quick point of history regarding ooil and teh reason of the move in 1986...Ukraine situation deterioration & IS situation i n Syria and Irak are our 2014/2015 catalyst...we are talking again of a cold war...
I have been comparing these 2 crisis for a few weeks but a a quick refreshing will amybe make you believe that this not only a chart similarity....Read this quick resume of what happened
We could see oil back areound the $46 level then bounce back to test $60 levels before coming back on the lows...stabilization could come in the next 3 to 4 months....
After the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 and the surge in oil prices, the overproduction of oil due to the slowdown in the economy has led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices in the first half of the 1980s This period is often referred "oil Rear shock" has seen the price of oil to a minimum of $ 10 in 1986.This decrease is the result of a political agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production to meet the Western energy needs. Other geopolitical considerations were also taken into account: the fall in oil prices would lead to her lower revenues from the Soviet Union at the time of high export oil, preventing maintain the satellite countries of the block communist.
In the wake of this agreement, most countries in the Middle East and OPEC increased their production in turn. To compensate for the drop in oil prices, they sought to artificially increase production quotas, and for that increased the reported numbers for their reserves pétrole1.
Against the oil shock is so called because it follows the two oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. These two shocks were essentially political reasons: the Yom Kippur War for the first oil crisis, the Iranian revolution and the second oil shock. Therefore, changes in production and oil prices in the years 1970-1980 were mainly driven by international political considerations.
In 2008, after a sharp increase in oil prices since 2003, oil fell sharply again following the 2008 financial crisis, with prices of around $ 40 a barrel. The price of oil went fairly quickly surged to the end of 2010 of about $ 90. However, when we talk about oil against shock, it usually does not refer to the fall of 2008. The geological constraints increase with the inevitable depletion of oil resources, oil extraction costs are bound to increase, resulting long term, considering a constant demand, an increase in hydrocarbon prices.
