Smartphone forecast update: 2020 shipments to decline -10% on economic slowdown -- Cowen
Analyst Krish Sankar stated, "We are revising our Smartphone market Shipment forecast for CY20/21 owing to an expected economic slowdown in the wake of the COVID-19 virus. We now model for CY20/21 shipments to be -10% Y/Y and +4%, respectively, even with new 5G products ramping through the year. We expect 200M/330M 5G units in CY20/21, or 15%/24% of the tech mix...Given the uncertainties around smartphone demand as the COVID-19 virus continues to unfold in Europe and the US, we take a more cautious view on unit shipments for the remainder of 2020. Given the quarantines in China during C1Q and movement restrictions that are ongoing throughout the rest of the world going into C2Q, we expect an even deeper impact on mobile demand compared to the March Q. As such, we are modeling for Y/ Y unit trends to decline -10% in C1Q and -17% in C2Q. Overall, we are forecasting 2020 smartphone units to decline -10% Y/Y after 2019's -1.5% performance. We expect 5G units to still approach 200M for the year, which is at or modestly below the midpoint of forecasts by major 5G modem chip suppliers."
Analyst Krish Sankar stated, "We are revising our Smartphone market Shipment forecast for CY20/21 owing to an expected economic slowdown in the wake of the COVID-19 virus. We now model for CY20/21 shipments to be -10% Y/Y and +4%, respectively, even with new 5G products ramping through the year. We expect 200M/330M 5G units in CY20/21, or 15%/24% of the tech mix...Given the uncertainties around smartphone demand as the COVID-19 virus continues to unfold in Europe and the US, we take a more cautious view on unit shipments for the remainder of 2020. Given the quarantines in China during C1Q and movement restrictions that are ongoing throughout the rest of the world going into C2Q, we expect an even deeper impact on mobile demand compared to the March Q. As such, we are modeling for Y/ Y unit trends to decline -10% in C1Q and -17% in C2Q. Overall, we are forecasting 2020 smartphone units to decline -10% Y/Y after 2019's -1.5% performance. We expect 5G units to still approach 200M for the year, which is at or modestly below the midpoint of forecasts by major 5G modem chip suppliers."