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SMART MONEY REPORT — Q1 2026 13F Analysis

Crossed with Q1 Earnings Results & Price Performance | May 16, 2026

METHODOLOGY

Each major cross-fund theme is scored on three axes:

TIER 1 — HIGHEST CONVICTION TRADES (Multi-fund consensus + earnings validated)

🟢 GOOGLE (GOOG/GOOGL) — STRONG BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29): EPS $5.11 vs $2.63 est → MASSIVE BEAT +$2.48 | Rev $109.9B vs $107.0B | +21.8% YoY

Verdict: One of the most powerful signals on the sheet. Buffett tripling his Google stake is extraordinary. The Q1 earnings validated the move decisively — the $2.48 EPS beat is one of the largest surprise figures in Mega-cap history. Funds that bought GOOG/GOOGL ahead of the quarter were right. Altimeter's exit looks poorly timed in hindsight.

🟢 META — STRONG BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29): EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 est → BEAT +$3.77 | Rev $56.3B vs $55.6B | +33.1% YoY

Verdict: META's $3.77 EPS beat is exceptional and validates the bulls. The broadly distributed ownership among hedge funds combined with a monster quarter makes this an extremely high-quality signal. ValueAct trimming is likely rebalancing, not a thesis change.

🟢 NVIDIA (NVDA) — BUY SIGNAL (with nuance)

Most Recent Earnings (Feb 25): EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 est → BEAT +$0.08 | Rev $68.1B vs $66.1B | +73.2% YoY (Q4 FY26 — next report upcoming)

Verdict: The split between Altimeter/Tiger (adding aggressively) and Third Point (nearly exiting) is notable. Given NVDA beat its last Q and continues its AI infrastructure supercycle, the buyers appear more aligned with fundamentals. Third Point's exit may reflect portfolio concentration concerns rather than a bearish thesis. Today's price action (-4.4%) tied to geopolitical news, not fundamentals.

🟢 AMZN — BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29): EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 est → MASSIVE BEAT +$1.15 | Rev $181.5B vs $177.3B | +16.6% YoY

Verdict: A $1.15 EPS beat on $181B revenue is enormous. Ackman and Tiger holding/buying AMZN ahead of an outsized beat is a validated thesis. Lone Pine's exit looks premature given the quarter.

🟢 AVGO (Broadcom) — BUY SIGNAL (AI custom silicon theme)

Most Recent Earnings (Mar 4): EPS $2.05 vs $2.03 → BEAT +$0.02 | Rev $19.3B vs $19.3B | +29.5% YoY (slight beat — next Q1 coming)

Verdict: Broad consensus among top funds to add AVGO. The AI custom silicon thesis remains intact. Lone Pine's exit stands out as the lone dissenter among the group.

🟢 TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) — BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 16): EPS $3.49 vs $3.30 → BEAT +$0.19 | Rev $35.9B vs $35.4B | +40.6% YoY

Verdict: TSM delivered a superb quarter — 40.6% YoY growth is exceptional. Tiger and Altimeter bought ahead of the beat. Lone Pine's significant reduction looks like a mistake in retrospect given the quarter's quality.

TIER 2 — HIGH CONVICTION, MIXED EARNINGS SIGNALS

🟡 MSFT — DIVERGENCE SIGNAL (Smart money split)

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29 — MSFT's Q3 FY26): EPS $4.27 vs $4.05 → BEAT +$0.22 | Rev $82.9B vs $81.4B | +18.3% YoY

Verdict: This is the most fascinating divergence of the filing season. MSFT beat earnings, yet some of the best funds were selling heavily. Ackman's buy-while-others-flee is a contrarian signal. His track record of making bold, concentrated bets makes this worth watching. The CNBC report on Ackman's MSFT position drove the stock +3% today. The broader fund selling may reflect rotation into more direct AI plays (NVDA, AVGO, TSM) rather than a bearish MSFT thesis per se.

🟡 UBER — BUY SIGNAL (slight miss, structural story intact)

Q1 Earnings (May 6): EPS $0.72 vs $0.69 → BEAT +$0.03 | Rev $13.2B vs $13.3B → slight rev miss | +14.5% YoY

Verdict: Altimeter's aggressive add ahead of Q1 paid off on EPS but revenue missed slightly. The +42% share increase suggests very high conviction. At +14.5% YoY growth, the structural ride-share / delivery thesis is intact.

🟡 APP (AppLovin) — STRONG BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (May 6): EPS $3.56 vs $3.44 → BEAT +$0.12 | Rev $1.84B vs $1.77B | +58.9% YoY

Verdict: 58.9% revenue growth and an EPS beat make this one of the cleanest "right call" signals. Lone Pine's near-doubling of APP ahead of the quarter is a validated high-conviction trade.

🟡 INTC (Intel) — SPECULATIVE BUY (turnaround bet)

Q1 Earnings (Apr 23): EPS $0.29 vs $0.02 → MASSIVE BEAT +$0.27 | Rev $13.6B vs $12.4B | +7.4% YoY

Verdict: INTC beat by a massive margin on both EPS (+$0.27) and revenue (+$1.2B vs consensus). Two elite macro/growth funds initiating simultaneously, combined with an outsized beat, makes this a credible turnaround signal. Intel's AI chip ambitions and foundry services are the likely thesis.

🟡 DAL (Delta Air Lines) — BUY SIGNAL (Buffett conviction)

Q1 Earnings (Apr 8): EPS $0.64 vs $0.58 → BEAT +$0.06 | Rev $14.2B vs $14.0B | +9.4% YoY

Verdict: Buffett initiating 39.81M shares of DAL is one of the most headline-worthy moves of the filing season. Q1 beat on both EPS and revenue. The Druckenmiller-Buffett divergence on DAL is striking — Druckenmiller exiting while Buffett enters is a classic "passing the baton" in timing.

TIER 3 — CONTRARIAN / BEARISH THESIS TRADES

🔴 CPNG (Coupang) — SELL/EXIT SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (May 5): EPS -$0.15 vs -$0.09 → MISS -$0.06 | Rev $8.5B vs $8.5B (in-line) | +7.5% YoY (decelerating)

Verdict: A rare case of near-unanimous smart money exit validated by a subsequent earnings miss. Three elite funds were right to exit — CPNG missed on EPS and growth is decelerating materially (from 10.9% to 7.5% YoY). Tiger Global's aggressive ADD to 34.6M from 26.3M is the massive contrarian bet. This is the single biggest fund-vs-fund divergence on the sheet.

🔴 TOST (Toast) — CAUTION SIGNAL (Overvalued vs. results)

Q1 Earnings (May 7): EPS $0.20 vs $0.27 → MISS -$0.07 | Rev $1.63B vs $1.63B (in-line) | +21.9% YoY

Verdict: ValueAct is taking a very concentrated, activist-style position. But Q1 missed on EPS, which may create near-term headwind. The +22% revenue growth is solid, suggesting ValueAct is playing a longer-term operational improvement thesis. Remains to be watched.

🔴 RIG (Transocean) — SPECULATIVE / HIGH RISK

Q1 Earnings (May 4): EPS -$0.03 vs $0.08 → MISS -$0.11 | Rev $1.08B vs $1.02B (rev beat) | +19.3% YoY

Verdict: Elliott bought RIG while it missed EPS badly. However, revenue beat and +19.3% YoY growth shows operational momentum. Elliott often takes positions in distressed/operationally improving companies ahead of restructuring catalysts. The offshore drilling cycle could be the thesis — especially as oil just broke $105/bbl today. High risk, high reward.

🔴 TRIP (TripAdvisor) — BEARISH VALIDATION

Q1 Earnings (May 7): EPS -$0.11 vs -$0.07 → MISS -$0.04 | Rev $382.4M vs $384.7M | -4.0% YoY (declining business)

Verdict: TRIP missed and is in revenue decline. Starboard and Einhorn are activist plays — they likely believe the company can be restructured or sold. Soros correctly exited before the miss. This is a pure "sum of the parts" activist bet, not a growth story.

🔴 WULF (TeraWulf) — HIGH RISK SPECULATIVE

Q1 Earnings (May 8): EPS -$1.01 vs -$0.20 → MASSIVE MISS -$0.81 | Rev $34M (in-line) | -1.1% YoY

Verdict: One of the riskiest calls on the sheet. Lone Pine made WULF their largest new position despite the company missing EPS by $0.81 and showing revenue decline. This is a pure crypto infrastructure / AI data center power bet — the thesis is not about current earnings but about future hashrate capacity and power assets. Needs monitoring.

• Elliott Management: massively cut from 51.13M → 30.35M shares (-41%)