>>> MON/BAYN GR Quick First Thoughts

MON/BAYN GR - SYT/ChemChina has 6.6% gross spread but that deal risk was primarily CFIUS which has been received. DD/DOW is more of a merger of equals (followed by three spins) and has been trading as such - no real spread throughout the deal, though DD had pre-deal premium in it due to activists pushing to break up the company. Initial SYT deal spread was low-teens but moved to high-teens in a very short time.

 

MON deal looks like it is already going to be priced in high-teens, partly due to long closing time frame (end of 2017) combined with higher antitrust uncertainty due industry consolidation (and AGU/POT deal, while an ancillary industry, makes the reviews even more complicated). Downside at 16x P/E of 2017E $5.40 EPS is $86.40/share; a 1x multiple increase is $91.80/share.

 

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