TheChek News Flow

Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.38 per share, excluding non-recurring items (see below), $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.35; revenues fell 20.0% year/year to $1.68 bln vs the $1.5 bln consensus. Co reported earnings of $0.40 per share ($340 million) for the first quarter of 2014, a total that included a $69 million ($0.06 per share) special dividend from our investment in Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL) as well as a $38 million ($0.04 per share) non-cash impairment charge related to our investment in Sinofert Holdings Limited (Sinofert). This result compares to the $0.63 per share ($556 million) earned in the same period last year.

• Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of $0.40-0.45 vs. $0.49 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Co issues in-line guidance for FY14, raises bottom end of EPS to $1.50-1.80 from prior guidance of $1.40-1.80 vs. $1.67 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
• Gross margin for the quarter totaled $565 million, below the $867 million generated during the first quarter of 2013. Despite an improving environment for both demand and pricing compared to the final quarter of 2013, realizations in all three nutrient segments lagged behind those of the first quarter last year and negatively impacted our earnings.
• Adjusted earnings before finance costs, income taxes, depreciation and amortization and certain impairment charges2 (adjusted EBITDA) of $745 million and cash from operating activities of $539 million declined 23 percent and 27 percent, respectively from first-quarter 2013.
• First-quarter 2014 potash gross margin of $300 million was below the $504 million generated during the comparable period last year as the favorable impact of lower per-tonne costs and slightly higher sales volumes was more than offset by lower prices.
• Market Outlook Commentary: Recent potash contracts in China and India as well as a strong order book in key spot markets are expected to create an environment that should support robust shipment levels through at least the next two quarters. While we are beginning to see an improvement in rail deliveries help address the backlog of orders from the first quarter, significant product demands are expected to keep pressure on North American carriers. We continue to work closely with our transportation partners to minimize disruptions although these conditions are expected to result in ongoing tight global market fundamentals. For the full year, we maintain our view that global potash shipments could be in the range of 55-57 million tonnes.
• Financial Outlook Commentary: Given a slightly improved potash pricing and demand outlook, we have increased our annual estimate for potash gross margin to $1.1-$1.3 billion and sales volumes to 8.3-8.7 million tonnes. In nitrogen, recent pricing strength has improved the near-term outlook. We anticipate typical seasonal trends will result in slightly weaker margins through the second half of 2014, although our higher sales volumes expectations should partially offset this impact. For the full year, we anticipate total gross margin will remain historically high but trail 2013's total.