GRAHAM ADVISORS | MACRO — EUROPE | 26 JUL 2026
SPAIN: THE TRUE REALITY OF THE OUTPERFORMANCE
(Country deep-dive, 5pp, 4 exhibits. LC.)
- Spain grows 3x the euro area (2.4% vs 0.9% 2026f, EC Spring) and has closed to within 10% of EU average income. Real, not spin.
- But it is quantity-led: foreign-born = ~2/3 of net job creation since the pandemic. Output per employed person +0.3%; GDP per hour still 7% below EU average.
- Absorptive capacity is the binding constraint: 226k new households in 2025 vs ~83.5k homes completed. Prices +12.9% y/y.
- Unemployment 10.83% (Q1) — still the EU's highest after a five-year boom. Structural, not cyclical.
- Debt falling on nominal growth, not adjustment. No budget passed since 2023; spending ceiling voted down twice in late 2025.
The question is not whether Spain is growing. It is what the growth rate does when immigration moderates and the productivity gap is still open.
Full note attached.
LC / Graham Advisors.
Institutional clients only — not for redistribution.