue growth at OpenAI and Anthropic is not a proxy for rising IT budgets. It is a proxy for corporate labour cost reduction.
OpenAI: $25B annualised run rate (Feb 2026). Anthropic: $19B ARR (Mar 2026), growing 10x per year. Neither figure is explained by incremental IT spend — global IT budgets are growing at +1.8% in real terms. The differential is being funded by internal reallocation, including from headcount.
Key data points in the note:
— MIT (Nov 2025): AI already cost-competitive with 11.7% of the US workforce — $1.2 trillion in addressable wage value
— 55,000 US layoffs directly attributed to AI in 2025 (Challenger, Gray & Christmas), 12x the 2023 figure
— S&P 500 net margins at 13.2% — highest since 2009, with GS estimating +4pp potential over 10 years from AI productivity
— Klarna case study: 853 FTE-equivalents replaced — then partially reversed after service quality fell. The cautionary tale is in the note.
The note covers: revenue data (verified, ARR vs booked revenue distinction); the IT budget argument examined and corrected; sector-by-sector productivity analysis; and a full trades section — long ideas (GS, MSFT, AVGO, financial services basket, power infrastructure), short ideas (BPO, legacy EdTech), and macro hedges (white-collar unemployment tail, capex bubble puts, BLS straddles).
Phase 1 of the AI trade was infrastructure. Phase 2 belongs to the productivity beneficiaries.
Note attached. Happy to discuss.
Laurent Chekroun
15 March 2026