Good morning,
Attached is a short note on the shift from closed to open-weight AI models.
The viral "80/20 to 20/80 in 12 weeks" claim is based on one record day at Vercel. On a monthly basis, open models went from about 36% to 56% of tokens between July and August. OpenRouter shows the same trend.
Three takeaways:
- Volume is not value: open models handle 56% of tokens but only about 14% of spend, and Anthropic still takes about 64%.
- Margin is moving from the model layer to infrastructure and applications.
- The open layer is mostly Chinese, and two House committees are now looking into it.
Happy to discuss.
Best regards,
Laurent