Mosaic misses by $0.01, misses on revs (29.93 -1.46)
- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.66; revenues fell 25.7% year/year to $2.68 bln vs the $2.88 bln FactSet Consensus.
- Market outlook:
- Agricultural fundamentals remain constructive, with grains and oilseeds stock-to-use ratios expected to remain pressured for the foreseeable future. While corn and soybean fundamentals and prices have softened recently, growers around the world remain profitable. Constructive long-term agriculture fundamentals and favorable economics incentivize growers to maximize yields. In 2024, the El Nino weather pattern is expected to shift to La Nina, creating a favorable backdrop in Southeast Asia, India and Brazil. Certain parts of the world have gone through two years of under-application of fertilizers, and growers are seeking to replenish soil nutrients.
- For fertilizer demand, as North America is transitioning out of a robust spring planting season, the rest of the world is set to pick up in the coming months. In Brazil, despite the credit and liquidity challenges in the region, low inventory and a favorable demand outlook sets the stage for peak or near peak fertilizer shipments in 2024.
- Global potash supply constraints are likely to continue to abate this year as we see higher exports from Belarus and Russia. However, we also expect strong palm oil fundamentals to drive demand recovery in South East Asia.
- Despite the temporary resumption of China phosphate exports, the favorable overall picture has not changed as domestic agriculture and industrial demand will continue to be prioritized over fertilizer exports in the long term.
- These factors suggest the global potash market is balanced and the phosphate market will remain tight in 2024.
- Expects FY24 total capex of $1.1-1.2 bln