Quick read — UCG "A New Chapter" deck (20-Apr-26, 33pp) -attached
Outside-in escalation document released independently from the voluntary tender offer. Three-act argument: (1) CBK has operationally underperformed SX7E and UCG in 2021-24 and 2025, with 2025 cost miss (~200m) masked by low LLPs, low integration costs, replica NII (+500m vs plan) and intl loan growth (+24% ex-DE/PL vs +1% DE); (2) Momentum FY28 extrapolates this — ~50% of FY24-28 rev growth is replica-driven, zero integration costs 2026-28, negligible buffers; (3) CBK has re-rated +20pp vs sector since Sept-24 UCG stake, not justified by fundamentals (P/E 2yr-fwd 8.2x = SX7E, premium to UCG 7.8x).
Alt plan = Unlocked standalone + Combination with HVB: incremental +2.0bn pre-tax GOP (0.8 Unlocked + 1.1 Combination 2030+), +1.2bn incr. NP / +25% vs Momentum FY28, +c.10pp RoTE. Rebuts 15k DE job cuts → 7k (2k in combo), and rebuts loss-of-DE-independence → DE becomes Group's #1 country, c.95% local decisions.
BBG IB CHAT
UCG/CBK — "A NEW CHAPTER" | 33-pg roadshow deck 20-Apr
- UCG: CBK "Momentum" = more of the same; lagged SX7E/UCG 21-24 & 25 across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE
- 2025: ~200m cost miss hidden by lower LLPs (~130m) + lower integration (~100m) + replica NII (+200m) + intl loans +24% vs DE +1%
- Valuation stretched: CBK P/E 2yr-fwd 8.2x = SX7E, premium to UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since Sept-24 stake — UCG says not fundamentals-backed
- "UNLOCKED" standalone FY28: NetRev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6 vs cons)
- "COMBINATION" (HVB+CBK) FY30 Group: NP c.21bn / RoTE >25 / C/I c.30 / Net Rev c.45bn; DE: NP c.8.5bn / RoAC >30 / C/I c.32
- Value creation: +2.0bn pre-tax GOP (0.8 Unlocked + 1.1 Combo 2030+); +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum; 3.4bn invest + 0.5bn upfront coverage
- Myth vs Reality: 15k DE jobs → UCG 7k (2k combo); 60% savings non-HR/non-core intl; DE = Group #1 country, c.95% local decisions
- Execution: CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations (Alpha RO <9m)
- Any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked & Combination outputs up in parallel — doesn't close the structural gap
- Takeaway: pressure on CBK Board to engage / upgrade Momentum; watch offer document for terms. CBK premium hard to defend if 2026 tailwinds fade
- UCG: CBK "Momentum" = more of the same; lagged SX7E/UCG 21-24 & 25 across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE
- 2025: ~200m cost miss hidden by lower LLPs (~130m) + lower integration (~100m) + replica NII (+200m) + intl loans +24% vs DE +1%
- Valuation stretched: CBK P/E 2yr-fwd 8.2x = SX7E, premium to UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since Sept-24 stake — UCG says not fundamentals-backed
- "UNLOCKED" standalone FY28: NetRev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6 vs cons)
- "COMBINATION" (HVB+CBK) FY30 Group: NP c.21bn / RoTE >25 / C/I c.30 / Net Rev c.45bn; DE: NP c.8.5bn / RoAC >30 / C/I c.32
- Value creation: +2.0bn pre-tax GOP (0.8 Unlocked + 1.1 Combo 2030+); +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum; 3.4bn invest + 0.5bn upfront coverage
- Myth vs Reality: 15k DE jobs → UCG 7k (2k combo); 60% savings non-HR/non-core intl; DE = Group #1 country, c.95% local decisions
- Execution: CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations (Alpha RO <9m)
- Any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked & Combination outputs up in parallel — doesn't close the structural gap
- Takeaway: pressure on CBK Board to engage / upgrade Momentum; watch offer document for terms. CBK premium hard to defend if 2026 tailwinds fade
BBG MSG
SUBJECT: UCG/CBK — "A New Chapter" (20-Apr-26): UCG frames alt plan vs Momentum ahead of tender
UniCredit published today a 33-slide outside-in deck titled "A New Chapter", independently from and ahead of its voluntary tender offer on all Commerzbank ordinary shares. Disclaimer: not an MAR-compliant investment recommendation nor an offering document. Below the main elements for the recipient.
1/ DIAGNOSIS — Operating underperformance, overvalued
- CBK lagged SX7E and UCG across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE in 2021-24 and 2025, with Germany as key drag
- FY24 vs plan: 1.2bn cost miss (25%), 200m fees miss, NII beat from rate tailwinds — i.e. delivery sustained by macro, not transformation
- FY25 vs Momentum: ~200m cost miss offset by ~130m lower LLPs, ~100m lower integration costs (net of tax), intl loan growth +24% vs DE +1%, replica NII +200m vs Momentum (total NII beat ~500m)
- Valuation: P/E 2yr-fwd at 8.2x = SX7E, premium vs UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since 10-Sept-24 stake disclosure — UCG: not fundamentals-driven
2/ MOMENTUM (consensus FY28)
Net Rev 14.0bn / Costs 7.0bn / NP 4.5bn / C/I 47 / RoTE 15 / Net Rev/RWA 7.6
UCG flags: ~50% of FY24-28 rev growth from replica; zero integration cost 2026-28; marginal overlays (150m as of 4Q25); no further invest planned
3/ COMMERZBANK UNLOCKED (standalone)
FY28: Net Rev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / Net Rev c.13.6bn / Costs c.5.7bn / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6)
FY30 dir.: Net Rev >15bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.6.0bn / C/I c.37 / RoTE c.23
+0.8bn pre-tax GOP / 1.7bn investments (IT, channels, pre-pensioning, reskilling) / 0.5bn upfront coverage
Six levers: Refocus DE-Mittelstand-PL / Redesign intl network / Invest+efficiencies / Capital discipline / Client journey upgrade / Tech-AI transformation
4/ COMBINATION (HVB + CBK)
FY30 DE: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.32 / RoAC >30 / Net Rev >18bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.8.5bn
FY30 Group: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.30 / RoTE >25 / Net Rev c.45bn / Costs <14.5bn / NP c.21bn
Incremental: +1.1bn annual pre-tax value 2030+ / 1.6bn addl invest
Perimeter: >600 branches, c.8% DE loan mkt share, 14+1 federated banks, >35m clients, >130bn mcap
5/ MYTH vs REALITY — UCG rebuttals
- "15,000 DE job losses" (Werning, 17-Mar) → c.7k FTE reduction DE, 2k in combo case; 60% savings from non-HR/non-core intl network, 40% non-business central functions
- "No value creation" (CFO Schmitt, 15-Apr) → +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum, +c.10pp RoTE
- "Loss of DE independence" → DE = Group's #1 country by NP, c.95% local decisions, open governance
- "Execution risk" → CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations, Alpha RO <9 months
- "Intl network can't be improved" → UCG 2021-25: -64% costs, +16% rev, -29% avg RWA; 2x CBK trade finance with leaner footprint; only c.15% of DE flows route via CBK's Africa/LatAm presence
6/ TRADE / POSITIONING
- Escalation toolkit ahead of tender — CBK Board under pressure to engage or upgrade Momentum
- Important mechanics: any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked and Combination outputs up in parallel — does not close UCG's structural-gap argument
- CBK premium vs SX7E/UCG increasingly exposed if 2026 delivery disappoints on replica / intl growth
- Watch: offer document for terms & exchange ratio, CBK response, BaFin/ECB positioning, German political reaction
UniCredit published today a 33-slide outside-in deck titled "A New Chapter", independently from and ahead of its voluntary tender offer on all Commerzbank ordinary shares. Disclaimer: not an MAR-compliant investment recommendation nor an offering document. Below the main elements for the recipient.
1/ DIAGNOSIS — Operating underperformance, overvalued
- CBK lagged SX7E and UCG across Net Rev/RWA, C/I, RoTE in 2021-24 and 2025, with Germany as key drag
- FY24 vs plan: 1.2bn cost miss (25%), 200m fees miss, NII beat from rate tailwinds — i.e. delivery sustained by macro, not transformation
- FY25 vs Momentum: ~200m cost miss offset by ~130m lower LLPs, ~100m lower integration costs (net of tax), intl loan growth +24% vs DE +1%, replica NII +200m vs Momentum (total NII beat ~500m)
- Valuation: P/E 2yr-fwd at 8.2x = SX7E, premium vs UCG 7.8x; +20pp re-rating vs sector since 10-Sept-24 stake disclosure — UCG: not fundamentals-driven
2/ MOMENTUM (consensus FY28)
Net Rev 14.0bn / Costs 7.0bn / NP 4.5bn / C/I 47 / RoTE 15 / Net Rev/RWA 7.6
UCG flags: ~50% of FY24-28 rev growth from replica; zero integration cost 2026-28; marginal overlays (150m as of 4Q25); no further invest planned
3/ COMMERZBANK UNLOCKED (standalone)
FY28: Net Rev/RWA c.8.9 (+1.3pp) / C/I c.40 (-7pp) / RoTE >19 (+5pp) / Net Rev c.13.6bn / Costs c.5.7bn / NP c.5.1bn (+0.6)
FY30 dir.: Net Rev >15bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.6.0bn / C/I c.37 / RoTE c.23
+0.8bn pre-tax GOP / 1.7bn investments (IT, channels, pre-pensioning, reskilling) / 0.5bn upfront coverage
Six levers: Refocus DE-Mittelstand-PL / Redesign intl network / Invest+efficiencies / Capital discipline / Client journey upgrade / Tech-AI transformation
4/ COMBINATION (HVB + CBK)
FY30 DE: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.32 / RoAC >30 / Net Rev >18bn / Costs <6bn / NP c.8.5bn
FY30 Group: Net Rev/RWA >9 / C/I c.30 / RoTE >25 / Net Rev c.45bn / Costs <14.5bn / NP c.21bn
Incremental: +1.1bn annual pre-tax value 2030+ / 1.6bn addl invest
Perimeter: >600 branches, c.8% DE loan mkt share, 14+1 federated banks, >35m clients, >130bn mcap
5/ MYTH vs REALITY — UCG rebuttals
- "15,000 DE job losses" (Werning, 17-Mar) → c.7k FTE reduction DE, 2k in combo case; 60% savings from non-HR/non-core intl network, 40% non-business central functions
- "No value creation" (CFO Schmitt, 15-Apr) → +1.2bn incr NP / +25% vs Momentum, +c.10pp RoTE
- "Loss of DE independence" → DE = Group's #1 country by NP, c.95% local decisions, open governance
- "Execution risk" → CBK standalone until 2028; UCG track >100 integrations, Alpha RO <9 months
- "Intl network can't be improved" → UCG 2021-25: -64% costs, +16% rev, -29% avg RWA; 2x CBK trade finance with leaner footprint; only c.15% of DE flows route via CBK's Africa/LatAm presence
6/ TRADE / POSITIONING
- Escalation toolkit ahead of tender — CBK Board under pressure to engage or upgrade Momentum
- Important mechanics: any CBK guidance upgrade on tailwinds shifts BOTH Unlocked and Combination outputs up in parallel — does not close UCG's structural-gap argument
- CBK premium vs SX7E/UCG increasingly exposed if 2026 delivery disappoints on replica / intl growth
- Watch: offer document for terms & exchange ratio, CBK response, BaFin/ECB positioning, German political reaction