SpaceX IPO — Initiation + Update | Graham Advisors | 10 April 2026
Please find attached our full initiation note on SpaceX (FR + EN),
updated today to incorporate the definitive 2025 figures published by The Information.
VERDICT UNCHANGED: An extraordinary company at an immoderate valuation.
Key data revisions:
— 2025 revenue: $18.5B (vs. $15.5B estimated)
— Net loss: ~$5B (xAI capex $13B alone — confirmed)
— Core Space/Starlink EBITDA: ~$8B (our estimates validated)
— Revised multiple: ~95x 2025 revenue
— Institutional pushback on $2T valuation: now documented
— xAI CFO departed / co-founders exited / "clearly behind" internal memo
Positioning unchanged:
Hedge Fund L/S — Avoid at IPO
Long-Only — Wait for 30–40% post-listing correction
SWF / Endowment — 0.5–1% initiating position acceptable
Fair institutional entry: $900B–$1.1T
[ATTACHMENT: SpaceX_Graham_EN_10April2026.pdf]
[ATTACHMENT: SpaceX_Graham_FR_10April2026.pdf]