Goldman also names Unicredit a top pick, cuts EPS ests for Erste, Unicredit, BNP
• Splits European banks coverage into four regions, U.K., Nordics, Emerging Markets and Eurozone. • Sees provisioning leverage accounting for ~60% net operating profit growth in eurozone, ~30% in EM • Says provisioning leverage now fully played out in Nordics, U.K., operating leverage now accounts for all NOP growth • Raises BBVA 2013 and 2015 ests 4% and 1% to 76c and EU1.02; says 2014 cut 1% to 75c • Leaves Erste Bank PT at EU30 • Cuts Erste EPS ests: 2013 -3% to EU1.65, 2014 -4% to EU2.65, 2015 -3% to EU3.40 • Raises Unicredit PT 23% to EU7.50 - Cuts Unicredit EPS ests: 2013 -9% to 26c, 2014 unch at 47c, 2015 -2% at 73c • Raises BNP PT 3% to EU70 - Cuts BNP EPS ests: 2013 -4% to EU4.50, 2014 -2% to EU6.11, 2015 -1% to €6.75 • Raises ING PT 4% to EU12.30 - Leaves ING EPS ests unch: 2013 at 89c, 2014 at EU1.14, 2015 at EU1.33 • Cuts HSBC PT 5% to 900p - Leaves HSBC EPS ests unch. 2013 at $0.94, 2014 at $1.12, 2015 at $1.27 NOTE: Morgan Stanley said Oct. 23 European Bank Capital Raises Will Be Significant