PostNL: Bpost might try again; Royal Mail, La Poste and Deutsche Post could be interested too
After Bpost's failed takeover bid for PostNL, other European postal services like Royal Mail, La Poste or Deutsche Post might be interested in the Dutch postal delivery service, reports in several Dutch newspapers noted. It is however unclear how likely a new acquisition round is, the reports said. According to one unnamed insider, Bpost might make another move on PostNL, De Telegraaf reported.
French La Poste and British Royal Mail could also try an acquisition attempt on PostNL, however unnamed market insiders estimate this as an illogical move, De Telegraaf wrote in an analysis of the failed takeover. Deutsche Post is not considered a candidate, because of the dominant position of Deutsche Post subsidiary DHL on the Dutch market, the item noted.
Bpost is still seen as a logical partner for PostNL, De Telegraaf reported. The paper cited one well-positioned unnamed source who thinks it's likely the Belgians will approach PostNL again, unless Bpost is itself targeted by French La Poste.
It is unlikely that a new bidder for PostNL will emerge, Het Financieele Dagblad noted in a front page analysis of the botched deal, which said that Bpost was the best possible candidate. An investment by private equity can not be ruled out either, the report added, naming CVC as a possible contender. The postal service could generate a lot of cash, analyst Marcel Achterberg of Bank Degroof Petercam, said in the report, however in a declining postal market, the company is unlikely to attract a lot of interest, the report noted. In the case of a takeover of a postal service, the two companies have to be geographical neighbours, Het Financieele Dagblad quoted Kepler Chevreux analyst Andre Mulder as saying. This makes Royal Mail an unlikely candidate for PostNL acquisition.
National borders and different operating systems make international deals between postal services unlikely. There are fewer possibilities for cutting costs, NRC Handelsblad reported. However, there might be interest for PostNL's package delivery activities, analyst Maarten Bakker of ABN Amro said in the NRC report. Royal Mail, La Poste and Deutsche Post are the only companies with a pan-European strategy, Bakker said in the article. These companies could be candidates. All three are already active in Holland through subsidiaries. Package deliverer DPD is owned by La Poste, while Royal Mail owns GLS, the item added. However, Bakker said he was not sure whether the parties would be interested in PostNL acquisition.
de Telegraaf, Het Financieele Dagblad, NRC Handelsblad