>>> Technical Research – S&P 500 Index (1,882 last) – taking 4.5% profit on

Sep 29, 2015 

 

Technical Research – S&P 500 Index (1,882 last) – taking 4.5% profit on short position, re-sell higher (portfolio up 43.25% in 2015)

 

Strategy: Short 1 unit from 1,978 taking profit at 1,889 (future reference 1880)

 

Daily chart:

 

·The Index is nearing the August low at 1,867 and while above it a bounce is likely.

 

·Given the oversold conditions and while above 1,867 one should expect a bounce towards the resistance level at 1,952. A sustain move above it would target 2,020.

 

·If we do get a break lower than 1,820 becomes the ideal target. This level is the Low from Sep14 and should provide good support. 

 

Support: 1,867 & 1,820                     Resistance: 1,952 & 2,020 

 

 

Weekly chart

 

·The Index broke below the trend line connecting all the lows from October 2011, the break down level is
2,015-2,030 and as long as below this level further weakness is likely

 

·The trend line connecting the lows from March 2009 stands at 1,720 which is also were the 200 week moving average stands 

 

Support: 1,867, 1,820 & 1,710-30                       Resistance: 1,929 (this week high) & 2,020 

 

 

Monthly chart

 

·The Index had a first monthly close below the 20 month moving average in August this year. This moving average has been a good indicator in historical terms. Since 1998 there has been only one false break in August 2011, back then the Index did fall 22% from high to low within 2 month but has recovered quickly just after 2 month. In the other occasions this 20 month moving average has been a great indicator and moves above or below it has been a leading guide for month to come. 

 

 

  

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