* Tesla – long idea
Compared Tesla to Apple a few years ago
Premiumisation of auto mkt
Tesla – product advantage
Name game min $/kwh, innovation each yr ult worth $10k/car = huge competitive adv vs other auto players
‘Apple of the auto industry’
Efficient money raising to finance growth
Biz model akin to Porsche or Harley Davidson
Ramp much quicker for Tesla though, more like historic growth Ford
Scope $4bn ebit in a few yrs growing 25% pa
* Transocean – short idea
Growth deepwater, oil was above fundam level = last 10 yrs
Shale ‘black swan’ for energy indus
Flattening cost curve for oil price
Growth less energy intensive, gas growing, solar innovations
Shale 18 mths payback vs 15 yrs deepwater
So lots deepwater capex at risk
Drilling 25% deepwater cost
Derating, now earnings collapse
X0.6 p/b , 30% uncontracted for ’15, 50% for ‘16
Think reality on x1.6ish bk