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LAURENT CHEKROUN | 28 MARCH 2026 | INSTITUTIONAL NOTE
PHARMA/BIOTECH M&A — THE STRUCTURAL BID BENEATH THE SELL-OFF
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CONTEXT: MARKETS SELLING OFF TODAY. USE IT.
The M&A bid in pharma/biotech does not follow the tape.
It follows patent expiry calendars — fixed, non-negotiable, arriving on schedule
regardless of what the Fed, tariffs, or Liberation Day 2.0 does to the XBI.
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I. MARCH 2026: CONFIRMED DEALS
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6 transactions / ~$17bn+ / 21 days / 4 continents / 0 macro catalysts
DATE ACQUIRER → TARGET VALUE AREA
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6 Mar Servier → Day One Biopharma (BRAF) $2.5bn Rare Onco/Pediatric
20 Mar Novartis → Synnovation/Pikavation (PI3Ka) Up to $3bn Onco/Breast Ca.
25 Mar Merck → Terns Pharma (CML/TERN-701) $6.7bn Onco/Hematology
27 Mar Novartis → Excellergy (food allergy) Up to $2bn Immunology
Mar Gilead → Ouro Medicines (autoimmune) Up to $2.2bn Immunology
Mar Otsuka → Transcend (PTSD) Up to $1.2bn CNS/Psychiatry
Novartis: two deals in one week.
Servier: 68% premium to spot / 86% to 1M VWAP.
Otsuka (Japan): buyer universe is now global.
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II. THE RUMOR BOARD — STATUS 28 MARCH 2026
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▌HOT THIS WEEK — La Lettre / FT / WSJ active rumours
NBTX / NANO FP — Nanobiotix [La Lettre, 25 Mar]
Asset: NBTXR3 (JNJ-1900), radioenhancer nanoparticle. JNJ holds exclusive
licence and funds NANORAY-312 Ph3 (H&N cancer) since Mar 2025.
Rumour: La Lettre reported JNJ studying full takeover on 25 Mar.
Status: NBTX denied same day — "no intention, no process, factual
inaccuracies in report." Van Lanschot Kempen: "no indication of JNJ interest."
Read: JNJ already controls the asset operationally. A buyout just tidies the
cap table and eliminates future milestone payments. Unlikely pre-NANORAY data.
Mkt cap: ~€500m
RVMD US — Revolution Medicines [Jan 2026]
Asset: Daraxonrasib — RAS(ON) inhibitor, Ph3 pancreatic + NSCLC.
Rumour: MRK in talks at $28-32bn (FT Jan). Talks collapsed on price (WSJ).
AbbVie denied separately. MRK CEO Davis: "multi-tens of billions comfortable."
Status: No deal. Deal expected to re-emerge as Ph3 data matures.
Mkt cap: ~$23bn
ABVX / ABX FP — Abivax [Dec 2025 - Jan 2026]
Asset: Obefazimod — oral UC, Ph3 positive. +1,700% in 2025.
Rumour: La Lettre reported LLY prepared to pay €15bn ($17.5bn).
Status: CEO de Garidel dismissed formal talks Jan 20 ("noise"). French
Treasury review adds procedural complexity. Maintenance data Q2 2026 = key.
Stifel: "deal could happen ahead of readout."
Range: €12-20bn | Mkt cap: ~€8.4bn
▌STRUCTURAL CANDIDATES — analyst consensus M&A targets
VKTX US Viking Therapeutics VK2735 oral/sc GLP-1 ~$7bn NVO/AZN/PFE
GPCR US Structure Therapeutics Aleniglipron oral GLP-1 ~$4bn PFE/NVO/AZN
CELC US Celcuity Gedatolisib Ph3 PI3Ka ~$1.2bn NVS/PFE/AZN
TVTX US Travere Therapeutics Filspari FSGS Apr'26 ~$2.5bn CSL/REGN/AZN
IVA FP Inventiva Lanifibranor NASH Ph3 ~€500m AZN/GSK
MLIT US MapLight Pharma ML-007C-MA muscarinic ~$1bn BMS/ABBV/JNJ
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III. THE FULL PICTURE
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PATENT CLIFF — $200-300bn at risk by 2030
Keytruda (MRK) $29bn LOE 2028
Eliquis (BMS/PFE) $13bn LOE 2027-29
Darzalex (JNJ) $12bn LOE 2029
Stelara (JNJ) $10bn LOE 2025-26
Opdivo (BMS) $9bn LOE 2028
Current cliff = 2-4x the 2011-12 Lipitor era.
Internal R&D replaces ~1/3. The rest must be bought.
Big Pharma deal capacity: ~$1.3tn — most undeployed.
DEAL VELOCITY
2024: ~$55bn / ~35 deals (weakest since 2021)
2025: ~$133bn / 50 deals (+133% YoY — strongest since 2019)
2026E: $140-180bn / 50-60E (IQVIA / L.E.K. / McKinsey)
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IV. WHY TODAY'S SELL-OFF IS THE POINT
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When markets sell off:
> Acquirers' VWAP reference drops
> Premium paid on same asset shrinks
> Industrial urgency does not change
> Sellers with liquidity needs become more willing
April 2025: XBI -20% on Liberation Day tariffs.
M&A did not pause. Accelerated. XBI recovered +75% from low by December.
Merck/Terns (25 Mar): TERN-701's CML data does not care about the Fed.
The patent clock does not pause for risk-off.
RBC: the $400bn revenue gap is "far short" of being addressed by deals to date.
Premiums at 31-42% VWAP today will look cheap by 2027-28.
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BOTTOM LINE
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Six deals. Nine names on the rumor board. Three broken by La Lettre this week.
$1.3tn war chest mostly undeployed. Patent cliff with a fixed arrival date.
Markets are selling off. Biotech is red.
That is the opportunity. Use it.
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Laurent Chekroun | 28 March 2026 | Confidential — Institutional Use Only
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