I’ve put together a detailed investment note on Hormuz — thought it might be useful given where things stand on Day 8.
The piece goes beyond the oil price move into what I think markets are genuinely mispricing: the fertilizer producer split, European jet fuel at $1,500/tonne and what that means for IAG and Lufthansa once hedges expire, the Iraq upstream shutdown loop that takes Brent through $100 without Iran needing to fire another drone, and China’s inability to get its own ships through despite the Beijing-Tehran relationship.
Full FX matrix, macro scenarios, and a named-company sector scorecard across 15 positions.
Laurent