Goldman Sachs on US 2020 elections: Relationship between the economy and presidential election outcomes suggests President Trump has a narrow advantage going into the upcoming election.
- historic surge in midterm turnout creates additional uncertainty regarding n turnout in 2020, in our view. While we do not believe that the midterm election result provides a signal regarding the presidential election, if the changes in turnout seen in 2018 carry over to the 2020 election, it would give the Democratic candidate a meaningful boost