Tspiras speech last night took a hard tone towards EU bail-out negotiations. Greece will not seek an extension to programme but instead look for a bridging loan til June as they renegotiate the entire programme. EU leaders however have ruled out a bridging loan up til now. Euro lower on this. Greek finance minister puts new proposal in front of Parliament on Wednesday. EU finance ministers meet Wednesday (emergency meeting) with Lagardere and Draghi to discuss this proposal. Greek parliament will hold confidence vote Wednesday also but this will be a formality. Merkel is in US today. Final deadline is 28th when current programme expires. Early March will be when we could get an official default. Banks have the ELA in short-term for funding but without ECB sponsorship this will be short-lived. We think up till now the chance of a Grexit was sub-10% but coming in this morning you have to assume this delta is north of 25% given rhetoric over weekend, the ECB move last week and little compromise from Europeans. Greek banks will be down this morning c.10% and Euro banks will also be lower.