From: Laurent Chekroun (MAKOR CAPITAL MARKET) At: 05/16/26 09:38:26 UTC+2:00
Subject: >>> STOCK ANALYSIS - Smart Money 13F × Q1 2026 EarningsSTOCK ANALYSIS
Smart Money 13F × Q1 2026 Earnings | May 16, 2026
GOOG/GOOGL — Q1 EPS $5.11 vs $2.63 BEAT +$2.48 | Rev +21.8% YoY Buffett tripled GOOGL (17.85M→54.25M), added new GOOG. Third Point, Lone Pine, Himalaya all in. Altimeter exited — poorly timed. Signal: STRONG BUY. Consensus validated.
META — Q1 EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 BEAT +$3.77 | Rev +33.1% YoY Tiger Global, Third Point, Altimeter all added. ValueAct trimmed modestly. One of the cleanest buy-and-beat stories of the quarter. Signal: STRONG BUY. Validated.
AMZN — Q1 EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 BEAT +$1.15 | Rev +16.6% YoY Ackman added aggressively (9.61M→11.45M). Tiger Global held 10M. Lone Pine exited — looks like an error. Signal: BUY. Ackman & Tiger validated.
NVDA — Last Q EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 BEAT +$0.08 | Rev +73.2% YoY Altimeter (8.1M→9.34M), Tiger (11M→12M), Soros added. Third Point near-fully exited (2.95M→190K). Signal: BUY with split. Buyers look more right.
AVGO — Last Q EPS $2.05 vs $2.03 BEAT +$0.02 | Rev +29.5% YoY Tiger, Third Point, Druckenmiller, Discovery all initiated. Lone Pine exited — lone dissenter. Signal: BUY. Broad institutional consensus.
TSM — Q1 EPS $3.49 vs $3.30 BEAT +$0.19 | Rev +40.6% YoY Tiger added (3.7M→5.6M), Altimeter added. Lone Pine cut heavily (3.05M→1.39M). Signal: BUY. Tiger & Altimeter validated vs Lone Pine.
MSFT — Q3 FY26 EPS $4.27 vs $4.05 BEAT +$0.22 | Rev +18.3% YoY Gates exited (7.69M). Lone Pine, Third Point, Tiger all sold. Ackman bought new 5.65M — stark contrarian. Stock +3% today on CNBC report. Signal: DIVERGENCE. Ackman contrarian buy, watch closely.
UBER — Q1 EPS $0.72 vs $0.69 BEAT +$0.03 | Rev slight miss | +14.5% YoY Altimeter added sharply (+42%, 5.59M→7.97M). Signal: BUY. Altimeter conviction validated on EPS.
APP — Q1 EPS $3.56 vs $3.44 BEAT +$0.12 | Rev +58.9% YoY Lone Pine near-doubled (0.78M→1.46M). Tiger trimmed. Signal: STRONG BUY. Lone Pine's best call of the quarter.
INTC — Q1 EPS $0.29 vs $0.02 MASSIVE BEAT +$0.27 | Rev +7.4% YoY Tiger (new 1.6M), Druckenmiller (new 411K) both initiated simultaneously. Signal: TURNAROUND BUY. Simultaneous elite initiation + huge beat.
DAL — Q1 EPS $0.64 vs $0.58 BEAT +$0.06 | Rev +9.4% YoY Buffett new position 39.81M shares — extraordinary given his historical airline aversion. Druckenmiller exited before Buffett bought. Signal: BUY (Buffett). Druckenmiller wrong on timing.
NCLH — Q1 EPS $0.23 vs $0.14 BEAT +$0.09 | Rev +9.6% YoY Elliott new 13.19M shares. Signal: BUY. Elliott bought ahead of a clean beat.
HPE — Q1 EPS $0.65 vs $0.59 BEAT +$0.06 | Rev +18.4% YoY Elliott added aggressively (18.63M→27.42M). Signal: BUY. Elliott validated.
FISV — Q1 EPS $1.79 vs $1.57 BEAT +$0.22 | Rev flat YoY Jana Partners doubled (2.25M→4.44M). Signal: BUY. Jana's best call — big beat.
KMX — Fiscal Q4 EPS $0.34 vs $0.20 BEAT +$0.14 | Rev -1% YoY Starboard new 6.2M. Signal: ACTIVIST BUY. EPS beat validates entry point.
CPNG — Q1 EPS -$0.15 vs -$0.09 MISS -$0.06 | Rev +7.5% YoY (decelerating) Altimeter exited 15.68M, Lone Pine exited, Druckenmiller cut 6.8M→2.7M. Tiger Global massively added (26.3M→34.6M). Signal: CONTESTED. Sellers validated by miss. Tiger is the contrarian — biggest single divergence of the season.
RIG — Q1 EPS -$0.03 vs $0.08 MISS -$0.11 | Rev +19.3% YoY Elliott new 15.63M. Oil at $105/bbl today. Signal: SPECULATIVE. Revenue beats; EPS misses. Elliott playing offshore drilling cycle + oil price surge.
TRIP — Q1 EPS -$0.11 vs -$0.07 MISS -$0.04 | Rev -4.0% YoY Starboard added (9.6M→10.8M), Einhorn new 1.56M. Soros exited. Signal: ACTIVIST ONLY. Soros right to exit. Starboard & Einhorn playing restructuring/M&A.
LUV — Q1 EPS $0.45 vs $0.47 MISS -$0.02 | Rev +12.8% YoY Elliott cut massively (-41%, 51.13M→30.35M). Signal: EXIT. Elliott right — activist campaign stalling, miss confirms.
TOST — Q1 EPS $0.20 vs $0.27 MISS -$0.07 | Rev +21.9% YoY ValueAct near-doubled (8.02M→12.9M). Signal: ACTIVIST LONG-TERM. EPS miss near-term headwind but rev growth solid. ValueAct playing operational improvement.
PTON — Q1 EPS $0.06 vs $0.08 MISS -$0.02 | Rev +1.1% YoY Einhorn added aggressively (0.25M→10.11M, +40x). Signal: HIGH RISK TURNAROUND. Einhorn making a very large bet on recovery.
WULF — Q1 EPS -$1.01 vs -$0.20 MASSIVE MISS -$0.81 | Rev -1.1% YoY Lone Pine new 19.92M (biggest new position). Signal: PURE SPECULATION. Power assets & crypto infrastructure thesis — not an earnings story.
HLT — Q1 EPS $2.01 vs $1.98 BEAT +$0.03 | Rev +9.0% YoY Ackman exited 3.03M. Lone Pine added modestly. Signal: MIXED. Ackman sold a beater to rotate into MSFT.
ARM — Q1 EPS $0.60 vs $0.58 BEAT +$0.02 | Rev +20.1% YoY Altimeter new 1.72M. Signal: BUY. Clean beat, AI chip royalty story.
SNOW — FY Q4 EPS $0.32 vs $0.27 BEAT +$0.05 | Rev +30.1% YoY Altimeter reduced. Tiger maintained. Signal: HOLD. Beat but growth decelerating.
Q1 2026 13F Season Rankings | May 16, 2026
| Rank | Fund | Manager | Grade | Best Call | Worst Call |
| 🥇 1 | Berkshire Hathaway | Warren Buffett | A+ | GOOGL (3x, +$2.48 beat) | — |
| 🥇 2 | Jana Partners | Barry Rosenstein | A | FISV (doubled, +$0.22 beat) | Minor trim on MKL |
| 🥈 3 | Altimeter Capital | Brad Gerstner | A- | UBER +42%, ARM new (both beat) | CPNG exit timing was early vs Tiger |
| 🥈 4 | Elliott Management | Paul Singer | A- | NCLH beat, HPE beat, LUV exit right | RIG EPS miss |
| 🥈 5 | Tiger Global | Chase Coleman | B+ | NVDA, TSM, META all adds + beat | CPNG add into deteriorating earnings |
| 🏅 6 | Lone Pine Capital | Stephen Mandel | B | APP near-doubled (huge beat) | WULF massive miss, AMZN exit, TSM cut |
| 🏅 7 | Third Point | Dan Loeb | B | META new (beat), GOOGL new (beat) | NVDA near-exit (AI theme intact) |
| 🏅 8 | Duquesne F.O. | Stan Druckenmiller | B | INTC new (huge beat) | DAL exit before Buffett's giant buy |
| 🏅 9 | Himalaya Capital | Li Lu | B | GOOGL/GOOG maintained (beat) | BAC cut big (3.0M from 10.4M) |
| ⚠️ 10 | Pershing Square | Bill Ackman | B- | AMZN add (huge beat) | MSFT — contrarian, verdict pending; sold HLT (a beater) |
| ⚠️ 11 | Greenlight Capital | David Einhorn | C+ | PTON (big bet, turnaround) | TRIP (miss, declining rev) |
| ⚠️ 12 | ValueAct Capital | Ubben & Singer | C+ | TOST (long-term activist) | TOST EPS miss near-term; DIS cut |
| ⚠️ 13 | Starboard Value | Jeffrey Smith | C | KMX beat, TRIP activist | TRIP miss/decline |
| ⚠️ 14 | Trian Fund | Nelson Peltz | C | Steady WEN/JHG holdings | No major new conviction bets |
| ❓ 15 | Soros Fund | George Soros | Incomplete | Correctly exited TRIP before miss | EVGO add (speculative) |
Bottom line: Buffett and Jana were the sharpest this quarter — both bought into stocks that subsequently delivered strong beats. Altimeter and Elliott showed disciplined conviction with earnings validation on most moves. The biggest open debate is Ackman (MSFT contrarian buy) vs. the crowd, and Tiger vs. consensus on CPNG. Both will be resolved next quarter.