Senate voted 51-49 on procedural motion to advance large reconciliation bill to a full Senate vote tonight; House expected to vote Wednesday. The bill includes extension of 2017 tax cuts, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy spending), deregulation, energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion (614.91)
- The bill extends 2017 tax cuts for all income levels with an increased standard deduction. Tax cuts will be made permanent.
- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.
- The bill increases deductions for seniors on Social Security by $4000.
- The bill makes permanent write-offs for business interest expenses and R&D.
- The bill provides $170 billion for border security, construction of a border wall, and deportations.
- The bill phases out solar and wind tax credits beginning in 2026 and will be completely phased out by 2028. The bill will require solar or wind projects to be in service by the end of 2027 to qualify for tax credits. Nuclear power credits will last until 2036. Hydrogen tax credits will be phased out in 2028.
- The bill starts Medicaid work requirements beginning in December of 2026. The Medicaid provider tax will drop to 3.5% by 2032.
- The bill creates a $25 billion fund for rural hospitals.
- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.
- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
- The bill raises the state and local tax deduction to $40,000 for people making $500K or less. SALT cap will go back to $10K after 5 years.
- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.
- The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.
- The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government.
- The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided.
- The bill provides new tax credits for nuclear energy.
- The bill will provide billions for the construction of the "Golden Dome" missile defense shield.
- The bill raises the child tax credit to $2200 from $2000.
- The bill provides additional money for air traffic control and some other defense programs.
Full Bill Text : https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/the_one_big_beautiful_bill_act.pdf
Deficit Impact: The CBO said that the Senate bill will add $3.3 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years. The CBO "estimates that enacting the substitute amendment would increase by 11.8 million the number of people without health insurance in 2034. That amount includes an estimated 1.4 million people without verified citizenship, nationality, or satisfactory immigration status who would no longer be covered in state-only funded programs in 2034."
Deficit Impact: The CBO said that the Senate bill will add $3.3 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years. The CBO "estimates that enacting the substitute amendment would increase by 11.8 million the number of people without health insurance in 2034. That amount includes an estimated 1.4 million people without verified citizenship, nationality, or satisfactory immigration status who would no longer be covered in state-only funded programs in 2034."
What's Next? The Senate will start "vote-a-rama" today at 9:00 ET, which is an unlimited series of amendments. The vote on the final passage of the bill will likely be this evening. Senators Thom Tillis and Rand Paul will vote against it, meaning Republicans can only lose 1 more vote. The House Rules Committee will meet Tuesday night, setting up a final House vote on Wednesday in order to meet President Trump's July 4th deadline for passage. Elon Musk reiterated his opposition to this bill over the weekend.
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