Tesla misses by $0.55, beats on revs; reaffirms 1H production; Model 3 on track for initial production in July (311.02 -7.87)
- Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $1.33 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.55 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($0.78); revenues rose 135.1% year/year to $2.7 bln vs the $2.61 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
- Preannuonced Q1 deliveries
- OUTLOOK: Based on our current order and production rates, our first half outlook remains unchanged at 47,000 to 50,000 deliveries, which represents 61% to 71% annual vehicle delivery growth. Moving past Q2, particularly as Model 3 becomes available, one of our challenges will be to eliminate any misperception about the differences between Model S and Model 3. We have seen a belief among some that Model 3 is the newest and more advanced generation of Model S. This is not correct. Model S will always have more range, more acceleration, more power, more passenger cargo room, more displays (two), and more customization choices, and Model S, X and 3 will all have equivalent Autopilot functionality. We will continue to clearly communicate these distinctions to avoid any misperceptions.
- We will provide guidance on vehicle deliveries for the second half of this year after we have started Model 3 production in July. Given that we will be ramping Model 3 production so quickly, as we've noted before, even a couple-week shift in timing can have a meaningful impact on total deliveries. Our energy generation and storage business is positioned for accelerating growth later this year, and we continue to be confident about achieving the cost synergies and cash generation targets established when we acquired SolarCity.
- Non-GAAP Automotive gross margin should decline by about 250 basis points in Q2 due to the absence of the one-time benefit of Autopilot software revenue recognized in Q1 and fluctuations in product mix. At the same time, we expect that Model S and Model X vehicle costs should continue to decline each quarter based on the execution of our roadmap to improve manufacturing efficiencies. We expect Q2 GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses to be flat to slightly up from Q1, including expenses associated with the final stages of Model 3 development and growth in our customer support infrastructure. Q2 interest expense will reflect the full quarter of impact for the convertible securities we issued in Q1, leading to about $115 million of interest expense per quarter. We expect that year-to-date capital expenditures will be slightly over $2 billion by the time we start Model 3 production. We expect additional investments through the remainder of the year as we increase automation and add production capacity.
- Energy: 150 MW of solar energy generation deployed in Q1 60 MWh of energy storage installed in Q1 Rather than prioritizing the growth of MW of solar deployed at any cost, we are selectively deploying projects that have higher margin and generate cash up front. Consequently, solar energy generation deployments in Q1 2017 declined year-over-year, but had better financial results. Furthermore, the portion of residential customers who elected to purchase rather than lease a solar system grew to 31% of deployments in Q1, up from 9% a year ago, improving the cash generation of this business.
- We plan to start pilot manufacturing of Solar Roof tiles in Q2 at our Fremont facility. Shortly thereafter, production will transition to Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo, New York.
Model 3 vehicle development is nearly complete as we approach the start of production. Release Candidate vehicles, built using production-intent tooling and processes, are being tested to assess fit and finish, to support vehicle software development and to ensure a smooth and predictable homologation process. Road testing is also underway to refine driving dynamics and ensure vehicle durability. Simultaneously, preparations at our production facilities are on track to support the ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2017, and to 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.