HORMUZ / DAY 12 — NOTE UPDATED | LAURENT CHEKROUN
Sent you the Day 8 note last week. Here is what changed and what I added.
WHAT MOVED SINCE DAY 8
— Brent hit $119.48 intraday Day 10 (WTI same). Largest supply disruption in history per Rapidan. Back to ~$92 today on mixed Trump/Hegseth signals. 36% peak-to-trough swing in 2 sessions — biggest since Apr 2020.
— Trump said war "very complete, pretty much" on CBS → crude -19% in hours. Hegseth same day: "most intense strikes yet." Energy Sec Wright tweeted "tanker successfully escorted through Hormuz" → WTI cratered → tweet deleted → White House confirmed false. $84M ETF market cap evaporated in 10 minutes.
— Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei (hardliner son of Khamenei) as new Supreme Leader. Market pricing longer conflict.
— UNSC Resolution 2817 adopted 11 March: 135 co-sponsors, condemns Iran attacks on GCC, demands Hormuz access.
— Operation Maritime Shield (G7 naval escorts) launched Day 10. No confirmed commercial transit yet.
— IEA 400mb SPR release announced (US 172mb, Japan 80mb). Prices did not hold the bid.
— Iran struck all 6 GCC states. Ruwais refinery (UAE) fire. Ras Tanura (KSA) shut. Sitra refinery (Bahrain) hit. Camp Arifjan (Kuwait) targeted. Duqm and Salalah (Oman) struck — Lloyd's included Omani waters in high-risk zone.
— TTF peaked €64/MWh, currently ~€50. Iraq output -70% (4.3 → 1.3 mb/d). 8+ vessels hit.
WHAT I ADDED TO THE NOTE
— NEW SECTION: Bypass Infrastructure — full analysis of Petroline (KSA, 7mb/d Abqaiq-Yanbu, ramped to full 11 March, but Yanbu terminal cap 4.5mb/d, actual loadings 2.2-2.5mb/d) and ADCOP (UAE, 1.8mb/d Habshan-Fujairah). Combined max bypass ~6.5mb/d vs 20mb/d normal Hormuz flow. Gap of 13.5mb/d has zero alternative route. IEA 400mb SPR = ~20-27 days of missing volume only.
— Zero-bypass producers table: Kuwait (2.6mb/d, force majeure), Iraq (4.3→1.3mb/d, -70%), Qatar (77mtpa LNG, force majeure all output), Bahrain (Sitra struck).
— Scenarios recalibrated: Base Case now $88-100 / 3-6 weeks. Extended $100-120 / 8-10 weeks. Escalation $120-150+ / >3 months. Base Case upper bound was effectively hit Day 10.
— All dates, TTF figures, vessel counts updated to Day 12.
Full note attached — 14 sections, bypass infra, sector scorecard 15 names, FX matrix, ETF positioning table.
Laurent C.