Nike: Color on Quarter
NKE shares trading higher by 3% following earnings and futures orders
- Janney Capital Markets says following NKE's 4Q print, they continue to be positively biased on long-term fundamentals but look for a better entry point and/or improved visibility to FY15 upside before getting more constructive. They recognize there is a lot to like about the NKE story: (1) the innovation pipeline is robust, (2) LT global growth remains strong (global futures +12% co currency, with NA +11%, WE +22%, China appears to be inflecting), (3) revolutionary manufacturing (Flyknit, 3D printing LT), which in combination with structural levers (DTC and higher price/margin mix) drives GM expansion, and (4) a strong cash position (~$6/share) supports shareholder-friendly moves.
- Stiffel notes, global constant currency futures growth of 12% was strong but shy of their estimate of 14% (above consensus estimates 11.6%). Upside to their futures estimates in North America (11% vs. their 9%) and Eastern Europe (14% vs. their 9%) was tempered by lower than estimated futures from Western Europe (22% vs. their 24%), Greater China (6% vs. their 7%), Japan (flat vs. their 2% estimate), and the Emerging Markets (9% vs. their 24%). They raised their price target to $89 from $87.
- DA Davidson says moving into FY15, NKE's primary growth engines remain strong. In FY14, 11% c.c. growth was driven by DTC (+22% y/y), soccer (21%), basketball (19%), young athletes' (16%), and women's (12%). Price increases, improving mix, and DTC outgrowth remain on track to continue gross margin expansion; however, double-digit SG&A growth will likely be a muting factor to earnings growth. They look to get more positive on the company with greater conviction that NKE's mid-teens earnings growth target is realizable.
- NKE tgt raised to $90 from $85 at Deutsche Bank
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