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LAURENT CHEKROUN | 06 APRIL 2026 | INSTITUTIONAL NOTE
PHARMA/BIOTECH M&A — THE STRUCTURAL BID BENEATH THE SELL-OFF
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CONTEXT: MARKETS SELLING OFF TODAY. USE IT.
The M&A bid follows patent expiry calendars, not the tape.
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I. CONFIRMED DEALS — MARCH 2026: 8 TRANSACTIONS / ~$31BN+ / 25 DAYS
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DATE ACQUIRER → TARGET VALUE AREA
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6 Mar Servier → Day One (BRAF glioma) $2.5bn Rare Onco/Pediatric
20 Mar Novartis → Synnovation/Pikavation (PI3Ka) Up to $3bn Onco/Breast Ca.
25 Mar Merck → Terns Pharma (CML/TERN-701) $6.7bn Onco/Hematology
27 Mar Novartis → Excellergy (food allergy) Up to $2bn Immunology
Mar Gilead → Ouro Medicines (autoimmune) Up to $2.2bn Immunology
Mar Otsuka → Transcend (PTSD) Up to $1.2bn CNS/Psychiatry
31 Mar Lilly → Centessa (OX2R/sleep-wake) Up to $7.8bn CNS/Neuroscience
31 Mar Biogen → Apellis (Syfovre/complement) $5.6bn Immunology/Rare Dis.
Q1 2026 total: $63.3bn (Dealogic) — 5th best quarter in a decade.
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II. PENDING — NOT OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED AS OF 06 APR 2026 OPEN
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NBIX / SLNO — Neurocrine / Soleno | $2.5bn+
Source: Financial Times, 5 April 2026. Advanced talks only.
No press release. Not confirmed on Bloomberg terminal as of this note.
SLNO +23% in pre-market today — strongly signals definitive agreement
is imminent or already executed pending formal announcement.
Price: Low-to-mid $50s per share
Asset: Vykat (diazoxide choline CR) — only approved drug for
hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome. Orphan indication.
$190m revenue in first 9 months post-launch (Mar 2025).
HC Wainwright peak sales estimate: $2.3bn/year.
Note: Securities class action filed 2 Apr (Hagens Berman)
covering SLNO Mar-Nov 2025 — diligenced and priced in.
Key read: Mid-cap buyer (NBIX, $13.2bn market cap) competing
alongside Big Pharma. Bidder universe for quality biotech assets
now extends well beyond the traditional mega-cap acquirers.
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III. THE RUMOR BOARD — 06 APRIL 2026
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▌ACTIVE RUMOURS
NBTX / NANO FP Nanobiotix / JNJ [La Lettre, 25 Mar — denied]
JNJ holds exclusive licence + funds NANORAY-312 Ph3.
NBTX denied same day. VLK analyst: no indication of JNJ interest.
Unlikely pre-data. Watch post-NANORAY-312 readout.
RVMD US Revolution Medicines [Jan 2026]
Daraxonrasib Ph3: pancreatic + NSCLC. MRK offered $28-32bn.
Talks collapsed on price. Deal expected to re-emerge. ~$23bn cap.
ABVX / ABX FP Abivax [Dec 2025 - Jan 2026]
Obefazimod Ph3 UC. Maintenance readout Q2 2026 = binary catalyst.
LLY deployed on Centessa — watch AZN, BMY, SNY. Range €12-20bn.
▌STRUCTURAL CANDIDATES
VKTX Viking Therapeutics Oral/sc GLP-1 ~$7bn NVO/AZN/PFE
GPCR Structure Therapeutics Oral GLP-1 Ph2b ~$4bn PFE/NVO/AZN
CELC Celcuity PI3Ka Ph3 ~$1.2bn NVS/PFE/AZN
TVTX Travere Therapeutics Filspari FSGS ~$2.5bn CSL/REGN/AZN
IVA Inventiva NASH pan-PPAR ~€500m AZN/GSK
MLIT MapLight Pharma Muscarinic CNS ~$1bn BMS/ABBV/JNJ
⚡ IVA FP: Unusual -10.42% intraday on 31 Mar (4.80→3.85→4.30).
No news. NASH Ph3 play. Possible bloc move or rumour leak.
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IV. THE FULL PICTURE
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PATENT CLIFF — $200-300bn at risk by 2030
Keytruda (MRK) $29bn LOE 2028
Eliquis (BMS/PFE) $13bn LOE 2027-29
Darzalex (JNJ) $12bn LOE 2029
Stelara (JNJ) $10bn LOE 2025-26
Opdivo (BMS) $9bn LOE 2028
Cliff = 2-4x the 2011-12 Lipitor era.
Internal R&D replaces ~1/3. Big Pharma dry powder: ~$1.3tn.
DEAL VELOCITY
2024: ~$55bn / ~35 deals (weakest since 2021)
2025: ~$133bn / 50 deals (+133% YoY)
2026E: $140-180bn / 50-60E
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V. WHY TODAY'S SELL-OFF IS THE POINT
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When markets sell off, acquirers' VWAP reference drops.
Premium paid on same asset shrinks. Urgency does not change.
April 2025: XBI -20%. M&A accelerated. XBI +75% from low by Dec.
Today: markets red. 8 confirmed deals in March. A 9th likely printing.
Premiums today (31-42% VWAP Terns / 40.5% VWAP Centessa) will look
cheap by 2027-28 when Keytruda LOE is 12 months away.
The floor is structural. The clock is fixed. Use the dip.
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Laurent Chekroun | Freienbach, Switzerland
Confidential — For Institutional Use Only | 06 April 2026
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