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LAURENT CHEKROUN | 31 MAR 2026
PHARMA/BIOTECH M&A — QUICK UPDATE
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Markets selling off today. Two more deals just dropped anyway.
TWO NEW TODAY
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LLY / CENTESSA | Up to $7.8bn
$38/sh cash + CVR $9 | Premium 40.5% to 30d VWAP
Asset: Cleminorexton (OX2R agonist) — Ph2a narcolepsy/IH
Read: LLY building CNS franchise alongside GLP-1
Orexin = direct intervention on sleep-wake master switch
BIIB / APELLIS | $5.6bn | $41/sh all-cash
Assets: Syfovre (GA, $500m+ rev) + Empaveli (PNH)
Read: Viehbacher buying a second act — MS declining,
Leqembi slow. Revenue + complement pipeline.
MARCH 2026 SCORECARD
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8 deals / ~$31bn+ / 25 days / no macro catalyst
Servier → Day One $2.5bn Rare Onco
Novartis → Synnovation $3bn Breast Ca.
Merck → Terns $6.7bn CML
Novartis → Excellergy $2bn Allergy
Gilead → Ouro $2.2bn Autoimmune
Otsuka → Transcend $1.2bn CNS/PTSD
Lilly → Centessa ★ $7.8bn CNS/Sleep
Biogen → Apellis ★ $5.6bn Rare/Kidney
RUMOUR BOARD (active this week)
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NBTX JNJ studying takeover (La Lettre 25 Mar) — denied
RVMD MRK at $28-32bn (Jan) — talks stalled, deal expected
ABVX LLY at €15bn — LLY now on Centessa, watch AZN/BMY/SNY
⚡ IVA FP — UNUSUAL VOLUME TODAY
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Inventiva (IVA FP) -10.42% intraday today (31 Mar)
Open 4.80 → Low 3.85 (09:42) → Recovery to ~4.40 → Fade to 4.30
Heavy swings on numbers; should not move the stock like that
Classic pattern for Biotech
IVA is a NASH Ph3 play (lanifibranor, NATiV3 readout 2026) — already
on the structural M&A candidate list. Unusual activity without news
is worth watching on a day when 2 deals just printed.
THE POINT
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The bid follows patent calendars, not the tape.
$200-300bn in drug LOE by 2030. $1.3tn dry powder. Clock is fixed.
Every sell-off = lower VWAP reference for next bid. Buyers win.
Buy quality biotech on weakness. The floor is structural.
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Laurent Chekroun | Freienbach | Confidential / Inst. only
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